Showing posts with label Timeforms. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Timeforms. Show all posts

Thursday, March 6, 2014

The Irish Challenge at Cheltenham: Timeform's view

"... Faugheen has yet to be extended and tanked along when landing a Grade 3 over three miles at Limerick last time."

Timeform's Irish Handicapper Martin Rigg looks at the Irish challenge in each of the Festival's Grade 1s...

Willie Mullins is currently trading at under 1.51/2 to be the top trainer at the Festival and has a couple of strong contenders for the opening Supreme Novices' Hurdle in Vautour and Wicklow Brave. Ruby Walsh is reportedly leaning towards the former, who maintained his unbeaten record for the yard when making all to beat dual Grade 1 winner The Tullow Tank in the Deloitte Novices' Hurdle at Leopardstown last time, but Wicklow Brave is also on a roll, and the form of his impressive listed win at Punchestown is already working out well with the third that day a Grade 2 winner since. With very little between the pair on form, the ground could be the factor which separates them on the day, with Wicklow Brave looking an out-and-out two miler who will appreciate an emphasis on speed, while Vautour appeals as the sort to see it out better if it develops into a stamina test.

Champagne Fever goes for a third successive Festival victory when he lines up for the second race on Tuesday, the Arkle. His course record entitles him to plenty of respect, but Trifolium also has previous at Cheltenham (third in the 2012 Supreme) and boasts the strongest chasing form among the likely runners after his comprehensive win in the Irish Arkle last time.

Next up is Hurricane Fly's bid for his third Champion Hurdle victory and he looks the clear pick of the Irish challengers after twice inflicting defeat on Our Conor and Jezki at Leopardstown in recent weeks. Our Conor is priced up as if expected to make more of a race of it, but Hurricane Fly was going away from him at the finish last time and the proximity of the veteran Captain Cee Bee in third that day suggests the bare form may not be all that strong in any case. 

Faugheen looks likely to spearhead the Irish Challenge in the Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle, which kicks off day two. Unbeaten in a bumper and three hurdle races, Faugheen has yet to be extended and tanked along when landing a Grade 3 over three miles at Limerick last time. The drop back to 21 furlongs won't inconvenience and he may well show himself to be the most talented Mullins-trained novice in action during the week. 

The same connections' Ballycasey took a tumble in a schooling session after racing at Leopardstown last weekend, but clung onto favouritism for the RSA Chase, and does looks to have good claims if he can put in a clear round when it really matters, having beaten Drinmore winner Don Cossack by four lengths in the Dr P. J. Moriarty last time, with Galway Plate winner Carlingford Lough appearing held when unseating at the last.

With Sizing Europe seemingly not the force of old, and Arvika Ligeonniere's Cheltenham record less than inspiring, it could be that the Irish-trained runners will be playing for places only behind Sire de Grugy in the Champion Chase, but don't rule out a big run from last year's Arkle runner-up Baily Green, who always jumps well and will be suited if conditions are drying out by this stage. 

It's true that Willie Mullins runners have often been sent off at unfeasibly short odds in the Champion Bumper, but he has saddled the last two winners of the race and genuinely looks to have excellent claims of completing the hat-trick, with Black Hercules and Shaneshill vying for favouritism and unbeaten in a brace of bumpers apiece, while Killultagh Vic is another Mullins runner to consider after his wide-margin defeat of last year's Champion Bumper third Golantilla at Naas last month.

A big run in the Arkle by Trifolium would be a positive pointer towards the chance of Felix Yonger in the JLT Novices' Chase, which opens proceedings on Thursday. Felix Yonger went down by nine lengths in the Irish Arkle, but beat Trifolium easily on less testing ground earlier in the campaign and ought to be hard to beat if he can raise his game back away from the mud. 

Benefficient has been prominent in the market for the Ryanair Chase ever since his narrow defeat of Hidden Cyclone in the Dial-A-Bet Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas and beat likely Ryanair favourite Dynaste at the Festival last year, but there is little doubt that David Pipe's runner has achieved the more of the pair since. Last season's Ryanair runner-up First Lieutenant hasn't been out of the first two in three successive appearances at the Festival but has plenty to prove after some below-par performances domestically this term.

The unbeaten Annie Power is the big Irish hope in the World Hurdle, but she hasn't gone beyond two and a half miles before and if Big Buck's turns up at anything like his best she'll need to progress again to overcome him.

The closing day opens with the Triumph Hurdle, in which Guitar Pete bids to provide Our Conor's trainer Dessie Hughes with a second successive win in the race. However, as likeable a type as Guitar Pete is, there is no getting away from the fact that he was put in his place by Royal Irish Hussar when sent over to Cheltenham in November. 

Last year's bumper winner Briar Hill hasn't impressed every observer in extending his unbeaten record over hurdles this season, but there is a strong possibility that he'll improve considerably for the step up to three miles in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle and it is likely to take a very good novice to beat him. 

For all the strength of the Irish party through the week, the Grade 1 in which Ireland holds its weakest claims is arguably the biggest race of all, the Gold Cup. Irish hopes rest largely on Last Instalment, who put in an exhibition round of jumping in winning the Irish Hennessy at Leopardstown, but that was a race he was able to dominate from the front and such a scenario in the Gold Cup is very hard to imagine. 



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Thursday, February 13, 2014

Timeform Morebattle Hurdle: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

Doyly Carte had no chance with Annie Power last time and will find this easier, but narrow preference is for last year's winner Duke of Navan, who's been running at the top level this term and will appreciate the drop in class...

It's the Timeform-sponsored Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso on Thursday! Find out which horses we think will fight out the finish...

Duke of Navan won 3 of his 4 starts last term, including when showing much improved form to land this event. Out of depth in Grade 1s this season and expected to bounce back returned to a much more suitable level.

Bygones of Brid failed to match useful hurdles form over fences despite winning 2 Hexham novices in June. Second back over hurdles at Aintree in October but below par since. Firmly up against it.

Runswick Royal is a bumper winner who landed novices at Sedgefield and Newcastle early last year. Patchy form so far this season but stiffer test here will suit, and can't rule out on these terms.

Special Catch was an unlucky fifth at Aintree on final run last season and has continued on the up this term, winning convincingly at Haydock 8 weeks ago. Will find this tougher but likely to improve again.

Upsilon Bleu was a useful hurdler in France who won a Carlisle novice chase for this yard 11 months ago. Has posted solid efforts to find the frame on all 5 starts since and of interest back over hurdles now.

Doyly Carte won 3 of 5 starts over timber last season and even better form in defeat this term, no chance with Annie Power in Grade 2 event for mares at Doncaster last time. Facing nothing of that calibre here.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Duke of Navan
2. Doyly Carte
3. Special Catch

Timeform View: A race that usually attracts some useful performers and this year's renewal looks a competitive one. Doyly Carte had no chance with Annie Power last time and will find this easier, but narrow preference is for last year's winner Duke of Navan, who's been running at the top level this term and will appreciate the drop in class.


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UAE 2000 Guineas: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

Godolphin haven't always enjoyed great success with their recruits from Australia but few will have had better form than Long John and he should be good enough to win this

The UAE 2000 Guineas is the feature race on another good Meydan card and Timeform provide you with their assessment of the runners...

Safety Check was kept busy as a juvenile, winning 3 times, and would have pushed Emirates Flyer even closer on return had he not had to wait for a run. Already stays 1m but this looks a better race.

Jallota had just the one win for Mick Channon, but did hold his own in some good races, particularly when fourth to No Nay Never in the Prix Morny. Trip not guaranteed to suit on first start for new yard.

Paximadia won 4 of his 8 starts in Australia, including a Grade 2 at Caulfield when last seen. Interesting to see how he goes in the market compared to Long John.

Journeyman is nothing special judged on his 2 starts at Meydan this year, soundly beaten behind Emirates Flyer on return and looked hard work when fifth to He's No Saint last week. Others preferred.

Wednaan cost €450,000, and made a winning debut at Yarmouth last year. Runner-up has at least franked the form and he looks sure to improve a lot for that, so not ruled out despite lack of experience.

Long John won the Caulfied Guineas last year, one of five victories for Peter Snowden. Finished ahead of Shamus Award that day who won the Cox Plate (Long John behind) subsequently so form looks very strong.

My Catch was a  dual winner in France last year for David Brown, his only failure coming on soft ground. Ran well when third to Emirates Flyer on return but step up in trip not guaranteed to suit.

Nezar looked awkward at times last year, but still won twice including a nursery at Chester. Didn't put up much resistance behind Emirates Flyer on return and shouldn't be good enough.

Asmar is a half-brother to the top class Zagora (Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner) and has shaped with plenty of promise in a pair of maidens at this track. Will need to break on terms in this company.

Emirates Flyer can't be knocked for toughness or consistency, and made it 3 wins from 7 starts when beating Safety Check here last time. Should be fine at the trip but this is a better race.

Full Combat has one win from his 4 starts in South Africa last year, and not totally disgraced in a Grade 1 on his final start. Eyecatching return when fifth to Emirates Flyer and could easily reverse form.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Long John
2. Full Combat
3. Asmer

Timeform View: Godolphin haven't always enjoyed great success with their recruits from Australia but few will have had better form than Long John and he should be good enough to win this. Full Combat can improve past several who contested the prep for this race and chase him home whilst a big run from the maiden, Asmar, wouldn't surprise, although he does need to break better than he has done to date.


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Sunday, August 11, 2013

Epsom Derby: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

The unbeaten Dawn Approach is a confident selection to confirm his stamina and become the third 2000 Guineas winner in the last 5 years to follow up at Epsom...

Timeform analyse the chances of each runner in the 2013 Derby... 

Battle of Marengo has done little wrong since debut, improving again when winning Derrinstown Trial at Leopardstown, beating Criterium winner Loch Garman. Step up in trip will suit in first-time cheekpieces.

Chopin was supplemented for $75,000 by new owner on back of impressive 8-length success in 8.5f Group 3, beating subsequent German Guineas runner-up. Certain he has more to offer stepped up in trip.

Dawn Approach is a top-class and unbeaten son of the 2008 Derby winner New Approach, and was most impressive when winning the Guineas on return last month by 5 lengths. Potential stamina doubt looks the only chink in his armour.

Festive Cheer was an easy winner of a Dundalk maiden at 2 yrs that worked out well and improved again when narrow third in 11f Longchamp Group 2 on return. Further step up in trip will suit.

Flying The Flag is out of the Irish Guineas and Nassau winner Halfway To Heaven, but looks down the Ballydoyle pecking order here having been held in the French and Irish Guineas so far this year.

Galileo Rock looks all stamina, closely related to high-class stayer Saddler's Rock. Not beaten far in 1¼m Sandown Classic Trial on return and will relish longer trip, but possibly more of a Leger type.

Libertarian was held by Galileo Rock at Sandown but dented some lofty reputations when running out impressive winner of the Dante subsequently, finding plenty. Step up in trip will suit but a lot more needed here.

Mars was favourite for this even before he won 7f Dundalk maiden in good style last summer. Encouraging sixth in the Guineas only run since and will have plenty more to offer over middle distances.

Mirsaale booked his place in the field with success in the 1¼m trial at the course in April. Longer trip will be no problem but has a mountain to climb on form to get involved.

Ocean Applause is a fairly useful maiden but hasn't beaten another rival on his last 2 starts. Impossible to make a case for in refitted headgear.

Ocovango is an unbeaten French-trained colt who made all readily in 1¼m Group 3 Prix Greffulhe last month. Trainer landed same race before scoring in this with Pour Moi in 2011 and should improve up in trip.

Ruler of The World is a Galileo half-brother to Duke of Marmalade. Another trial winner for Ballydoyle when running away with Chester Vase in first-time cheekpieces, storming clear. Respected with stamina assured.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Dawn Approach
2. Mars
3. Chopin

Timeform View: The unbeaten Dawn Approach is a confident selection to confirm his stamina and become the third 2000 Guineas winner in the last 5 years to follow up at Epsom. Ballydoyle will clearly have a major say over how matters unfold with Mars and Battle of Marengo arguably the pick of their hopefuls, while Chopin, the first-ever German-trained runner in the race, can also reach the frame.

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Friday, May 10, 2013

Ormonde Stakes: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

"Mount Athos has finally realised his potential since joining this yard, completing hat-trick in Group 3 at Newbury before good fifth in Melbourne Cup..."

Timeform provide you with a runner-by runner guide to the feature race on the final day of Chester's May meeting, the Ormonde Stakes...

Communicator is generally still on the upgrade, showing useful form when taking 1½m handicap here in August. Good efforts in defeat since but bit to find with principals on return.

Mad Moose is a seful handicap hurdler/chaser but has refused to race last 2 starts in that sphere. Showed near-useful form when winning Doncaster maiden on belated Flat bow 2 weeks ago but this is a big ask.

Memphis Tennesse has quickly progressed into a smart performer at 3, making frame in Derby/Irish Derby. Made all in this event on return last year before shaped as if amiss in Hardwicke. Big player if on form.

Mount Athos has finally realised his potential since joining this yard, completing hat-trick in Group 3 at Newbury before good fifth in Melbourne Cup. Latest run easily forgiven and leading conteder.

Zafarqand is a stoutly-bred gelding who made a highly promising start when second in Gowran maiden 13 months ago for John Oxx. Not seen since, however, and facing a tall order on debut for new yard.

Luthien has little solid form over a variety of trips and hopelessly out of her depth.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Mount Athos
2. Memephis Tennesse
3. Communicator

Timeform View: This looks a match between Mount Athos and Memphis Tennessee. The latter won this cosily on his return last year but there are slight doubts about his wellbeing given he's not been seen since finishing tailed off at Royal Ascot in June, so Luca Cumani's charge is marginally preferred.

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Huxley Stakes: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

Andrew Balding holds a strong hand with Highland Knight and Bonfire, and it's the former who gets the vote after his good second in a Group 2 at Sandown recently...

Timeform analyse each runner in a competitive renewal of the Huxley Stakes at Chester...

Bonfire landed the Dante on return last year but rather let down by his flighty temperament thereafter. Just a respectable third in Group 3 at Newmarket on reappearance and needs to build on that.

Danadana made giant strides last year, scoring at Newmarket, Redcar and York. Looks ready for a step up in grade on return for in-form yard.

Dick Doughtywylie won a maiden over C&D in 2011, and belatedly back to that form to land a minor event at Doncaster last September. Good fifth in Group 3 at Sandown on return but another step up required.

Gabrial progressed well at 3 yrs, landing Silver Bowl at Haydock, and looked better than ever when winning listed race at Doncaster on return, albeit hanging badly right. Worth another try at this trip.

Highland Knight was better than ever last year, winning listed race at Pontefract and Group 2 event at Baden-Baden. Better for return when second in Group 2 at Sandown last time and strong contender if seeing out trip.

Miblish posted some creditable efforts in defeat in 2012 and has improved again both starts this year, making all in listed event at Kempton last time. More needed but that entirely possible.

Rewarded walked over on return last year before following up in 1m handicap at Newmarket in May. Not disgraced in better company since but likely to prove vulnerable again.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Highland Knight
2. Danadana 
3. Bonfire

Timeform View: Andrew Balding holds a strong hand with Highland Knight and Bonfire, and it's the former who gets the vote after his good second in a Group 2 at Sandown recently. Gabrial and Danadana also need considering.

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Thursday, April 25, 2013

Punchestown Gold Cup: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

"Sir Des Champs has graduated into a top-class chaser this term, winning Irish Hennessy before giving best only late on when second to Bobs Worth..."

Timeform guide you through a fascinating renewal of the Gold Cup, staged at 17:30 on Wednesday...

Captain Chris won at this meeting in 2011. Better than ever when second in King George (beaten neck by Long Run) and Ascot Chase this term, but needs to bounce back from below-form sixth in Gold Cup last time.

Chicago Grey got back to best when springing a bit of a surprise in Navan Grade 2 in February. Probably best to forgive subsequent poor run in Grand National but biting off more than he can chew at this level.

First Lieutenant has posted solid efforts at the top level since tried in cheekpieces, second in Lexus and Ryanair before going one better in Betfred Bowl at Aintree earlier this month. Sure to give it his usual good shot.

Kauto Stone beat First Lieutenant at Down Royal in November. Flopped in King George next time and no better back over hurdles in January, but wouldn't be a massive shock if he bounced back after short break.

Long Run wore down Captain Chris to land a second King George in December. Good third in Gold Cup in cheekpieces (on again), but has 2¾ lengths to make up with Sir des Champs on that running.

Quito De La Roque is a high-class chaser who returned to best to win Thurles Grade 2 in January and another good effort when fourth to First Lieutenant at Aintree last time. Likely to come up little short again.

Riverside Theatre was a top-class performer at his best, winning Ascot Chase and Ryanair last season. Better effort this term when fourth to Cue Card at Cheltenham last time but was never going with much fluency.

Sir Des Champs was unbeaten during his novice season and has graduated into a top-class chaser this term, winning Irish Hennessy before giving best only late on when second to Bobs Worth in Gold Cup last time.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Sir Des Champs
2. First Lieutenant
3. Long Run

Timeform Verdict: A cracking renewal of this Grade 1 prize. Sir Des Champs is likely to be tough to beat if fully recovered from a hard race in the Gold Cup, with the same owner's First Lieutenant just preferred to Long Run for the forecast spot.

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Friday, April 5, 2013

Grand National 2013: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

Timeform take you through all 40 horses scheduled to line up in the 2013 Grand National.

Imperial Commander (trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies/jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies) is bidding to become the third Gold Cup winner (after Golden Miller and L'Escargot) to also land the Grand National, and is potentially very well treated on his 2010 Gold Cup form despite top weight here. He's had training setbacks since his comeback second at Cheltenham in January, will be without regular jockey Paddy Brennan (suspended) and has stamina to prove, though.

What A Friend (Paul Nicholls/Sam Thomas) was among the favourites off just a 1 lb lower mark when pulled up in the 2011 Grand National but has been operating below his best since, his attitude looking suspect, and he's likely to be among the outsiders this time around.

Weird Al (Donald McCain/Timmy Murphy) is a high-class chaser on his day, but is fragile and has been far more out than in over past 15 months, while he didn't really take to the course prior to falling four out (when beaten) in this race last year.

Quel Esprit (Willie Mullins/Paul Townend) has clearly been campaigned with this race in mind and shaped well until the lack of a recent run told behind Sir des Champs in the Irish Hennessy on his belated return. Has been given a chance by the handicapper, but three big-race falls earlier in his career does rather temper enthusiasm.

Big Fella Thanks (Tom George/Denis O'Regan) has completed on all four tries over these fences, including when fourth in the 2010 Grand National, and has been revitalised by a change of yards this winter, proving as good as ever when winning at Wincanton in January. However, that was over a much shorter trip and he has always been found wanting for stamina in this race.

Seabass (Ted Walsh/Katie Walsh) was sent off joint-favourite when finishing five lengths third to Neptune Collonges in this race a year ago, jumping impressively and tiring only after the last. He's ultra-consistent (finished a perfectly respectable third to Roi du Mee at Fairyhouse on recent chase return) and should give another good account, but 5 lb higher mark this time round might just stop him winning.

Roberto Goldback (Nicky Henderson/Barry Geraghty) is trained by Nicky Henderson, who has yet to saddle a Grand National winner, and this giant 11-year-old is his sole hope this year. Ran out a wide-margin winner at Ascot on his debut for the yard in the autumn and has slipped back down the weights since, so could perform better than recent form figures suggest he might.

Sunnyhillboy (Jonjo O'Neill/Richie McLernon) was pipped by Neptune Collonges in the closest-ever Grand National finish last year, when he took surprisingly well to the course considering he'd had jumping issues earlier in his career. He has been restricted to just two hurdling starts since (withdrawn from Gold Cup following a bad scope) and 10 lb higher mark could leave him vulnerable.

Ballabriggs (Donald McCain/Jason Maguire) provided the McCain family with their fifth Grand National win in 2011, the first three of which came courtesy of Red Rum. That horse remains the only multiple National winner in the past 77 years, with Ballabriggs managing only sixth when defending his crown in 2012, and he hasn't really shown enough this season to suggest he'll be up to taking advantage of a slipping mark.

Teaforthree (Rebecca Curtis/Nick Scholfield) narrowly failed to justify favouritism in the Welsh National in January and would probably be even shorter in the betting here but for a rare poor run next time, when he was possibly still feeling effects of that Chepstow effort. His prominent style of racing, combined with notably fluent jumping technique, has long marked him down as an ideal candidate for the Grand National.

Across The Bay (Donald McCain/Henry Brooke) has proved better than ever since joining Donald McCain last season, winning decent prizes over both fences and hurdles this winter, but his lazy style of racing, plus sometimes suspect jumping, are far from ideal for Aintree and he's likely to struggle with conditions forecast to be less than testing.

Join Together (Paul Nicholls/Daryl Jacob) has long appealed as an out-and-out stayer, whilst he also took well to these fences when a fast-finishing second in the Becher Chase in December. His last run at Doncaster is easily overlooked (badly hampered early) but he looks plenty high enough in the weights now, while he sometimes doesn't live up to expectations on the big-race stage.

Colbert Station (Ted Walsh/AP McCoy) represents the same stable as 2000 winner Papillon- as well as Seabass- and appeals as one of the most progressive runners in the field, having won the valuable Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Colbert Station remains open to improvement and is the choice of champion jockey AP McCoy (who could also have ridden Sunnyhillboy), though he arguably lacks experience for this test having had only had five starts over fences. 

Forpadydeplasterer (Tom Cooper/Andrew J McNamara) isn't the force of old, despite winning a three-mile minor event at Thurles back in the autumn, and stepping into a huge unknown with regards to the trip (best form at up to 21 furlongs). Others make much more appeal.

On His Own (Willie Mullins/Ruby Walsh) looked a natural over these fences in this race 12 months ago until hesitating and coming down at second Becher's. Jumping could again be his Achilles' heel given his relative lack of experience, but he's racing off the same mark and looked better than ever in his comeback win over hurdles. He's a must for the shortlist with Ruby Walsh taking over in the saddle.

Joncol (Paul Nolan/Robbie Power) was a dual Grade 1-winning chaser in 2009/10, but he's seemingly not the force of old nowadays (has hinted at a physical problem) and is easy to oppose here even though his allotted handicap mark reflects his slide.

Balthazar King (Philip Hobbs/Richard Johnson) is an enthusiastic front runner who has done very well since trying his hand at cross-country chasing, the same route taken by 2007 Grand National winner Silver Birch, but looks to be plenty high enough in the weights now.

Cappa Bleu (Evan Williams/Paul Moloney) represents connections who have made the frame in each of the last four Grand Nationals, and finished a staying-on fourth himself behind Neptune Collonges in 2012. Arguably left with too much to do on that occasion, so he's very much one to consider off a 2 lb lower mark this time around, particularly after an encouraging second at Ascot on his final prep run.

Oscar Time (Martin Lynch/Sam Waley-Cohen) is ridden by amateur jockey Sam Waley-Choen, who has a terrific record over these fences, most famously when pairing up with Oscar Time (off this mark) to finish second to Ballabriggs in the 2011 National. However, the horse is now 12 and hasn't looked the force of old this winter.

Always Waining (Peter Bowen/Tom O'Brien) reserves his best for these fences nowadays, having won the last three renewals of the Topham Chase, held the day before the National. Finally gets his chance to tackle this race, but he has always looked a non-stayer over this sort of trip and connections would have surely been better off going for the shorter race again.

Tatenen (Richard Rowe/Andrew Thornton) won at Ascot from a 1 lb lower mark in January of last year, but doesn't stay beyond three miles and unseated his rider at the first Canal Turn in last year's National, while his form since has been patchy.

Treacle (Tom Taaffe/Andrew Lynch) is a smart stayer and comes here fresh after a light campaign, winning a minor event at Down Royal last month. Didn't really take to these fences in the 2012 race, however, already a fair way back when falling at the tenth.

Lost Glory (Jonjo O'Neill/Mark Walsh) was a prolific winner over both hurdles and fences during early months of both 2011/12 and 2012/13, though he hasn't been seen since winning at Chepstow back in October and likely to find this too tough.

Swing Bill (David Pipe/Conor O'Farrell) has coped pretty well on three of four tries over these fences, though fourth place in this season's Becher Chase is the closest he's come to winning and he will surely find it too much to win this race off a career-high mark at the age of 12.

Saint Are (Tim Vaughan/Dougie Costello) clearly suits Aintree in the spring, as his two wins over jumps have come in big races at this meeting in 2011 and 2012. Sketchy jumping strongly suggests that he won't be completing the hat-trick in the biggest test of all, however.

Chicago Grey (Gordon Elliott/Paul Carberry) had been without a win since the 2011 Cheltenham Festival until springing a surprise at Navan in February, shortly after the Grand National weights were announced. He's duly one of the best-handicapped runners, so clearly warrants respect for all the jumping issues he's had in the past (admittedly not at fault when making an early exit in this race last year).

Quiscover Fontaine (Willie Mullins/David Casey) shaped quite well until falling at the seventeenth when an outsider in the 2012 renewal, but hasn't offered much in three starts this winter, whilst both his trainer and owner appear to have far stronger candidates elsewhere.

Rare Bob (Dessie Hughes/Bryan Cooper) has gone without a win for some time, but he's much better handicapped than that might suggest: he's actually weighted to reverse placings with Seabass from Fairyhouse in February. A strong-travelling sort who usually jumps well (brought down at the fifth in 2012 Grand National), he holds strong each-way claims.

The Rainbow Hunter (Kim Bailey/Aidan Coleman) is trained by Kim Bailey, who saddled Mr Frisk to National glory in 1990, but unfortunately this nine-year-old isn't anything like so fluent a jumper as that one and those jumping frailties must temper enthusiasm here, for all he's looked an improved performer this winter.

Becauseicouldntsee (Noel Glynn/Martin Ferris) is a giant gelding but he didn't last long in either the 2011 (fell second) or 2012 (unseated eighth) renewals of this race. Hinted at a return to form with a tongue strap fitted at Cheltenham last month, but still easy to oppose here.

Harry The Viking (Paul Nicholls/Ryan Mahon) has been disappointing since finishing runner-up to Teaforthree over 4m at last year's Cheltenham Festival, but probably needed run there last time and may well emerge as best of the Paul Nicholls trio, though that still may not be good enough.

Mr Moonshine (Sue Smith/Peter Buchanan) is undoubtedly useful on his day, finishing second in a Grade 3 at Wetherby over Christmas from a 1 lb higher mark than this, but he's folded tamely on both starts since and is difficult to fancy here.

Mumbles Head (Peter Bowen/Jamie Moore) enjoyed something of an Indian summer during early months of 2012/13. Often let down by jumping in big-field handicap chases, however, and fell heavily at the first fence in the Becher Chase in December.

Ninetieth Minute (Tom Taaffe/Niall Madden) won the Coral Cup in a past life, but his form over fences has been patchy and seldom anywhere near as good, so he's very difficult to fancy. 

Auroras Encore (Sue Smith/Ryan Mania) often comes into his own at this time of year, including when finishing a narrow runner-up in the Scottish National last term. Potentially well handicapped on that effort, but form has been very in-and-out since.

Tarquinius (Gordon Elliott/Wilson Renwick) was much improved after joining Gordon Elliott last summer, winning three times and finishing a narrow second in the Thystes Chase since. He's handicapped right up to his best now and will need to find oodles of improvement.

Any Currency (Martin Keighley/Ian Popham) tends to save his best for marathon events, a trend which has continued this season, but has looked exposed from this mark of late and is probably too lazy to make an impact in this. He also failed to complete on his only start over these fences.

Major Malarkey (Nigel Twiston-Davies/Tom Scudamore) has become a feature in decent staying handicaps, his best effort this season coming when a neck second in the London National in December, but he's without a win in well over two years and is unlikely to break that pattern in the Grand National.

Soll (Jo Hughes/Mark Grant) got back to his best when making all at Sandown last month, when he was aided by a very bold display of jumping. He should stay long distances, but he found it all too much in both the Hennessy and Welsh National earlier in the season and this will be no easier.

Viking Blond (Nigel Twiston-Davies/Adam Wedge) tends to go from the front, a tactic which has brought some success, notably when he finished third in a Grade 3 at Cheltenham in November. Bad days far outnumber his good ones, though, and weak finishes on two of his last three starts hardly encourages.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. On His Own
2. Rare Bob
3. Cappa Bleu

Timeform view: On His Own's market position looks justified and he can become the first winner from Ireland since 2007. Gordon Elliott was the last trainer to take the prize back across the Irish Sea and saddles the potentially well-handicapped Chicago Grey. At a bigger price Rare Bob makes plenty of each-way appeal for Dessie Hughes, while Cappa Bleu is unlikely to be far away again with a clear round.

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Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Queen Mother Champion Chase: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

Sprinter Sacre is unbeaten in seven starts over fences, beating Cue Card impressively in the Arkle last term. Imperious when landing Tingle Creek and Victor Chandler this season, and hard to envisage defeat here.

Timeform take you through the 2013 renewal of the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Mail de Bievre Was a smart chaser in France, winning 3 times at up to 2¾m. Shorter trip likely to suit after impressing for a long way in Denman Chase on British debut, but still plenty to find.

Sanctuaire bounced back from a poor show behind Sprinter Sacre to land Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton, but slammed again by that rival reverting to waiting tactics last time, and bit to prove now.

Sizing Europe won this in 2011 and second last year. As good as ever in 4 runs this season, readily landing sixth Grade 1 over Christmas, but may need Sprinter Sacre to underperform to regain his crown.

Somersby deservedly landed a big prize when winning Victor Chandler last season. Cheekpieces refitted after performing slightly below best for new yard this term, but likely to struggle again.

Sprinter Sacre is unbeaten in seven starts over fences, beating Cue Card impressively in the Arkle last term. Imperious when landing Tingle Creek and Victor Chandler this season, and hard to envisage defeat here.

Tataniano is a fine jumper who has been lightly raced in recent times, making all to score on sole outing at Chepstow last season, but below best both comeback runs before Christmas, and out of his depth here.

Wishfull Thinking has come back to very best this season, scything down rivals late to land a Grade 2 at Newbury in February. Not the easiest to predict, though, and did fall early in this race a year ago.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Sprinter Sacre
2. Sizing Europe
3. Wishfull Thinking

Timeform's view: While the presence of potential front runners Sizing Europe and Mail de Bievre should ensure a thrilling spectacle, the race is likely to be set up perfectly for the strong-travelling Sprinter Sacre, who has looked nigh on unbeatable this term. Sizing Europe is still a top-class force on his day and can prove best of the rest, while Wishfull Thinking, often patiently ridden these days, may pick up the pieces for third.

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Champion Hurdle: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

"Hurricane Fly has looked irresistible so far this season with his preparation having gone much smoother than 12 months ago..."

Timeform analyse the feature on the opening day of Cheltenham 2013, the Champion Hurdle...

Balder Succes gained sole win this season in minor event at Haydock and has had limitations exposed at a higher level, running about as well as could be expected when third to Zarkandar at Wincanton last time.        
Binocular won Champion Hurdle in 2010 and 6½ lengths fourth to Rock On Ruby 12 months ago. Encouraging return when third to easy winner Hurricane Fly in Irish Champion and should be in hunt for minor honours.        
Cinders And Ashes completed a 4-timer when successful in 2012 Supreme Novices'. Not at best in testing conditions in his 2 runs this term, fifth in Christmas Hurdle latest outing. Something to prove now.            
Countrywide Flame was a game winner of Triumph Hurdle, and stepped up again with easy success in Fighting Fifth on return. Stuck to task behind Rock On Ruby after forcing pace at Doncaster latest, but more needed.      
Grandouet beat Overturn in Grade 2 here in 2011 and excellent second to Zarkandar in corresponding race when next seen. Missed prep race due to minor problem but okay now and looks a leading player.                  
Hurricane Fly won 2011 Champion Hurdle and unbeaten since third in 2012 renewal, easily accounting for Thousand Stars and Binocular in Irish Champion last time. Every chance of reclaiming crown.                
Khyber Kim finished second to Binocular in this in 2010. Rejoined Nicky Henderson/off nearly 2 years before fair return when runner-up to Zarkandar at Wincanton, but even pick of best form sees him fall short.        
Rock On Ruby's best performances last 2 seasons have come at the Festival, winning well-run Champion Hurdle 12 months ago. May not get similar end-to-end gallop this time, but in good form, and now blinkered.              
Zarkandar's only defeat when completing over jumps came when fifth in this last year and looks an improved performer this season, beating 2 of these in International here in December. Bold bid expected.        
Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Hurricane Fly 
2. Zarkandar
3. Grandouet

Timeform Verdict: Hurricane Fly can become only the second horse to regain the Champion Hurdle title after Comedy of Errors (1975). He's looked irresistible so far this season with his preparation having gone much smoother than 12 months ago. Rock On Ruby may not have the race go as ideally for him as it did last year, so bigger dangers could emerge in the shape of Zarkandar, unbeaten this term, and Grandouet.            

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Monday, March 11, 2013

Champion Hurdle: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

"Hurricane Fly has looked irresistible so far this season with his preparation having gone much smoother than 12 months ago..."

Timeform analyse the feature on the opening day of Cheltenham 2013, the Champion Hurdle...

Balder Succes gained sole win this season in minor event at Haydock and has had limitations exposed at a higher level, running about as well as could be expected when third to Zarkandar at Wincanton last time.        
Binocular won Champion Hurdle in 2010 and 6½ lengths fourth to Rock On Ruby 12 months ago. Encouraging return when third to easy winner Hurricane Fly in Irish Champion and should be in hunt for minor honours.        
Cinders And Ashes completed a 4-timer when successful in 2012 Supreme Novices'. Not at best in testing conditions in his 2 runs this term, fifth in Christmas Hurdle latest outing. Something to prove now.            
Countrywide Flame was a game winner of Triumph Hurdle, and stepped up again with easy success in Fighting Fifth on return. Stuck to task behind Rock On Ruby after forcing pace at Doncaster latest, but more needed.      
Grandouet beat Overturn in Grade 2 here in 2011 and excellent second to Zarkandar in corresponding race when next seen. Missed prep race due to minor problem but okay now and looks a leading player.                  
Hurricane Fly won 2011 Champion Hurdle and unbeaten since third in 2012 renewal, easily accounting for Thousand Stars and Binocular in Irish Champion last time. Every chance of reclaiming crown.                
Khyber Kim finished second to Binocular in this in 2010. Rejoined Nicky Henderson/off nearly 2 years before fair return when runner-up to Zarkandar at Wincanton, but even pick of best form sees him fall short.        
Rock On Ruby's best performances last 2 seasons have come at the Festival, winning well-run Champion Hurdle 12 months ago. May not get similar end-to-end gallop this time, but in good form, and now blinkered.              
Zarkandar's only defeat when completing over jumps came when fifth in this last year and looks an improved performer this season, beating 2 of these in International here in December. Bold bid expected.        
Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Hurricane Fly 
2. Zarkandar
3. Grandouet

Timeform Verdict: Hurricane Fly can become only the second horse to regain the Champion Hurdle title after Comedy of Errors (1975). He's looked irresistible so far this season with his preparation having gone much smoother than 12 months ago. Rock On Ruby may not get the end-to-end gallop he did last year, so bigger dangers could emerge in the shape of Zarkandar, unbeaten this term, and Grandouet.            

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Friday, March 8, 2013

Imperial Cup: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

"Tominator was a useful stayer on Flat who is progressing over hurdles and is the type to do well now handicapping in this sphere..."

Timeform guide you through the field for Saturday's feature event, the Imperial Cup at Sandown...

Tanerko Emery has been most progressive since switched to this yard, landing novice at Stratford and handicaps over C&D and Lingfield before excellent third in Welsh Champion Hurdle last month. Likely to improve further.

Mr Mole landed Hereford bumper on debut and won on hurdling bow at Exeter (17f) in October. Made mockery of lenient initial mark when beating Home Run at Taunton last month and 12 lb rise looks fair.

General Miller was a leading novice hurdler in 2009/10. Very lightly raced since, fine second to Overturn in 2m Perth handicap in August 2011 and not knocked about when down field on return at Ascot last month.

Valdez was a dual-bumper scorer who didn't take long to do likewise over hurdles this term, landing odds at Huntingdon and Plumpton. Good third under double penalty at Doncaster since, and not dismissed.

Claret Cloak was a bumper winner who ended last season with brace of novice wins over 2m. Shaped well when third in listed handicap at Ascot on return and excused below par run on soft ground in Betfair Hurdle since.

Arnaud won 2m maiden at Limerick last term and fifth in Fred Winter at Cheltenham. Back to best when second in minor event at Cork in January, and though found out in Grade 2 next time is still worth a look.

Shammick Boy was a dual hurdles winner in 2011 who was hit and miss over fences last season, but back to best over timber when beating Whitby Jack in 2m Chepstow handicap 2 weeks ago. Should go well again.

Le Bacardy was prolific in France in 2012, winning 5 times. Claimed for £12,520 in December and better than ever to take 2m Newbury handicap earlier this month. 12 lb rise will make life tougher here, however.

Kazlian looked impressive when bagging brace of wins last term, and better than result when fourth in Fred Winter. Well held in couple of handicaps in the mud this time around, but far too soon to write off.

Minella Definitely was an Irish point winner who made winning start over hurdles at Kempton in November and landed 11-runner novice event at Wincanton last month, though given stiff-looking mark here on handicap bow.

Changing The Guard has shown form more in-keeping with his Flat ability in handicap hurdles around 2m this season, winning 3 times in total. Suspicion handicapper has him about right now, however.

First Avenue was bang in contention when coming down at last in C&D handicap in November. Shaped as if still in good form when sixth at Ascot 6 weeks later, though will remain vulnerable to less-exposed sorts.

Pine Creek had some useful form to his name at up to 1¾m on Flat in France for Andre Fabre and progressive over hurdles this year, scoring in novices at Leicester and Doncaster. Open to more improvement.

First In The Queue returned to very best when runner-up in 2m Ascot handicap in November. Unsuited by conditions last 2 hurdle starts (third in jumpers' bumper at Kempton in between), but even so, others preferred.

Stormy Weather was a dual hurdles winner last season who made winning chasing debut at Wetherby (2m) in November. Has regressed over fences, but new headgear combination and return to timber may re-kindle his spark.

Tominator was a useful stayer on Flat who is progressing over hurdles, taking 17f Bangor novice in October and back on scoreboard in similar event over C&D last month. Type to do well now handicapping in this sphere.

Paintball returned from breathing op with career best to land this event 12 months ago. Hasn't come close to matching that in 5 starts since, but return to this venue may bring about a return to form.

Whitby Jack landed 2m Kempton handicap in January. Never looked like justifying support at Ascot next time, but back on track when runner up to Shammick Boy at Chepstow a fortnight ago, so folly to dismiss.

Solaras Exhibition was in form of his life in first half of last year, following up victories over hurdles at Sedgefield and Ffos Las with success on Flat at Chester. Should be better for recent pipe-opener on AW. 

Cayman Islands showed marked improvement when opening hurdling account at Musselburgh (2m) in January. Stamina stretched when runner-up over 2½m at that venue next time and unseated early at Towcester since.

Sporting Boy quickly climbed handicap ranks last year, winning 4 times, and there was enough in his sixth-place finish at Wetherby last week to suggest he'll remain competitive from this sort of mark.

Rockawango won listed hurdle at Auteuil in September and matched that form when second in 2m Ayr handicap on third start for this yard last month, though it's likely he'll find a few better treated here.

Barizan was a front-running Grade 1-winning juvenile hurdler in 2010. Attitude took turn for worse after, but took advantage of drop in weights to beat Home Run in 17f Taunton handicap last time.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Tominator
2. Mr Mole
3. Kazlian

Timeform Verdict: Mr Mole got the better of subsequent Grade 1 winner Melodic Rendezvous earlier this term, and merits respect, while it would be no surprise to see Kazlian bounce back to form here, but it's the useful Flat performer Tominator who gets the vote, racing from a lenient-looking initial hurdles mark.

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Saturday, October 20, 2012

Timeform's Global Outlook: October 20/21

"You’d be forgiven for not knowing that there is a whole book of championship-level races staged at Ascot on Saturday as part of the second British Champions Day, the limelight so far hogged by the masterful Frankel."

The eyes of the racing world will be on Berkshire this weekend, to crown champions and to wish a fond farewell...

You'd be forgiven for not knowing that there is a whole book of championship-level races staged at Ascot on Saturday as part of the second British Champions Day, the limelight so far hogged (not for the first time) by the masterful Frankel. There is, of course, good reason for him commanding so many column inches ahead of what's likely to be his final race in the Champion Stakes: he is of course Timeform's highest-rated Flat performer of all, and this week Tony McFadden has put together five of Frankel's most memorable performances, while our Chief Correspondent (and cheerleader-in-chief) Jamie Lynch has offered his own eulogy on Frankel ahead of his clash with French champion Cirrus des Aigles at Ascot.

As we've already said, there are four other top-quality races lined up at Ascot on Champions Day: the Long Distance Cup, the Sprint Stakes, the Fillies' & Mares'Stakes and the QEII (milers' championship). Matt Garder has, rather ambitiously, tried to go through the card, rounding off with perhaps the most difficult race of all, a 29-runner apprentice handicap. All the best with that, Matthew.

Most other racing jurisdictions are happy to let the Brits have our day in the sun on Saturday, the overall Global outlook duly quite quiet. Perhaps predictably, the exception is the Australians, with the Caulfield Cup, a major trial for the Melbourne Cup, taking place on Saturday. Gary Crispe has previewed the feature race, while Dominic Beirne has had a look at the wider card, which contains five other Group races and a couple of listed events. Timeform are providing a FREE card at Caulfield tomorrow, complete with ratings and comments, as well as a runner-by-runner guide to the big one.

Just because the racing elsewhere is quiet doesn't mean it's uninteresting, as is proved in the US and Italy. There is Graded Stateside action at Keeneland, Belmont and Charles Town, with Chris Williams looking at all the relevant contests. Chris has also previewed the Gran Premio del Jockey Club, a Group 1 over 12 furlongs at San Siro on Sunday, which contains plenty of interest from Germany as well as recent Godolphin Stakes winner Retrieve.

You can listen to Timeform Radio's Global Podcast here, to get even more of a lowdown on this weekend's worldwide racing.

Timeform's Horses To Follow for the 2012/3 NH season is out now! Get an interview with Donald McCain and ante-post advice as well as 65 horses to follow from Britain and Ireland. Get your copy now!

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