Follow The Money: Sunday movers at the Curragh

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 25 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Smart movers look to Ireland on a quiet Sunday

"There has been a move for Twirl, backed from [3.3] in to [2.54], in the 16:00."

Today's Follow the Money comes from the Curragh.

At 14:30, in the first two-year-old maiden of the season, Forester has been drifting all morning from [2.48] out to [3.3]. A number of these catch the eye on breeding and, as always in unraced juvenile contests, the market is normally the best guide. Jim Bolger's Dawn Approach, who represents the first crop of 2008 Derby hero New Approach, has attracted some support and it is the Adian O'Brien runner who is very weak in the market. The trainer has not won this race since 2004 and the market suggests he'll have to wait at least another year as punters are happy to oppose him at short prices.

There has been a move for Twirl, backed from [3.3] in to [2.54], in the 16:00. Aidan O'Brien's filly is a sister to the stables four time Group 1 winner Misty For Me and she looked one to follow this season after winning impressively at Leopardstown towards the end of last season. She looks certain to handle the step up to a mile and, with three-year-olds having won six of the last ten runnings of this Group 3 contest, punters expect that record to continue today.

Our final selection comes in the 17:00 where Sikara has been well supported from [9.2] in to [6.0]. Tommy Stack's lightly-raced filly was quite progressive last season, winning a filly's handicap at Cork by over six lengths. She has gone up 11lb for that win, but today's jockey does take off 7lb. The trainer has a good record in this race and with today's soft going also in her favour she looks capable of going close today.

Recommended Bets
Lay Forester @ [3.3] Curragh 14:30
Back Twirl @ [2.54] Curragh 16:00
Back Sikara @ [6.0] Curragh 17:00

Welcome to the Betfair Movers line for March 24th. Today's movers come from the meetings at Newbury and Lingfield....

All today's movers run at Newbury....

Today's Follow The Money comes from Wolverhampton and Chepstow....

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Nick Shiambouros' Patented 80/20 Bet: Curragh, 15:45

80/20 / Nick Shiambouros / 17 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Nick heads across the Irish Sea to follow the fortunes of today's well-bred 80/20...

Today's 80/20 is Dancing Rain in the 15:45 at the Curragh. This beautifully bred filly beat Wonder Of Wonders in in the English Oaks at Epsom last month. She made all the running and held off the determined challenge of the runner-up to score decisively. I think she can take another step forward today and should go very close at a fair price in this important race. At present she is trading at [5.5] on the exchange

Nick's backing today's 80/20 to make another breakthrough at a decent price......

How friendly will today's selection be to Nick's faithful followers?...

Improvement expected from Nick's evening selection at Epsom...

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Timeform Daily: The Irish Oaks, Sunday, the Curragh 15:45

Race of the Day / Timeform / 16 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Epsom Oaks winner Dancing Rain is going to find it hard to complete the double

"Tactics over-influenced the result in the Epsom version, with Dancing Rain gifted the softest of leads, and surely only a repeat scenario could enable her to follow up..."

Can Dancing Rain uphold Epsom Oaks form with the likes of Wonder of Wonders and Blue Bunting? Timeform run the rule over the field for the Irish Oaks at the Curragh...

Amazing Beauty has progressed since her small-field maiden win at Dundalk in April, but beaten 4¾ lengths into third by Banimpire in the Noblesse at Cork latest, suggesting listed/Group 3 races are more her level.

Banimpire is a tough filly whose Ribblesdale win at Royal Ascot was her fifth success from 6 starts in little over 2 months. Respected but her form is short of the standard of an average Irish Oaks winner.

Blue Bunting improved markedly on juvenile efforts when landing 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on reappearance. Left with more to do than the first 2 when fourth in the Oaks last time and will be a bigger threat here.

Dancing Rain has come a long way in a short space of time, but received an enterprising ride when winning the Oaks at 20/1 and the suspicion is she'll struggle to confirm that form with the pair that reoppose.

Gemstone ran a cracker when splitting Lolly For Dolly and Banimpire in a Group 3 at the Curragh on reappearance but hasn't progressed, only fifth behind the latter at Cork last time. Likely front runner.

Hurricane Havoc was only seventh in the Guineas Trials at Leopardstown in the spring. Did manage to win a 4-runner minor event at Navan next time but it was set up for her and she has plenty to find on balance.

Laughing Lashes Signs of temperament when last but one in the Guineas at Newmarket, but did nothing wrong when staying-on third (Banimpire fifth) in the Irish equivalent here next time. Has stamina to prove.

Rumh made all to win listed event at Newbury in June by 6 lengths, but had her bubble burst behind Banimpire in the Ribblesdale last time, finishing a tired sixth. Plenty to prove, including stamina.

Wonder of Wonders is a big, long-striding filly, the sort this test could be ideal for. Couldn't peg back all-the-way winner Dancing Rain in the Oaks last time but has strong claims of turning that form around.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Wonder of Wonders
2. Blue Bunting
3. Banimpire

Timeform's View: Tactics over-influenced the result in the Epsom version, with Dancing Rain gifted the softest of leads, and surely only a repeat scenario could enable her to follow up. The second and fourth that day, Wonder of Wonders and Blue Bunting, look far likelier winners, with marginal preference for the former, while the durable Banimpire can reach a place.

Download a Free Race Card every day in July at timeform.com. Click HERE to register & get your free card for Irish Oaks day at the Curragh this afternoon.

Timeform go through the field for this listed race for fillies and mares......

Timeform run the rule over this six-furlong listed race for two-year-olds......

There are some useful performers on show in this minor event over a mile......

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Irish Oaks Betting: Dancing Rain to complete Epsom & Curragh double?

Tipping / Timeform / 13 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Dancing Rain (red cap) may struggle to confirm form with those who finished behind her in the Epsom Oaks

"Normally, the Epsom Oaks is a good indicator of who is the best middle-distance three-year-old filly of their generation, but the way the race was run gives half of the field excuses."

This Sunday sees William Haggas' Dancing Rain bid to become the third British filly in as many years to do the Oaks double. Timeform's Paul Robson assesses what chance she has...

Dancing Rain has come a long way in a short time, her victory at Epsom coming just six weeks after winning a Newbury maiden on her reappearance, and although she improved to finish second in a listed race at the Berkshire track next time, her Oaks win still came as something of a surprise to most, returning a Betfair SP of [29.0].

Dancing Rain's classic success was arguably down to the tactics deployed by Johnny Murtagh, who was allowed to go off in front unchallenged. Murtagh stacked the runners up just before Tattenham Corner and kicked off the final bend, turning a middle-distance classic into a sprint. Understandably, not many runners could get into the race, and Dancing Rain bravely fought off the challenge of Aidan O'Brien's Wonder of Wonders, scoring by three quarters of a length.

The strong suspicion is that many of those Dancing Rain beat at Epsom will improve past her, hence the fact she can be backed at [5.3] to complete the Oaks double while the runner-up form Epsom is a short as [2.16].

Like many of those that ran at Epsom, Wonder of Wonders was disadvantaged by the steady gallop, even though she was better placed than many racing in second. She was the only filly to put up a strong challenge to Dancing Rain, going as short as [1.11] in-running on Betfair, but the front-runner had kept just enough in reserve. Wonder of Wonders is a big, rangy filly, who will probably be better suited by the more galloping track at the Curragh, and the chances are that there's still a big chunk of improvement in her. She has an obvious chance of giving O'Brien his fourth Irish Oaks in six years, but her price fully reflects that.

Another leading Ballydoyle contender is Irish 1000 Guineas and Pretty Polly winner Misty For Me, who is available at [8.0]. A very impressive display when defeating multiple Group 1 winner Midday at the Curragh by six lengths for her latest success makes her the Timeform top rated, but that that was over a mile and quarter, when dictating a steady gallop under a shrewd Seamie Heffernan ride before unleashing a devastating turn of foot to quicken clear, and there are doubts about her at Sunday's trip, a mile and a half seeming to stretch her stamina when fifth in the Oaks at Epsom.

Godolphin's Blue Bunting ([6.0]) has also tasted 1000 Guineas success, beating Together by three quarters of a length at Newmarket, but unlike Misty For Me she is very much bred to be an Oaks filly (by Dynaformer and from a staying family). Blue Bunting came with a late surge as her stamina kicked in at HQ, one of the first off the bridle but responding all the time, and her run in the Oaks can easily be excused, poorly positioned in mid-field and having little chance to land a blow (finished fourth). Godolphin have never won the Irish Oaks, but that record could well be broken as this race is likely to suit her a lot more than Epsom and she's potentially even better than she showed at Newmarket.

Ribblesdale winner Banimpire ([12.0]) proved her stamina at Royal Ascot last time, knuckling down to see off Field of Dreams by a short head. A tough and consistent filly who has won five of her last six starts, Banimpire is sure to give her running but may be vulnerable to the improvers.

Jessie Harrington's Laughing Lashes overcame a disappointing run on the Rowley Mile in the 1000 Guineas to stay on from rear into third in the Irish equivalent, but her pedigree suggests that the four furlong step up in trip will be too much.

Normally, the Epsom Oaks is a good indicator of who is the best middle-distance three-year-old filly of their generation, but the way the race was run gives half of the field excuses. It would be disappointing if Wonder of Wonders wasn't able to improve, but her price is too short. On the other hand, 1000 Guineas winner Blue Bunting can be excused her Epsom run and, at a current price of [6.0], looks the value pick.

Recommendation

Back Blue Bunting @ [6.0] in the Irish Oaks at the Curragh on Sunday

Download a Free Race Card every day in July at timeform.com. Click HERE to register or see the menu.

St Nicholas Abbey heads the market for the Betfair sponsored King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on July 23, but the value lies elsewhere. Timeform's Mark Powell-Bevan explains why he'll be betting against the favourite......

Three selections for today's meetings at Downpatrick and Killarney....

There are some useful performers on show in this minor event over a mile......

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Timeform Daily: The Irish Derby, Sunday 15:50, the Curragh

Race of the Day / Timeform / 25 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Carlton House gain compensation for his Epsom defeat?

"Carlton House may have finished behind Treasure Beach at Epsom but he was poorly placed in relation to that rival and is a confident selection to reverse those placings."

Epsom Derby second and third Treasure Beach and Carlton House are set to renew rivalry at the Curragh on Sunday, but who will come out on top?...

Carlton House is an exciting prospect who was too strong for Seville in the Dante before finishing third in Epsom Derby, showing potent turn of foot 3f out but unable to sustain that effort. Compensation awaits.

Dunboyne Express won twice at 2 yrs, including runaway victory in Group 3 here only try on ground softer than good. Overall level of form some way off required standard though, and this trip is an unknown.

Memphis Tennessee won AW maiden in 2010 and built on that good impression in no uncertain terms this year, fourth in Derby last time under well-judged ride. Hard to see him reversing placings with Carlton House.

Native Khan landed Craven Stakes before creditable efforts in 2000 Guineas (third to Frankel) and Derby (fifth to Pour Moi). Will probably continue to come up short at highest level but could get placed.

Notable Graduate landed odds in maiden at Tipperary and minor event at Gowran in April/May. Unsuited by test of speed when only second last time and could go well at a price. Attitude looks a major asset.

Roderic O'Connor usually goes from the front and bounced back to his 2-y-o form when winning the Irish 2000 Guineas under an astute ride, but didn't see out 10.5f in France last time and now races over even further.

Seville was fast-tracked to top table when runner-up in Racing Post Trophy last backend. Behind Carlton House in Dante and then ran no sort of race at Epsom, but could bounce back on more galloping track.

Treasure Beach took Chester Vase on return (beat Nathaniel) and then fared best of this field in the Epsom Derby, beaten only by a head. Enjoyed a tactical advantage over the third that day, however.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Carlton House
2. Seville
3. Notable Graduate

Timeform's View: Carlton House may have finished behind Treasure Beach at Epsom but he was poorly placed in relation to that rival and is a confident selection to reverse those placings. Aidan O'Brien's best chance could be Seville, who clearly wasn't himself at Epsom but chased home Carlton House earlier in the campaign, while at bigger odds Notable Graduate should give a good account if it becomes a slog.

Click here to get a FREE TIMEFORM RACECARD for Irish Derby weekend at the Curragh.

Betfair are offering you cashback if Carlton House is the only leg of your multiple to let you down on Sunday. Click HERE to find out more.

Timeform look at the contenders for one of the highlights of the summer jumps season.......

Timeform run the rule over the Pitmen's Derby......

Timeform go through the runners for the Gosforth Park Cup......

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Timeform Daily: 1000 Guineas, Sunday, Curragh 16:15

Race of the Day / Timeform / 21 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Which filly will win the Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh?

"Together comes here with an excellent second in the British equivalent under her belt and just gets the vote with Ryan Moore in the saddle."

After his Roderic O'Connor won the Irish 2000 Guineas on Saturday, can Aidan O'Brien double up in the fillies version on Sunday?

Ballybacka Lady hasn't always looked the most straightforward but showed no signs of waywardness when winning Group 3 at Leopardstown last time under an enterprising ride. Needs to progress again to feature, however.

Banimpire is a prominently-ridden sort with a good attitude who has already won a listed race and 2 Group 3's around 1¼m this year. That's some of the best form on offer but the drop back to 1m leaves her vulnerable.

Chrysanthemum was a costly purchase with a useful pedigree and won 2 from 2 as a juvenile, namely a listed race over 1m and a Group 3 race at 7f, both at the Curragh. She needs to progress again but that's a possibility.

Claiomh Solais is a well-bred filly who got off the mark at fourth attempt in a 1m maiden at Naas earlier this month. That form is way off the required standard here, though, and Kevin Manning prefers Banimpire.

Emiyna looks an exciting prospect, winning a 7f maiden at Dundalk in April and doubling tally in Group 3 at 7f here, beating a consistent older filly with
more in hand than the bare margin. Leading player.

Handassa was most impressive when making a winning debut in maiden here last year. Didn't build on that at first attempt when behind Ballybacka Lady and Sapphire Pendant on return, and already blinkered.

History Note is from good family and has made a most favourable impression so far, winning 7f maiden here last backend and a good third in Group 3 at Leopardstown on return, meeting trouble. Will improve further.

Laughing Lashes finished ahead of Misty For Me when off the mark at third attempt in Group 2 at the Curragh, but found that rival progressing past her on final 2-y-o start. Lacklustre return at Newmarket, too.

Look At Me created a big impression at 2 yrs, winning a Fairyhouse maiden before improving markedly when second in Group 3 at Newmarket. Easy to back and ran poorly behind Emiyna on reappearance, however.

Majestic Dubawi progressed in leaps and bounds at 2 yrs, winning maiden at Bath and Group 3 at Ayr, showing good speed both times. Last in listed handicap on reappearance and stamina for 1m not assured.

Misty For Me enjoyed a most productive 2-y-o campaign, winning Group 1 events at the Curragh and Longchamp. Lacks scope physically, however, and dropped away tamely in 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on reappearance.

Rose Bonheur is beginning to deliver on early promise, winning maiden at Tipperary in April and handicap at Naas in May (easily). Will be at least as effective at this longer trip and could go well at a price.

Seeharn won her first 2 starts at the Curragh, namely maiden and listed race, both over 6f. Limitations exposed since (behind Emiyna last time) and she's no banker to stay 1m, on breeding or running style.

Together was a 7f Group 3 winner in busy 2-y-o campaign who ran a cracker when second to Blue Bunting in 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, just collared late on. Not always looked straightforward but sets the standard.

Wild Wind has only 1 win to her name but has done well to be placed all 3 starts this season, notably when third in French 1000 Guineas at Longchamp. Could easily get placed again, but looks an unlikely winner.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Together
2. Emiyna
3. History Note

Timeform's View: Emiyna looks an exciting prospect and will be suited by this step up to 1m so deserves to be high on the shortlist, but Together comes here with an excellent second in the British equivalent under her belt and just gets the vote with Ryan Moore in the saddle. History Note rates as a sure-fire improver and is a good second string for the Oxx yard.

This handicap over a mile for three-year-olds traditionally proves a very good race......

Timeform run the rule over this fillies' handicap......

Timeform go through the runners for this tricky big-field handicap......

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