Home and Away: Turkish delight for Gala in Germany

Bet 1: Doncaster Rovers (HOME) @ 1.91
Bet 2: Galatasaray (AWAY) @ 5.5

Jonno Turner looks at action across the continent as he looks to pick out two winners from this evening's footballing calendar.

We're off to South Yorkshire for our first pick of the day - as League One leaders Doncaster Rovers aim to put more space between themselves and second placed local rivals Sheffield United by taking another three points at the Keepmoat Stadium against Carlisle United this evening.

The home side go into this one having won three of their last four games, and that will give them much confidence ahead of this clash, as they look to consolidate their place at the summit of the division.

Brian Flynn's side secured a cracking results at Bournemouth on Saturday - winning 2-1 - and that will have boosted confidence in the Rovers camp ahead of this tie.

Just one loss from seven on their own patch is exactly the kind of form that Flynn will be looking for his side to maintain as they enter the last nine games of the campaign eyeing promotion back to the second tier.

And the home boss will have been delighted that captain Rob Jones came through that game on the south coast unscathed - as he is expected to line up in the heart of defence once again for the hosts.

Visitors Carlisle travel south in mixed form - and are without a win in four games on their travels, a run which has seen them languishing 16th in the table.

With nine points grace between the Cumbrians and the relegation zone, it would take a drop in form of epic proportions for Greg Abbott's side to be dragged into the mire at this relatively late stage of the season - but they will be desperate to improve upon that disappointing placing nonetheless.

The away side have managed just one clean sheet in the league since November 2011, and that suggests that they are likely to gift their hosts a few chances this evening - and a Doncaster side which has hit 16 goals in 10 at the Keepmoat Stadium will be looking to take advantage of that.

Abbott's side are without Lee Miller, who sits out the last of his three game suspension, and new signing Mathieu Manset may not be eligible due to delays with his international clearance - which could see the visitors turn to teenage striker Mark Beck up top once again.

Bet 1: Doncaster Rovers (HOME) @ 1.91

Turning our attentions to slightly more glamorous climes now - and it's time for the UEFA Champions League last 16 second leg tie between Schalke and Galatasaray, with a 1-1 stalemate in the first fixture leaving this tie finely balanced.

The Germans will be in confident mood ahead of this clash, and many are backing them to secure their place in the next round of this competition at 1.72 - but I don't think it's as cut and dried as that.

Schalke are without key striker Klaus Jan-Huntelaar, who partially ruptured a knee ligament on Saturday, and the top scorer will be a big miss to the hosts, along with influential midfieler Jermaine Jones.

Home boss Jens Keller will be desperate for his side to put in a positive performance here, but five without a win from their last eight at the Veltins-Arena suggests that they are most definitely beatable, and just one clean sheet from 11 on their own patch points to the Turks having their fair share of chances this evening.

Gala travel to Gelsenkirchen in good form themselves, and just one loss from their last 12 games on the road will have them high in confidence.

The visitors sit top of the Super Lig, and their last outing on Friday has given them an extra day to recover for this all important clash - in which they know they must score at least one.

Terim's side were unlucky to draw the first tie between these sides, with Hamit Altintop smashing a shot against the bar, and with the likes of Burak Yilmaz, Didier Drogba and Wesley Sneijder amongst their ranks, they are always likely to nick a goal.

The Turks have won their last two Champions League outings away from home, and I think they are cracking odds here - at 5.5, as a goal for the visitors would throw this tie wide open.

Bet 2: Galatasaray (AWAY) @ 5.5

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Turkish Racing Festival: British raiders look to land the spoils

Master of Hounds has joined William Haggas after a fruitful campaign in Dubai over the winter, a win in the Group 1 Jebel Hatta being the highlight...

Entries for the International Racing Festival, taking place at Veliefendi on September 1 and 2, have been made, featuring a number of British raiders...

Six races during the Turkish Racing Festival, a quintet of Group 2 events and one Group 1, look to be of most interest at this stage, with British runners entered in all but two of them.

The Group 2 Anatolia Trophy, staged over ten furlongs and won last year by the Mark Johnston-trained Dordogne, has attracted the attention of a pair of smart performers this year in Master of Hounds and Zazou. The former has joined William Haggas after a fruitful campaign in Dubai over the winter, a win in the Group 1 Jebel Hatta being the highlight, and he looks set to continue his globetrotting career by participating here.

Zazou finished fifth in the Dubai World Cup, three places ahead of Master of Hounds, and last month achieved third place at Munich behind Pastorius, the winner producing the second best performance by a three-year-old seen this year.

Other entries to catch the eye in this contest are the Marco Botti-trained pair, Kingsdesire and Marcret, and the Godolphin trio Hunter's Light, Retrieve and Sandagiyr.

Sandagiyr also holds an entry in the Group 2 Topkapi Trophy, where he could be joined by Godolphin teammates Dysphonia and French Navy. Mark Johnston could well hold a strong hand in this event, potentially being represented by Bannock, Fulbright and Van Ellis, whilst the entry of Archbishop, who dead-heated with Trumpet Major in a Group 3 at Glorious Goodwood, is also of note.

The aforementioned Dysphonia, a listed winner in Australia who hasn't brought her "A-Game" on her two most recent starts, could alternatively compete in the Group 2 Istanbul Trophy. She may face the likes of Laugh Out Loud, who is best judged on her win in the Group 2 Prix de Sandringham on her penultimate start, and Beatrice Aurore, who had been holding her form well this year prior to getting loose before that start at Ascot last time. Survey, a Group winner in her native Germany, is also worth a second look despite being well below form in the Oak Tree Stakes at Goodwood last time, as she probably did too much too soon there.

The Group 2 Bosphorus Cup, a race dominated by the British last year with Indian Days winning, Campanologist second, Afsare fourth and Halicarnassus fifth, could well play out in similar fashion this time around, with the Brits responsible for seven of the 12 entries. Headlining the act is Dubai Prince, who recently put up a career-best when winning the Group 3 Strensall Stakes at York, finally living up to the promise that he had shown earlier in his career in the process.

Retrieve also holds an entry in this event, as do Calvado Blues and Lost In The Moment. Looking to gatecrash the Godolphin party is Sense of Purpose, from the Dermot Weld yard, and Inspector, who is trained in Turkey and has run in this race for the last four years, winning in 2008 before finishing sixth, eighth and eighth.

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The Joker's Bet of the Day: Avoiding a Turkish bath

The Joker's bet of the day / The Joker / 01 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

The Joker's Bet of the Day: Back Istanbul BB @ [1.8] to beat Karabukspor

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way...

Brescia were Stabia-proof and Stabia were Brescia proof. A goalless draw wasn't what we were looking. Let's hope the Joker is stab-proof.

And let's hope this is bullet-proof. Istanbul BB have won seven of their last 11 home matches against teams from the Super Lig's bottom six. This evening's lowly visitors are Karabukspor, who have lost 8/9 away matches against teams in the league's top half.

Recommended Bet: Back Istanbul BB @ [1.8] to beat Karabukspor

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way......

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way......

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way......

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Turkish Grand Prix: F1 betting for the uninitiated

Formula One / Jack Houghton / 05 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jack reckons he's found the value for Istanbul race

"Vettel should be around a [3.1] shot to win qualifying for Turkey. Currently available at the much shorter [1.68], he looks like a driver to oppose."

Jack Houghton might not be the world's leading authority on F1 but when it comes to writing about betting we reckon he's at the front of the grid. Here, our man explains how you can proft from Sunday's race in Turkey.

I'll be honest. I know very little about F1.

Sure, I watch most races. Actually, when I say "watch", I mean I have them on in the background. But my mind is usually elsewhere. F1 plays a similar role in my life to the Shipping Forecast. The rhythmic rise-and-fall is soothing and I like the exotic sounding names. When needed, it helps me drop-off. But I haven't the first clue what it's all about and can't imagine there's anyone out there who really knows any different.

It was a little concerning then when I remembered that, in a moment of overconfidence, I'd persuaded the editors at betting.betfair to let me conduct a statistical review of F1 in time for the Turkish Grand Prix. But I shouldn't have worried, because, when you get stuck into the data, it's actually quite fascinating.

On the rare occasions I have read previews of Grand Prix, or listened to commentators predicting the likely result, there seems to be a complex array of factors they draw upon, including whether or not a certain car, car setup, or driver is suited to a particular track. I'd often wondered whether the complexity was necessary, or whether, as with other sports I have looked at, there were more straightforward ways to determine value bets.

I set out to focus on three markets - Overall Qualifying, Fastest Lap and Winner - aiming to find the most reliable indicators of which drivers would be most likely to pick up each honour.

Overall Qualifying

It would make sense that to predict the driver to win pole, you should simply look at who has won it previously. After all, if a driver and team have been successful in a very particular context before, they are surely more likely to be able to be so again.

That's not what the data says. In fact, looking back over the last 200 Grand Prix, drivers only win back-to-back poles around 30 per cent of the time. That figure did creep up in 2010, but otherwise has remained fairly constant in every other year analysed, and in the block of years since 2006, when the current system for qualifying was adopted.

Doing some more complicated analysis, it makes little difference how many previous poles a driver has won as to whether they will repeat the feat.

According to the data I have looked at then, Vettel should be around a [3.1] shot to win qualifying for Turkey. Currently available at the much shorter [1.68], he looks like a driver to oppose.

When trying to predict who will be on pole, it turns out, you're slightly better off looking at various combinations of who has won recent Grand Prix. On this basis, I would expect Hamilton, the winner in China, to be much shorter than the currently available [7.4].

Winner

As an only partially engaged watcher of F1, I'd been led to believe that the driver on pole enjoyed a significant advantage over other drivers. And they do - going on to win just under half of Grand Prix. This figure remains constant in nearly every year, and in different blocks of years. It seems that no matter how often they tinker with the rules, the driver on pole still wins just slightly under 50 per cent of races.

It's slightly surprising then that Vettel is as short as [2.36] to win in Turkey when it is far from guaranteed that he will win pole. And as the winner of the previous Grand Prix, Hamilton should be much shorter than [4.6] to win again.

Fastest Lap

The market on who will set the fastest lap time in Turkey is naturally light at this stage. It's worth noting though that the winner of Overall Qualification only stands a 26 per cent chance [3.84] of going on to drive the fastest lap in the race. And the eventual winner in Turkey is only 35 per cent likely [2.8] to have driven the fastest lap on route to victory.

When watching on Sunday this could open up some in-play opportunities - with the fastest lap much more likely coming from a driver further back in the race.

Recommended Bets

LAY Vettel in Overall Qualification market at [1.68].
BACK Hamilton in Overall Qualification market at [7.4].
LAY Vettel in Winner market at [2.36].
BACK Hamilton in Winner market at [4.6].

Never mind the battle at the top of the market, a shrewd, forward-thinking team are starting to quietly make an impact on the podium. Bettors take note, says Ralph Ellis....

World Champion is denied hat-trick of wins by stunning late effort from British driver. Meanwhile, Webber overtakes Button to land unlikely podium......

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Turkish Grand Prix: Lotus Renault - F1's new dark horses?

Formula One / Ralph Ellis / 03 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Vitaly Petrov is leading the charge for Lotus Renault

"Petrov and Heidfeld are anywhere between [95.0] and [180.00] to win in Turkey... "

Never mind the battle at the top of the market, a shrewd, forward-thinking team are starting to quietly make an impact on the podium. Bettors take note, says Ralph Ellis.

Sport in the 21st century is dominated by money. We know this. It is why Real Madrid and Barcelona dominate La Liga, and why Chelsea and Manchester United battle it out every year for the Barclays Premier League.

In Formula One, it's why McLaren, Red Bull and Ferrari slug it out every week for the front of the grid. The richest buy the best, and stay ahead of the field that way.

But just occasionally somebody comes along with a bit of brilliance that puts a dent in the dominance of the big boys. Jenson Button won his Drivers' World Championship because of the ingenuity of Ross Brawn, who dreamed up the idea of the double diffuser, winning half a dozen races before anybody else caught up.

You just wonder if there's a similar brain working behind the scenes at Lotus Renault this year. In the opening battles between Sebastian Vettel and Lewis Hamilton it's gone pretty much unnoticed that they managed a podium finish in two of the first three races. Whatever is going on, it's clearly the car and not the driver because Nick Heidfeld and Vitaly Petrov have shared those two bits of Grand Prix glory.

They rather spoiled the good start by messing up qualifying in China, where some technical problems failed to get Petrov into Q3. But the only Russian in F1 still finished ninth, and as the Formula One circus sets up its big top in Istanbul this week there are encouraging noises coming from their factory to suggest the improvement could go on.

"We have a good upgrade package coming for Turkey," promises team principal Eric Boullier, the man masterminding whatever gadgets and gizmos are being dreamed up. "The car has shown it has good straight line speed. It is also kind on its tyres which will be important in Istanbul, as it was in the warmer weather of the first couple of races."

There's a new front wing coming, various design tweaks inspired by work in the wind tunnel, and a few other technical bits that frankly went above my head. But it's still enough of a hint that Lotus can remain the dark horse (as opposed to Ferrari's prancing horse).

It's worth knowing, because the dominance of the wealthiest teams at the front of the grid has limited betting opportunities in the first few races. Vettel is already [2.4] favourite for the Turkish Grand Prix, a price that's too short to back but not really short enough to lay either. So unless you hang your hat on Hamilton, who is [4.5], at a course where McLaren scored a 1-2 last season there isn't much value to be found in the early market.

Petrov and his sidekick Heidfeld, in contrast, are anywhere between [95.0] and [180.00] to win which suggests that when the weekend comes you'll get [30.0] or maybe more for either of them to get on the podium again. Alongside your serious stake to sort out the winner, it's a bet that's going to be well worth a little flutter, and at the least could turn a profit if you lay it in running.

Five things you might not know about Vitaly Petrov

1. Born September 1984 in the Russian town of Vyborg, close to the border with Finland, his mother was a schoolteacher.

2. He was five when his dad, who owned land, bought him a beat-up Volkswagon Golf and started teaching him to drive. He started racing in Lada events because there are no go-karts in Russia

3. He was reprimanded for being overweight during his first Formula One season with Renault

4. He's a big fan of Spanish football, and describes himself as the only person in the world who supports both Barcelona and Real Madrid

5. He collects playing cards from around the world

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The World Champion starts at the front of the grid but could a late charge from a British driver set up a surprise victory? James Frankland selects the bets ahead of Sunday's Chinese Grand Prix....

He may have won the first two races of the season, but Sebastien Vettel knows that if his team don't iron out their manufacturing issues, there could be trouble ahead. Ralph Ellis reports....

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