The Cheltenham Festival 
/ Jack Houghton / 14 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Jack believes Long Run is a lay in the Gold Cup place market
"Despite the supposedly ultra-competitive on-course ring at Prestbury Park, year on year the Betfair SP outperforms the industry SP."
Even if you can't catch the action live at Cheltenham 2011, there's no need to feel beleaguered, as Jack Houghton explains in part two of his festival betting guide for the workers.
Time Saving Tip Two: Trust Cheltenham Form
Much is made of the unique test Cheltenham sets horses. Often on the turn, horses require balance, and yet those turns do not slow the relentless pace. The undulations find out the unfit, but not to the extent that only the stamina-laden can win. Then there are the fences: testing but not cruel. This special blend, it is argued, means that, at the Festival, Cheltenham form should be trusted above all else.
I've never been able to determine whether it really is course idiosyncrasy - or simply that Cheltenham largely stages top-class racing, meaning that horses who have performed well there are likely to perform well in the top races offered at the Festival - but Cheltenham form does seem to give a horse an advantage.
Take last year. In 24 races (discounting the Bumper and X-Country), 16 of the winners had previously won, or been placed at, Cheltenham. Not hugely impressive, perhaps, but when you take out those races where the winner hadn't had the opportunity to run at Cheltenham, the strike rate improves to 16 out of 19. This pattern is broadly repeated in every Festival in the last decade. In other words, if a horse has previously tried Cheltenham and failed, they're unlikely to rectify things at the Festival.
Getting rid of those horses who have demonstrated they don't perform at the Festival, then, and our Supreme Novices' short-list is left with Cue Card, Spirit Son, Zaidpour and Sam Winner. The last three of these are all available at generous prices.
Time Saving Tip Three: Trust Betfair SP
Despite the supposedly ultra-competitive on-course ring at Prestbury Park, year on year the Betfair SP outperforms the industry SP. Even a cursory glance at past results demonstrates this beyond any doubt. Sure, the odd result might go against you, but in the long-run you will be significantly better off as a backer on Betfair.
A trickier decision is whether to take prices on the machine in the morning, or trust the Betfair SP. Clearly this will depend on a number of factors - chief among them your ability to judge which way the market will move and how comfortable you are with an uncertain potential reward - but, looking at my own Festival betting in the last three years, it's clear that Betfair SP would have been a better option for me, returning a profit six per cent higher than I managed when taking prices in the morning.
Maybe I'm just a spectacularly poor judge of the market, but if you're pressed for time, are you confident that you could do any better?
Time Saving Tip Four: Place More Bets
Against all good sense, less regular punters tend to dramatically increase their stakes during Cheltenham. Add to this scenario the ultra-competitive racing and a propensity to pin all hopes on one selection in a race and it's no surprise some punters have a torrid time. By spreading your risk, you might reduce your chance of a big win, but you also reduce your chance of a series of crippling defeats. And, particularly relevant for the evening armchair punter, you know that, in most races, you will have something to shout for in the closing stages of most races.
This strategy might include laying horses in the place market who fail our first two tests above - like Long Run in the Gold Cup.
Time Saving Tip Five: Follow These Selections
Perhaps this still all sounds too much like hard work. If it is, here are my big-race suggestions for the week ahead. I've put guide prices in, but would recommend sticking with Betfair SP:
Champion Hurdle: Back Khyber Kim [18.5] and Peddlers Cross ([7.4]).
Queen Mother: Back Master Minded [4.2] and Sizing Europe [11.0]. Lay Somersby in the place market [2.76].
World Hurdle: Lay Grands Crus in win [3.85] and place [1.53] markets. Back Celestial Halo [120.0].
Gold Cup: Back Imperial Commander [4.7], Kauto Star [7.4] and Denman [8.0]. Lay Long Run in the place market [2.5].
Graham Cunningham is on RUK duty at Prestbury Park this week and he's back on familiar territory on betting.betfair.com as he sets out to nominate the ones to be with and his four to swerve on Champion Hurdle day....
Timeform take you through the field for what is shaping up to be the most competitive Champion Hurdle in many a year......
Even if you can't swan off to Prestbury Park for the week, or even watch the action on TV, you can still have a profitable Cheltenham. Here's Jack Houghton's tips for the work bound bettor....
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