Championship Betting: Back Wolves for safety and Blackburn for the drop

"If Blackburn are going to ensure their Championship safety tonight’s game against Millwall seems like a real make-or-break point in their season."

Back Blackburn to be relegated at 6.611/2

Callum Davis takes a look at the Championship relegation battle ahead of Blackburn's trip to Millwall tonight - a game that could prove pivotal to Rovers' survival hopes...

Even by the Championship's usual standards of tense competition, this season has been one of the most closely contested for many years. Although the second automatic promotion spot and playoff positions are far from being decided, it is at the bottom of the table where the most enthralling drama looks set to unfold. 

A mere five points separate Barnsley in 23rd from Ipswich in 15th and all the teams in between have the genuine threat of relegation to League One hanging over them as we approach the final two weeks of the season. As predictions go, this one is exceptionally hard to call and the cluster of clubs sitting so closely together above the relegation zone means that the outcome could conceivably come down to goal difference on the last day.

At the risk of pointing out the obvious, momentum in the Championship at this stage of the season has previously proven to be the key to the success or demise of any club hoping to avoid relegation or gain promotion, and this year will be no different. Reading's late acceleration into the automatic promotion spots last season was largely due to their extraordinary run of victories late in the campaign, while Bolton's latest surge up the table into the playoffs is another example of the effect a good run of form can have in such a closely congested table as the Championship. You only have to look at Crystal Palace's abysmal run which has seen them go from challengers for automatic promotion to a team who are clinging on to a place in the playoffs after no wins in six to see how damaging a dip in form can be.

While Bolton have found some stability since relegation and genuine form under Dougie Freedman, the two other relegated sides from last season, Wolves and Bolton, have found themselves facing the prospect of the dreaded double drop. Although Wolves currently reside in the relegation zone in 21st, it is Blackburn's current demise which is looking more critical. Ahead of tonight's visit to The Den, Blackburn sit just two points above the drop on the back of five losses from six away games and on the precipice of losing their Championship status.

Blackburn's season has been punctuated by a series of farcical managerial dismissals which has turned the Rovers from much fancied pre-season promotion candidates to a team in free-fall with a fundamental crisis of leadership.

If Blackburn are going to ensure their Championship safety tonight's game against Millwall seems like a real make-or-break point in their season. With remaining fixtures against Crystal Palace at home and Birmingham away on the last game of the season, Rovers fans will feel uneasy with the prospect of needing to get a result in one of those two games to ensure safety. Millwall are unbeaten in three against Blackburn and have kept clean sheets in each of those games, and despite Millwall's indifferent home record of late I'm unconvinced that Blackburn will be able get the result they need to distance themselves from getting drawn into the relegation places on the final day of the season. 

With that in mind, and given Blackburn's form and tricky run in, 6.611/2 for Blackburn to be relegated looks like the best value in the relegation market. If they come away from south London without a result that price should begin to shorten as Palace and Birmingham beckon.

Although the pressure is firmly on Wolves manager Dean Saunders to rescue the failing Midlanders, I'd be backing them to carry on their recent peak in form (ten points from their last six) to finish the season strongly and avoid relegation by the skin of their teeth, leaving Blackburn fans with the prospect of an uncertain future in the third tier of English football.

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Lay Wolves to be relegated at 2.0421/20
Back Blackburn to be relegated at 6.611/2

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Opta Stats: Blackburn v Manchester United

Opta / Richard / 29 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Wayne Rooney's first-half strike proved enough to see off Fulham

Blackburn might have won at Old Trafford earlier in the campaign but they won't repeat the feat this time round...

Wayne Rooney has scored 17 goals in his last 17 appearances for Manchester United in all competitions.

Rooney has scored in four of his last five Premier League appearances against Rovers.

Manchester United have lost just one of their last 16 Premier League away games (W11 D4 L1). Match odds

The Red Devils have taken 28 points from the last 30 available and won the last six Premier League games in a row. Match odds

Blackburn scored three goals from three shots on target when they beat Manchester United on New Years Eve. Match odds

Dimitar Berbatov has scored eight goals in his last five Premier League appearances against Blackburn and the nine goals he has netted in total against Rovers is the highest versus any opponent for the Bulgarian in the English top flight.

Paul Robinson has saved just 55% of shots on target faced, the worst saves to shots ratio of any 'keeper in the top flight.

Manchester United have kept more clean sheets than any other side in the top division (15) and have netted the most goals (74). Man Utd clean sheet?

Only the top six teams in the league have scored more goals in the Premier League than Blackburn (43), but only Wolves (65) have conceded more than Steve Kean's men (62). Over/ Under 2.5 goals

Rovers have won three and lost just one of their last five Premier League games at Ewood Park, but have won just one of the last seven on home turf against the Red Devils (W1 D4 L2). Match odds

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Premier League: Blackburn edging ever closer to safety

Premier League / Richard / 21 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Junior Hoilett has scored three goals in his last two outings for the club

"Prior to their 2-0 success at Molineux, Blackburn had conceded in each of their 27 league fixtures this season."

Blackburn are beginning to reap the rewards of sticking with Steve Kean and are now within touching distance of saving their Premier League skin...

Rovers' 2-0 win over Sunderland last night saw them record back-to-back league victories for the first time since November 2010. More importantly, the result lifts them a massive six points clear of the bottom three, though Bolton and QPR both have a game in hand. Their dramatic revival now sees them at [6.4] to be relegated come May.

Though winning is all important, successive clean sheets are a similarly noteworthy feat. Prior to their 2-0 success at Molineux, Blackburn had conceded in each of their 27 league fixtures this season. It's now over four hours of football since Blackburn's defence was last breached and that alone should stand them in good stead for the run-in.

Next up for Blackburn is a trip to Bolton, in what would inevitably be a difficult afternoon for all concerned. Though it remains undecided whether the game will go ahead, should the fixture get the green light, Rovers will fancy their chances of a third straight win. Only Wigan have taken fewer points than Bolton at home and Blackburn have lost just one of their last 11 league visits to the Reebok Stadium. Rovers are currently [3.15] to make it three wins on the spin against the Trotters.

As for their final nine games, it's something of a mixed bag for Kean's side. Blackburn are still to entertain Manchester United and Liverpool at Ewood Park, and face both Tottenham and Chelsea in the capital. If those four make grim reading, Rovers also play West Brom, Swansea, Wigan and Norwich before the season's end, so there are no shortage of opportunities to pick up points.

In truth, Blackburn may only need one more win to ensure their place in next season's Premier League. In 2009/10, just 31 points would have proved enough to guarantee survival and the current form of the bottom three makes a similar tally this year highly possible. What's more, their goal difference is at least eight goals better than three of the four sides below them.

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Against All Odds: Kean on goals in Blackburn v Sunderland

Daily Tipping / Paul Robinson / 20 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Blackburn take on Sunderland tonight in an English Premier League clash. The market has under 2.5 goals as odds-on, but six out of Blackburn's last eight at home have gone over. Paul Robinson talks us through his lay of the day.

The Spanish didn't let us down yesterday and delivered the expected goals to get us off to a winning start to the week. Hopefully that can continue and we can have our fourth profitable week in a row.

Blackburn are in 16th place in the table with 25 points from 28 matches. That is a bit of a turnaround for the much-maligned Steve Kean as a couple of months ago they were all but written off and heading to the Championship. He has managed to get his side to pick up some vital victories though, including a 2-0 win at Wolves last time out and also a 3-2 win over QPR in February. At Ewood Park, Rovers have lost just one of their last four and the protests against the manager seem to have quietened down in recent weeks. One thing you can almost guarantee with Blackburn is goals; 40 scored and 60 conceded, their games are averaging 3.57 goals, and six of their last eight at home have gone over 2.5. Striker Yakubu is back in the mix after a recent suspension and star player David 'Junior' Hoilett grabbed a brace in the last match to signify his return to scoring form.

Sunderland have been a completely different outfit since Martin O'Neill took charge earlier in the season. After flirting with the relegation zone under Steve Bruce, O'Neill now has the Black Cats in ninth with 37 points from their 28 fixtures. He has galvanised the squad and they play with much more intensity than before and it has brought about improved results. They have lost just three of their last 12 in the league and they beat Liverpool 1-0 in their last league match. On the road, four of their last eight have gone over 2.5 goals, with three going over 3.5 and two actually going over 4.5. Nicklas Bendtner has found a bit of form in front of goal recently and while their main creative force Stephane Sessegnon is suspended, so is their midfield steel in Lee Cattermole, meaning the defence could be exposed somewhat by an attacking Blackburn side.

I was fully expecting under 2.5 goals to be odds-against, so with it trading at [1.93] I have to make it my lay of the day.

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Lay Under 2.5 goals in Blackburn v Sunderland @ [1.93]

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Opta Stats: Arsenal v Blackburn

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 02 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Bacary Sagna made his first start since returning from injury at Bolton

Arsenal are fighting to end a four-match winless streak against one of the seven Premier League clubs to have beaten them this season...

Blackburn only had four shots on target against Arsenal at Ewood Park, but thanks to two own goals by the Gunners they won 4-3.

Mikel Arteta has scored five goals in the Premier League versus Blackburn, more than against any other opponent.

Paul Robinson has conceded 53 goals against Arsenal in the Premier League; more than any other keeper against any opponent in the competition.

Robin van Persie has scored 10 goals in 12 games in all competitions against Blackburn.

David Dunn has scored five goals in eight Premier League games for Blackburn against Arsenal.

Blackburn have converted the highest percentage of scoring chances away from home this season (22%).

Defeat last time out against Manchester United ended a nine match unbeaten run for the Gunners at the Emirates.

The last 0-0 draw at the Emirates in the Premier League came when Blackburn visited in April 2011.

Starting with that goalless draw, Blackburn have lost just five of their last 15 matches on the road (W2 D8 L5).

Blackburn haven't kept a clean sheet away from home in their last 14 Premier League games since that 0-0 draw at the Emirates.

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Opta Stats: QPR v Blackburn

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 12 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

The stats indicate that it hasn't been a great season so far for Paul Robinson

Neil Warnock's side are odds-on to defeat Blackburn, but these Opta statistics indicate that the match will be far closer than the odds suggest...

QPR have the lowest conversion rate of any team in the Premier League, scoring with just 6% of their attempts.

Blackburn have given away the most fouls (96) of any team in the Premier League this season.

Rangers' 0-6 defeat last time out against Fulham was their heaviest defeat in the Premier League and their third worst in the English top flight (lost 1-8 to Man Utd in March 1969 and 1-7 to Sheffield Wednesday in May 1987).

Blackburn won the last three Premier League meetings with QPR by a 1-0 scoreline and that was also the score when they met in last season's FA Cup.

QPR have failed to score in four of their seven Premier League games and only netted via an own goal in one of the others (against Aston Villa).

Blackburn have won only one and lost eight of their last 12 Premier League away games.

Rovers have only won three of their last 21 Premier League matches overall (W3 D7 L11).

Paul Robinson has the worst saves to shots ratio in the Premier League, keeping out just 50% of accurate attempts at goal.

QPR have won just one of the last 11 meetings with Blackburn (W1 D3 L7) in all competitions.

Blackburn have posted the worst passing accuracy in the opposition half this season, completing just 61% of their passes.

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