The Punter's In-Play Blog: Kaymer still playing catch up

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 13 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Jbe Kruger, sharing the lead in Malaysia after a strong comeback

“Kruger looked to be sauntering along on day one but he lost his way badly and finished the round on -2. The last thing I expected him to do was dust himself down and come out and shoot seven-under par today!”

It's been a good start for Steve in South Carolina and things aren't going too bad in Malaysia. Read the latest on the week's two golf tournaments here...

19:55 - April 13, 2012

For the record, I input a modest and ambitious back on Alvaro Quiros in the Malaysian Open market this morning, at [55.0]. I didn't quite get as much matched as I'd hoped for but he's onside too now.

15:00 - April 13, 2012

Things panned out pretty much as I'd hoped for this morning in Malaysia. Martin Kaymer didn't quite catch first round leader Charl Schwartzel but when the South African bogeyed the 1st hole they were level anyway, and Charl's day didn't get any better after that. He'd played 12 holes when the siren blew and play was suspended due to lightening. By then he was three-over for the day!

Playing with Charl, Louis Oosthuizen is two-under for the second round and he's now on -8, one in front of my man Kaymer, who shot five-under today, and one behind fellow South Africans Hennie Otto and Jbe Kruger, who, so far, is the comeback king of the week. Kruger looked to be sauntering along on day one, on -6 after just 11 holes, but he lost his way badly after that and he finished the round on -2. The last thing I expected him to do after that was dust himself down and come out and shoot seven-under par today!

Those that still need to complete round two will be back in the morning at 7.45 (0.45am UK time) and they could have their patience tested to the max if we get any further suspensions. I'm obviously happy with my position on Kaymer but I'm a little worried that we might not get all four rounds done. I quite fancy Kaymer if we get the full 72 holes in but that's no certainty at all. If we get a suspension tomorrow, a 54-hole tournament would have to be quite likely.

I've had a decent start at the RBC Heritage. Chad Campbell, backed at a very big price before the off, led alongside Vaughan Taylor and Colt Knost on -4 after round one and my big fancy, Jim Furyk, finished the day a shot back. They're off and running today and Chad's going the wrong but another big-priced wager, Robert Garrigus, is climbing the leaderboard.

The in-form Carl Pettersson (2nd at the Shell two weeks ago) is looming large and that's a bit frustrating. I've backed him in this a few times but left him out this time around. There's a very long way to go yet though.

I'd written in the preview about how the winners can come from off the pace here but I wouldn't be surprised if that doesn't happen this year now. The greens are playing very fast and they've tweaked the course a bit. I can't see it getting any easier on the weekend and low scores don't look likely. Having a grinder like Furyk in the mix might just be ideal.

13:50 - April 12, 2012

Although it's early days, given I've got involved in Malaysia, I thought I'd kick off the blog.

The RBC Heritage has only just kicked off so there's nothing to report there but they've already finished round one at the Maybank Malaysian Open and I've had an in-running play already.

My two pre-event picks have flopped and grabbing the headlines are South African friends Charl Schwartzel and Louis Oosthuizen, who played together this morning. Schwartzel leads after an opening eight-under-par 64, and Louis, who shot two shots worse, is in a tie for 3rd. Jeev Milkha Singh is currently 2nd on -7 but I've backed someone much further down the list...

Although raindrops fell and storm clouds threatened, we didn't experience any delays today but that might not be the case tomorrow. Today's afternoon starters may look miles behind now but that may not be the case this time tomorrow and although it really doesn't look like it now, if the weather does close in tomorrow, today's late starters may have the advantage. Given the cream has risen to the top at this venue so far, I've spent the morning nibbling away at the classiest of those that that will be up and at 'um early tomorrow - Martin Kaymer, at odds of over [20.0].

Starting out six behind on -2, it will be his turn to play in the best of the conditions tomorrow and there's a strong chance that Schwartzel and co get delayed in the afternoon and that they'll need to come back early on Saturday to finish off.

There are a few ifs and buts there obviously but I fancy it's worth the risk. Hopefully I'll wake up in the morning to see Kaymer has at least caught Schwartzel and that he's nicely tucked away in his hotel watching the storms gather. We'll see.

Maybank Malaysian Open Pre-event Picks:
Bernd Wiesberger @ [140.0]
James Morrison @ [160.0]

In-Running Play
Martin Kaymer @ an average of [23.0]
Alvaro Quiros @ [55.0]

RBC Heritage Pre-Event Picks:
Jim Furyk @ [20.0]
Zach Johnson @ an average of just over [50.0]
Brian Gay @ [100.0]
Mark Wilson @ [110.0]
George McNeil @ [180.0]
Robert Garrigus @ [180.0]
Chad Campbell @ [250.0]
Stephen Ames @ [280.0]
Time Herron @ an average of [340.0]

Our man takes a look at this week's US PGA Tour event, where he can see Jim Furyk contending again and where value picks are plentiful. Read Steve's preview here......

Steve takes a good look at this week's Race to Dubai event in Kuala Lumpur. Will another promising youngster take the title?...

Steve looks back on yet another fantastic Masters tournament. What lessons have we learnt for next year?...

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Dubai Desert Classic: Kaymer back on The Punter's menu

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 07 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Martin Kaymer – Can he contend at the Emirates?

“Kaymer comes into the event without any of the pressures of last year and in a weaker field, at a much better price, and off the back of an extremely encouraging week in Qatar, I simply had to back him.”

Our man takes a good look at the last leg of the Middle East Swing, where Rory McIlroy's a warm order, but is he value?

Tournament
This will be the 23rd staging of the Dubai Desert Classic, the final leg of the Race to Dubai's Middle East Swing.

Venue
Emirates Golf Club, Dubai, UAE

Course Details
Par 72, 7301 yards. The Majlis course, designed by Karl Litten and opened in 1988, has hosted the event since its inception. Like last week's venue, Doha GC in Qatar, the wind is often a factor, especially in the afternoons. The front nine ends with a stretch of three tough holes in four - the 6th, 8th and 9th are all strong par fours, so the back nine is the scoring nine, with three par fives (the 10th, 13th and 18th). Water is in play on ten holes. A good all round game is required here but an ability to hit it long off the tee and to putt on Bermuda certainly won't go amiss. Over the last few years, good scrambling has been a key stat too.

Useful Sites

Course Guide

Official Event Site

Tee Times

TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days - starting 6.00am Thursday and Friday, 9.00am Saturday and 8.00am on Sunday.

Last five winners
2011 - Alvaro Quiros -11
2010 - Miguel Angel Jimenez -11 (Playoff)
2009 - Rory McIlroy -19
2008 - Tiger Woods -14
2007 - Henrik Stenson -19

Typical Winner
It certainly helps if you're long off the tee but it's not absolutely imperative. You do need to hit plenty of greens though and if you don't, you need a brilliant short game to save pars. There have been one or two shock winners over the years but the title usually goes to a top-class contender.

Market Leader
It's impossible to crab favourite Rory McIlroy. He's in fine form, his first Tour win came here in 2009, and he clearly loves this place. He's led after the first round in each of the last three years, so an argument could be made for a trade at least, but he's simply too short for my liking at just [5.4]. Especially when you bear in mind how poorly he's finished the event in the last two years. He was 10th last year and 6th in 2010.

Second favourite, Martin Kaymer, recovered well last week in Qatar after his surprising missed cut at his beloved Abu Dhabi Golf Club. He's always struggled at Doha in the past, so his top-ten finish caught the eye.

Lee Westwood will feel as if this event owes him one, he really should have won here two years ago. He's played the event 13 times in total though and other than that effort in 2010, his record's quite ordinary and I'm happy to overlook him once again.

Peter Hansen, fourth best at [24.0], ticks the form and course form boxes boldly and he'll have an army of followers but as detailed in yesterdays De-brief, he's not one to trust in the mix and I can't take to him at all.

Selections
I swerved Martin Kaymer in last year's renewal at a lot less than he trades at this time around and rightly so. I was wary of the fact that he'd just become world number one, and that he was placed in a high profile three-ball, alongside Tiger Woods and Lee Westwood. He comes into the event without any of those pressures this time around and in a weaker field, at a much better price, and off the back of an extremely encouraging week in Qatar, I simply had to back him. His form figures here read 2-4-4-31 and if he hadn't flopped last year, he'd have been a point or two shorter.

Defending Champion, Alvaro Quiros, isn't happy with his game and comes here after two disappointing efforts. A missed cut in Abu Dhabi was followed by a very ordinary effort in Qatar but I'm going to stick with him. The big problem last week was putting and that could be down to the particularly slow greens. He actually topped the Driving Distance stats and ranked 6th for Greens In Regulation, so although he's bemoaning his form, the rest of his game seems to be in good order. Given he traded at heavy odds on in 2010 and quite frankly blew it on that occasion, and given he made two triple-bogeys and came from ten back after day one last year to win, I felt he was a big enough price to take a chance on this time around.

The first bet I struck this week was on Thomas Bjorn. The Dane got blown away on day one last week but recovered brilliantly. I thought the rejuvenated Bjorn, who won this back in 2001, would have been no bigger than [25.0] this week so taking the [30.0] available yesterday didn't take a lot of pondering over.

Young Dane, Thorbjørn Olesen, didn't back up a good performance in Abu Dhabi, finishing well down the field last week in Qatar but he was too big at [130.0] here, and last up is Thongchai Jaidee. The Thai veteran put in a much improved performance last week and should have gotten himself into the playoff here two years ago.

Dubai Desert Classic Selections
Martin Kaymer @ [10.0]
Alvaro Quiros @ [28.0]
Thomas Bjorn @ [30.0]
Thorbjørn Olesen @ [140.0]
Thongchai Jaidee @ [220.0]

I'll be back later with a preview of the US Tour's event, the AT & T Pebble Beach National, and I'll kick off the In-Play Blog on either Thursday or Friday.

Steve runs the rule over this week's US PGA Tour event, what's it going to take to win at Pebble?...

Pre-event pick Ben Crane comes up a shot shy but Steve was still happy to see Kyle Stanley win in Phoenix and he couldn't have been more impressed by Paul Lawrie's success in Qatar......

Steve takes a look at the state of play in Qatar, where he fancies a low round from someone might just nick it. And in the States, there's a warning for anyone tempted by the current leader......

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Commercialbank Qatar Masters: Back Kaymer for day one win

Three Ball Bets / Dan Geraghty / 01 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

He disappointed last week, can he find form in Qatar?

"Alvaro Quiros and the stats say that this is a course for the long hitters, with that in mind I'm taking arguably the longest on tour, Nicolas Colsaerts [1.91], to get the better of two of the shortest hitters on tour Colin Montgomerie and Jose Maria Olazabal."

Dan Geraghty is hoping for better luck with his three-ball tips, making four selections for the opening day action at the Commercialbank Qatar Masters

Unfortunately the nature of three-ball betting means there are going to be weeks like last, I just hope they are kept to a minimum!

All three recommended golfers led before finishing second in their three-balls. Tiger played well tee-to-green but he wasn't good enough to better the mercurial Rory McIlroy; Joost Luiten also finished day one under par only to find Nicolas Colsaerts too good while Alexander Noren took care of Branden Grace but was overtaken by Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano. To add insult to injury, all three went on to win their three ball on day two.

This week the European Tour makes the short trip to Qatar and by all accounts the players will face a battle, Christian Cevaer has used Twitter to inform us the course is playing like a links - hard and windy, but with rough, water and huge grain!

Martin Kaymer [2.74] will no doubt be hurting after last weeks missed cut. All the headlines leading up to the event were focused on the German but for whatever reason it just didn't happen for him. He got off to a bad start and the course was playing tougher than usual. The German ace couldn't get himself back on terms, meaning a fast start this week is all the more important.

Kaymer's playing partners are Alvaro Quiros and KJ Choi. Quiros has a fantastic record here but if the wind blows, he can struggle, as last year's opening 75 shows. Choi is also a dangerous adversary but is making his debut here and I am backing Kaymer to come out on top after day one.

One young man that should enjoy the battle is Peter Uihlein [3.5]. The youngster performed with great credit in tough conditions at the 2011 Open, where he narrowly lost out on the silver medal to Tom Lewis, who has, of course, since gone on to win on the European Tour.

Uihlein started his professional career last week on the European Tour's sister tour - The Challenge Tour, where he improved round on round to finish a very respectable 12th. The American has already spent some time pre-season practising in the desert with Lee Westwood and his other new 'stablemates' and at the prices I'm willing to give him a chance to beat Thomas Aiken, who has played four tournaments in quick succession and failed to score in the 60s last week, and Damian McGrane, who likes tough conditions but has started the season very poorly and has a terrible record here.

Lorenzo Gagli [2.6] enhanced his reputation with a fine campaign last term, he's yet to win but many are expecting big things this time around. The Italian appears to have started the season slightly sharper than those he faces in his opening day three ball (Raphael Jacquelin and Michael Hoey) and with the cobwebs blown away last week he can make a fast start.

Alvaro Quiros and the stats say that this is a course for the long hitters, with that in mind I'm taking arguably the longest on tour, Nicolas Colsaerts [1.91], to get the better of two of the shortest hitters on tour Colin Montgomerie and Jose Maria Olazabal.

Godspeed, my friends.

Recommended Bets
Kaymer [2.74] - 2 points win
Uihlein [3.5] - 1 point win
Gagli [2.6] - 1 point win
Colsaserts [1.91] - 2 points win

Running profit / loss: - 5.74 points

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Kaymer v Woods v Westwood: Who will be the desert king?

Golf Bets / Joe Dyer / 09 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

A relaxed Kaymer can beat his faltering opponents

"Of the trio, there is only one man in form - Kaymer."

The three best golfers in the world get down to business at the Dubai Desert Classic on Thursday morning - who will emerge on top?

Golf fans get a breakfast-time treat when the top three in the world rankings tee it up at the Dubai Desert Classic on Thursday morning.

It could be a battle royale, it could be a massive letdown, but there is bound to be massive interest at 8:20am UK time when Tiger Woods (no.3), Martin Kaymer (no.2) and Lee Westwood (no.1) compete for bragging rights in the desert heat.

In truth, of the trio, there is only one man in form - Kaymer - and the market reflects that with the rising German star priced at [2.7] to emerge with the best first round score. Woods is next in the betting at [2.98] with Westwood the [3.25] outsider.

The 26-year-old already has a tournament win this year (three weeks ago in Abu Dhabi) while his more experienced opponents have struggled so far - Westwood missing the cut at the Qatar Masters, while Woods laboured to an unimpressive 44th place finish at his favourite Torrey Pines track two weeks ago.

In terms of course form each man has a reason to back him - Woods is a previous winner, Westwood last year's runner-up while Kaymer has finished second, fourth and fourth in the last three years.

The German has shown an aptitude for repeating good performances at courses he enjoys and that, coupled with his current form, make him the bet at [2.7].

The three best golfers in the world get down to business at the Dubai Desert Classic on Thursday morning - who will emerge on top?...

The top three golfers in the world are in action on the European Tour this week and Mike Norman believes Lee Westwood can prove why he's top of the tree....

The big man with a big swing is Dan Geraghty's headline tip in this week's Three Against the Field column...

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