Against All Odds: Fulham to defy the odds at the Cottage

"Fulham picked up a much needed victory at home to West Ham last week and after sliding down the league table, they’ve now lost just one of their lost four, and that came away at the defending champions."

Lay Man United v Fulham @ 1.645/8

Manchester United are odds-on for their trip to the capital this evening but Paul Robinson thinks that Fulham could spring a surprise in what should be a thrilling game live on ESPN at 17:30.

A bright start to the week has turned dark with four losers in a row, however I've adopted a slightly new approach and been looking to take on shorter priced selections, so although our strike rate may go down slightly, profits should start to go up.

Fulham picked up a much needed victory at home to West Ham last week and after sliding down the league table, they've now lost just one of their lost four, and that came away at the defending champions. Dimitar Berbatov netted in the West Ham game but he's been ruled out with injury today - which is clearly a blow - however his manager does have other options in his squad to choose from.

Martin Jol's side have traditionally been strong at Craven Cottage and after a small blip that saw them lose three from five, they have got things a bit more on track recently, avoiding defeat in four out of their last five, including two victories. 

Manchester United don't need an introduction as we all know how impressive they've been this term, well, in front of goal anyway. The Red Devils have scored an incredible 59 goals in 24 matches and despite conceding 31 themselves, they have a seven point gap at the top of the table.

Their form away from Old Trafford isn't exactly bombproof though. They've only won three of their last six in the league, losing at Norwich and being held by Swansea and Spurs. Sir Alex Ferguson's side kept just the single clean sheet during that period and they did fire a blank themselves. 

Clearly, Manchester United are the worthy favourites for this one but I feel  their odds are a little cramped at around the 1.645/8 mark. Like a few of my selections recently, it's more a value bet than anything else, and that's why I'm making them my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Man United v Fulham @ 1.645/8

Wagered: 32 pts
Returned: 27.93 pts
P/L - 4.07 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Fulham v Manchester United: Red Devils to move 10 points clear at the top

"Throw in the fact that Fulham’s home games have averaged over three goals per game this term, and that United have averaged three goals scored against Saturday’s opponents in recent years, then it’s a straightforward task to recommend Over 3.5 Goals at 2.68/5."

Fulham are out to gain quick compensation for their defeat to Manchester United in the FA Cup last Saturday, but Mike Norman believes the Cottagers will be left disappointed...

Fulham v Manchester United
Kick-off Saturday 17:30, live on ESPN

Just a week after Manchester United handed out a 4-1 thrashing to Fulham in the FA Cup the two sides meet again, this time in the Premier League and this time at Craven Cottage. But don't expect the outcome to be any different.

Sir Alex Ferguson has exactly the same squad of players now as he had before the January Transfer Window - even £15m capture Wilfried Zaha is back at Crystal Palace on loan - and few can blame the United boss for putting his faith in the same group of players that have taken the club seven points clear at the top of the table.

Fulham however did make some Deadline Day signings. Martin Jol has brought in Dutch international midfielder Urby Emanuelson, Bulgarian defender Stanislav Manolev, and Cameroonian defensive midfielder Eyong Enoh, all on loan.

All three of the Cottagers' new boys could play a part in the game against United, but one man who is unlikely to figure is ex-Red Devil Dimitar Berbatov after he pulled a hamstring in his side's 3-1 win over West Ham in midweek.

United's form leading up to the game is sold, Fulham's is patchy at best (just three league wins from their last 16 outings), and with Opta pointing out that Man Utd have won six and drawn one of their last seven meetings with the London club then it's easy to understand why the league leaders are strong favourites to collect another three points.

Match Odds

United took full advantage of Manchester City's failure to beat QPR on Tuesday night with an unimpressive 2-1 win over Southampton at Old Trafford 24 hours later. But we're getting to the business end of the season now, and unimpressive victories, especially when your main title rivals fail to win, are just as welcome as any other victory.

On that performance alone however some may view the 1.664/6 on offer for a United win a little on the skinny side - Fulham can be backed at 6.05/1 with the Draw at 4.3100/30.

But it's unlikely that United will play as poor again, and with five straight victories over Fulham, scoring 15 goals in the process, Ferguson's men will be extremely confident of extending their lead at the top of the table to 10 points.

United put four past the Cottagers just seven days ago in the cup, and with a stronger line-up expected for this encounter, and their ability to score goals away from home not in any doubt, then it's easy to envisage them scoring three or four again. An away win has to be the call.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Just because this fixture is at Craven Cottage and not at Old Trafford doesn't mean we shouldn't expect as many goals as we saw last weekend. United are by far the highest scoring side in the Premier League away from home, and the 27 goals that they have scored on their travels is just five short of the number of home league goals they've scored this season.

Throw in the fact that Fulham's home games have averaged over three goals per game this term, and that United have averaged three goals scored against Saturday's opponents in recent years, then it's a straightforward task to recommend Over 3.5 Goals at 2.68/5.

Other Markets

Slightly contradictory to the above, backing the No option in the Both teams to Score market at 2.3811/8 is certainly something to think about. With Nemanja Vidic back to full fitness, and Berbatov expected to miss the game, it's possible that United could win this in easy fashion without conceding a goal.

Preference however is to have a small wager on Any Unquoted in the Correct Score market at 6.05/1. I really do fancy some goals in this game so there's no need for me to concern myself debating whether the home side will score or not. If United score three or four as I expect them too then there'll be plenty of opportunity for me to lock in some profits on my recommended bets.

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.68/5
Back Any Unquoted Correct Score @ 6.05/1
Back Man Utd to win @ 1.664/6

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Premier League: Fulham focus on reinforcing up front

"Liverpool boss Brendan Rodgers rather surprisingly revealed at the start of the week that he would seriously consider the possibility of sending the England international out on loan."

Fulham have signed Mladen Petric and Hugo Rodallega on free transfers, with speculation rife that they want Andy Carroll too...

For a club who are usually the embodiment of stability, Fulham's forward line has endured more upheaval in 2012 than over the preceding few years combined.

The overhaul started with the sale of Bobby Zamora to QPR in January. Andy Johnson has since followed him there, loan star Pavel Pogrebnyak decided that he saw his future at Reading rather than at Craven Cottage and Orlando Sa was released.

With those departures leaving only players who are as much attacking midfielders as strikers, such as Bryan Ruiz, Clint Dempsey and Moussa Dembele, Martin Jol arguably required at least three new additions, and two of those have already been secured.

Mladen Petric, who flourished under the Dutch manager at Hamburg in 2008/09, arrived after being released by the Bundesliga club and is to be joined by out-of-contract former Wigan attacker Hugo Rodallega, subject to a work permit.

The lack of funds required to bring those two in should mean that they can afford to invest fairly heavily on a potential partner, and reports over the last few days suggest that Andy Carroll is the man that they have in mind.

Liverpool boss Brendan Rodgers rather surprisingly revealed at the start of the week that he would seriously consider the possibility of sending the England international out on loan, in reaction to rumours that AC Milan were keen on such an arrangement.

It is alleged that Fulham have taken that as confirmation that there is no place in Rodgers' plans for the striker that his predecessors splurged £35 million on, and will attempt to prise him away with an offer of £9 million plus supposed Reds target Dempsey.

The sense that this will be a busier summer for the Cottagers than usual isn't just gained from their tinkering up front, as they also need to replace Danny Murphy in midfield after their captain - who started 33 Premier League games in 2011/12 - joined Blackburn.

Fulham have finished in the top half in three of the last four campaigns and are 3.052/1 to take up residence in the top ten once again next season.

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Manchester United v Fulham: Reds will take their chance

Manchester United / Soccer Widow / 25 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Antonio Valencia - firing on all cylinders

"Fulham's recent record at Old Trafford is abysmal with just one win from the last 12 games there in all competitions. United won the other 11, seven of them by a two-goal-or-more margin."

Soccerwidow studies the stats and finds stand-out value bets as Manchester United bid to steal a march on their title rivals.

It would have been too good to be true for fans of Manchester United if Chelsea had held on at Manchester City in mid-week. But with Stoke putting up an heroic performance on Saturday, the Red Devils can create a three point cushion on Monday night against Fulham.

Fulham's recent record at Old Trafford is abysmal with just one win from the last 12 games played there in all competitions, whilst United have won the other 11, seven of those by a two-goal-or-more margin. Fulham's recent away record in the Premier League is not much more promising, winning just five of their last 25 (20%), and losing on 11 occasions (44%).

Sir Alex Ferguson will hope that his squad comfortably defeats Fulham and makes in-roads into the four goal difference between City and United. Fulham are the league's lowest scorers away from home but will feature Pavel Pogrebnyak up front, who has scored in a victory over United, for former club Zenit St Petersburg in the 2008 European Super Cup match.

The United team will probably be without Nani but this is not an issue with Antonio Valencia fully fit and firing on all cylinders again. United look more balanced whenever he plays and his composure and unselfish approach in front of goal contrasts with Nani, who more often than not looks to shoot on sight, with only moderate results.

Detailed Stats Analysis

Head-to-Head record last 12 games; Manchester United at home, Fulham away (all competitions since 1998-99):

• Full-time: United 11 wins (91.67%); no draws; Fulham one win (8.33%); Last six (most recent first): H-H-H-H-H-H

• Full-time: United winning by two-goals-or-more: seven times (58.3%); Fulham winning by two-goals-or-more: once (8.33%)

• Half-time: United eight wins (66.67%); four draws (33.33%); Fulham no wins (0%)

• Full-time over 2.5 goals eight times (66.67%); full-time over 3.5 goals four times (33.33%)

• Total goals last six meetings (most recent first): 2-3-3-2-6-6

Manchester United's last 25 Premier League home games:
• Full-time: 22 wins (88%); one draw (4%); two defeats (8%); Last six (most recent first): W-W-W-W-L-W

• Full-time: winning by two goals or more: 14 times (63.6% of their 22 wins)

• Half-time: United 16 wins (64%); seven draws (28%); two defeats (8%)

• Full-time over 2.5 goals 15 times (60%); full-time over 3.5 goals nine times (36%)

• Total goals last six home games (most recent first): 2-3-2-3-5-5

Fulham's last 25 Premier League away games:

• Full-time: five wins (20%); nine draws (36%); 11 defeats (44%); Last six (most recent first): L-W-L-L-D-D

• Full-time: winning by two goals or more: four times (80% of their five wins)

• Half-time: Fulham six wins (24%); 10 draws (40%); nine defeats (36%)

• Full-time over 2.5 goals six times (24%); full-time over 3.5 goals twice (8%)

• Total goals last six away games (most recent first): 1-1-3-4-2-2

Summary

Interesting to see how few goals feature in Fulham's away fixtures with 13 out of 25 games (52%) finishing with just two, four matches with only one (16%), plus two 0-0 draws (8%). All told, 76% of their last 25 league games away from home have finished under 2.5 goals.

United have not had a single 0-0, have had only four home matches involving just a single goal (16%), plus six games with a total of two goals (24%). These statistics equate to 40% of their last 25 league home games ending with fewer than 2.5 goals.

Of Fulham's last 25 away fixtures, 92% have ended under 3.5 goals as opposed to 64% of United's last 25 home games.

This is another game where the market has determined the 'draw' odds by taking the league average into consideration rather than head-to-head comparisons. The current lay odds are [6.8], whereas in reality, the 'true' draw odds are [10.0]. Laying the draw is therefore a possibility with only a 10% chance of it occurring. Whether the prudent bettor wishes to 'gamble' with odds this high is another matter.

Value Bet Recommendations:

Back full-time Manchester United to win (odds [1.25] 'true' odds based on head-to-head results since 1998-99 are 1.09; value 277.77%; probability 91.67%)

Back full-time under 3.5 goals (odds [1.60] 'true' odds 1.38; value 56.9%; probability 72.33%)

Because of the very clear prognosis this week, there are hardly any value bets to be found for this match. No matter which formulae are used to compile the probabilities and odds this is one of those exceptional games where all computations lead to the same results and the whole market seems to be in agreement.

So, only two 'value bet' recommendations but herewith a few other ideas which, although highly likely to occur, do not necessarily carry any 'value'.

It is 46% likely that Manchester United will win both halves, with current odds at [2.3]; 93% likely that Fulham will not keep a clean sheet at odds of [1.08]; 57% likely that United will keep a clean sheet at odds of [1.88]

Five-star United [1.49] for the title after destroying new relegation favourites Wolves...

After exiting the Europa League in midweek Manchester United's season has come down to just the league with Wolves the opposition on Sunday. Recent Betting.Betfair signing, the Soccer Widow, analyses the game from her unique perspective, picking up the best...

Wolves are a side in a slump and Manchester United very much a team on the up. Sometimes the obvious outcome leads to obvious bets and that's probably the case here, says Lee Dixon....

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PFA Player of the Year: Fulham top scorer deserves recognition

Premier League / Michael Lintorn / 02 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Clint Dempsey scored his 16th goal of the season against West Brom

"Given that this is the stage of the season in which players are usually hassled for their PFA Player of the Year picks, it would be great if Dempsey proves to be peaking just in time to earn a surprise place on the shortlist."

Michael Lintorn is hoping that there is a shock spot on this season's PFA player of the year shortlist for Fulham's American star Clint Dempsey...

Pavel Pogrebnyak signed too late, Andy Johnson and Moussa Dembele were injured and Bobby Zamora left for QPR on deadline day. None of that mattered though, because as long as Clint Dempsey is fit, Fulham look likely to find the net right now.

Cottagers fans probably won't appreciate the comparison, but Dempsey is becoming a bit of a Frank Lampard figure for the less fashionable west Londoners: critics arguing that he has no outstanding qualities, yet he continues to prove utterly prolific.

The American being a reliable source of goals isn't a new development, scoring at least six in each of his five full Premier League campaigns, however after achieving a personal best of 12 last term, he has scaled new heights this year.

While everyone around him has performed fitfully, the 28-year-old has fired 16 times, reaching double figures in the league with his strike against West Brom on Wednesday to show that he is a serious contender to be one of the division's top four goal-getters at [14.0].

Those ten are three more than Johnson, Dembele, Bryan Ruiz and Orlando Sa have hit between them, and twice as many as Zamora, and it is over the last two months that he has truly flourished, grabbing 11 in 13 appearances.

Given that this is the stage of the season in which players are usually hassled for their PFA Player of the Year picks, it would be great if he proves to be peaking just in time to earn a surprise place on the shortlist.

Charlie Adam and Scott Parker made it in 2011 while representing soon-to-be relegated clubs - the latter also scooping the FWA Footballer of the Year prize - signalling that it's not all about the stars at the top of the table, and Dempsey's feats deserve similar recognition.

The Premier League's all-time leading American scorer is available to back on Betfair, where Manchester City's David Silva is currently a [2.12] favourite.

Opta stats confirm that if the Premier League season had started on the December day of Martin O'Neill's first Sunderland fixture, they would be top of the table right now......

There were hefty prizes up for grabs for correct-score punters who called the Arsenal, Aston Villa, Sunderland and Lazio outcomes on Betfair......

Cisse announces Premier League return with early goal but Villa fight back turns match on its head. Meanwhile, north east teams march on, Blackburn's misery continues and Roy bags a point at the Cottage......

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Opta Stats: Manchester City v Fulham

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 02 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Damien Duff has previous when it comes to causing Man City problems

Fulham have been a bit of a bogey team for Manchester City in recent seasons - will they be the ones to end the Premier League leaders' perfect home record?

Neither side have kept a clean sheet in the last 15 Premier League matches between Fulham and Man City.

In the last eight league games between Man City and Fulham, 13 of the 14 goals the Whites have scored have been netted in the second half, while 11 of the 15 Man City have scored have come in the first half.

In fact, all of the last 24 goals scored by Man City in this fixture have come before the 60th minute.

Damien Duff has scored in his last two away games against Man City.

Manchester City have won their last 16 Premier League home matches since drawing 1-1 at home to Fulham in February 2011.

Arsenal are the only team to restrict Man City to fewer than two goals in the 11 league games at the Etihad Stadium this season and on nine occasions they've netted three or more.

Fulham have won just one of their last 11 Premier League away games (W1 D5 L5) and none of the last six (W0 D4 L2).

Fulham have lost none of their last four away games against Man City (W2 D2 L0).

79% of the goals Man City have conceded have been shipped in the second half of games, the highest proportion in the Premier League.

Fulham are the only team in the Premier League who have not conceded a penalty this season.

Liverpool have hit form recently and are even able to welcome Luis Suarez back on Monday night - will they halt Tottenham's title bid?...

Chelsea's home record hasn't been great this season, however after tripping up leaders Manchester City in December, they will be hopeful of causing Manchester United trouble......

Aston Villa were humiliated on their last visit to Tyneside, but will have an opportunity to claim revenge in front of the cameras on Sunday lunchtime......

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FA Cup Opta Stats: Everton v Fulham (and all D-H ties)

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 25 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

2008-09 runners-up Everton have a dismal FA Cup record against Fulham

Opta explain why Everton are vulnerable at home to Fulham in the FA Cup fourth round and offer guidance for betting on Derby v Stoke and Hull v Crawley too...

Derby v Stoke

Derby and Stoke have met three times in the FA Cup with the Rams winning two and the Potters once, but they haven't met in the competition since 1938.

Stoke have won their last three FA Cup matches away from home.

Derby have been eliminated the last five times that they have drawn top flight opponents in the FA Cup

The last time the two sides met was in the 2008-09 Carling Cup when Derby 1-0 at the Britannia Stadium courtesy of a last-minute penalty.

The Rams are without a win in 13 FA Cup meetings with sides from a higher division (D3 L10): their last win was against Sheffield United in 1986.

Stoke have lost only one of their last 15 FA Cup games against sides from a lower division.

Everton v Fulham

Everton have won the last 18 straight home league games against Fulham, but in four FA Cup matches at home they have drawn twice and lost twice to the Cottagers.

Fulham have drawn the Toffees four times in the FA Cup and knocked them out on each occasion, three times after a replay.

Everton have been knocked out of the FA Cup at Goodison Park in four of the last five seasons; in the other campaign, they were beaten finalists.

The Whites have won just one of 14 FA Cup matches away from home against top flight opponents when they themselves have been in the highest tier of English football.

Everton are without a win in their last five FA Cup games against fellow Premier League sides (D3 L2).

Fulham have progressed on the last 10 occasions that they have played in the fourth round.

Hull v Crawley

This will be the first-ever meeting between Hull City and Crawley.

Hull are playing in the fourth round for only the second time since 1989.

The Tigers have won their last three matches in the fourth round of the FA Cup.

Since 1997, Hull have lost only one of their 11 FA Cup matches against sides from a lower division (W7 D3).

Nick Barmby's side have scored at least twice in their last four FA Cup games at home.

Since the start of last season, Crawley have lost just one of their nine games in the FA Cup proper (0-1 at Old Trafford), winning seven.

Crawley have won four of their last five FA Cup away games.

Matt Tubbs is the second-top scorer in the FA Cup proper since the start of last season (seven goals).

Opta have a vast array of statistics regarding this weekend's FA Cup fourth-round clashes between Watford and Tottenham and West Brom and Norwich......

Here is Opta's verdict on the FA Cup fourth-round encounters taking place at QPR, Sheffield United, Stevenage and Sunderland this weekend......

Opta have plenty of insights into the most high-profile FA Cup fourth-round tie between Liverpool and Manchester United, while the omens are promising for Leicester and Southampton in theirs......

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Opta Stats: Stoke v Fulham

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 12 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Andy Johnson eased the pressure on Martin Jol with a hat-trick against QPR

A solid defensive display in the first half is essential for Stoke if they are to see off the challenge of improving Fulham...

Stoke City have fired in fewer shots on target (17) than any other team in the Premier League.

75% of the goals Stoke have conceded have been netted in the first half, the highest proportion in the top flight.

Stoke played Fulham three times last season (twice in the league and once in the Carling Cup) and all the games finished with a 2-0 scoreline.

Clint Dempsey has scored three goals in the last four league meetings between Stoke and Fulham.

Bobby Zamora has scored in four of his last five Premier League appearances.

Peter Crouch has scored in three of his last five Premier League starts against Fulham.

Tony Pulis' side have scored just four goals in their last nine Premier League matches.

The Potters have won only two of their last nine games (W2 D3 L4).

Since losing to Fulham at the Britannia Stadium, Stoke have lost just one of their last 12 Premier League home games (W7 D4 L1).

Fulham's win over QPR ended a run of seven matches in the league without a victory for the Whites (D5 L2).

Newcastle's stingy defence meets Tottenham's prolific attack on Sunday. Here's Opta's take on how that battle will unfold......

The Opta trends indicate that Arsenal will begin climbing the table with three points against Sunderland on Sunday, but don't expect a big scoreline......

The first few minutes could prove decisive in Sunday's grudge match at The Hawthorns, with the Baggies frequently flying out of the blocks of late......

Everton have a fine recent record against Chelsea, who have been uncharacteristically leaky at the back. Could there be a shock at Stamford Bridge?...

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Europa League Betting: Crusaders v Fulham

Europa League / Michael Lintorn / 13 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

"They are yet to concede, have fired more than once in only one of their last nine away matches in Europe and had the joint-best travelling defence in the Premier League in 2010-11."

Fulham's relentless pre-season continues on Thursday with a Europa League qualifier in Northern Ireland against Crusaders. Michael Lintorn makes a case for laying the Cottagers....

It didn't receive too much attention because their 3-0 first-leg lead rendered it fairly irrelevant, but Fulham's failure to win or even score against NSI Runavik in the Faroe Islands was something of a shock given the latter's dreadful European home record.

The minnows had lost five of their previous six continental contests in front of their fans, conceding 15 times in the process, so their clean sheet against a team that reached the final of the competition in 2009-10 was a fairly significant upset despite the lack of pressure that was on the Cottagers.

Martin Jol's side will be as relaxed about the prospect of going to Belfast to face IFA Premiership runners-up Crusaders, a streak of six straight Europa League victories at Craven Cottage sure to breed confidence that they will get the job done there even if they fail to deliver in Northern Ireland.

On their run to the final two seasons ago, Fulham won just twice on the road from the group stage onwards, while their best domestic away campaign in seven years last term featured only three triumphs. That and the result in the Faroe Islands render their odds of [1.23] surprisingly short.

That indicates that another draw is an attractive proposition at [7.2], especially as four of Fulham's last six Europa League games outside of west London have been level after 90 minutes, and additionally because Crusaders have lost both legs of just two of their last six European ties.

For those that expect the visitors' class to shine through, another above-evens bet to look at is under 2.5 goals at [2.22]. They are yet to concede, have fired more than once in only one of their last nine away matches in Europe and had the joint-best travelling defence in the Premier League in 2010-11.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ [2.22]
Other Recommended Bet: Lay Fulham @ [1.24]

Fulham are overwhelming favourites for their Europa League qualifier against NSI Runavik, but Michael Lintorn thinks the Faroese minnows are capable of scoring....

Liverpool go into this second leg trailing by a single goal, but Mike Norman believes Braga's poor away form will contribute massively to Kenny Dalglish's side progressing further....

Man City can qualify for the quarter-finals by overturning a two-goal deficit against the Ukrainian outfit says Mike Norman, but only if Roberto Mancini names a strong side....

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Fulham Players: Cottage in order with Murphy at the helm

Players Under The Microscope / Paul Moon / 13 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Danny Murphy bosses the Fulham midfield and chips in with a few goals a season

"Fulham have enjoyed their most successful period in their history with Murphy as captain, something that has largely passed unnoticed. Once he leaves the club via a transfer or eventual retirement, his true value will be recognised."

He's not one of the Premier League's more fashionable players nor is the club he plays for but the stats don't lie and Danny Murphy's worth to the cause is immense, says Paul Moon.

Poor technique is the major reason why very few British footballers and midfielders in particular, are successfully able to play for a top team on the continent. Danny Murphy is a rare product of the English game in that he could have played there and flourished. More so than most of his domestic colleagues, he has a decent first touch, a fine range of passing and understands the importance of ball retention.

Statistics composed by Opta and posted on Sky revealed an astonishing fact - Murphy had completed the most passes in the Premier League (2329) last season. What is both remarkable and surprising is that he accomplished the feat with a mid-table football club, which is what Fulham are. One imagined a player in a top tier club would have completed those numbers and with a team normally associated with mastering the art of possession. These statistics look even better when you discover he also came fifth in making the most tackles behind Lucas (Liverpool), Vaughan (Blackpool), Alcaraz (Wigan) and Parker (West Ham).

Looking at the reaction on the forums, the suggestion is that a lot of those passes were irrelevant or sideways. There is no such thing. Keeping the ball is an art form and something at odds with the British public psyche. You cannot fluke those Opta statistics and I prefer Mark Hughes's evaluation of the player when he acknowledged 'Murphy works at the coal face of the game.'

His career has generally been described as 'solid' but that particular word falls short of describing his value. There are negatives attached to his career though, of course. As a player we can accuse him of not being ambitious enough and consequently, he has under-achieved. He has resigned himself to being a big fish in a small pond and has quipped on a couple of occasions that he has 'no intention of sitting on a bench and taking the money' and this philosophy has shaped his career. It could be something he regrets later in life when he's hung up his boots.

When he left Liverpool at 27-years old and approaching his peak he downgraded and played for three somewhat average sides in Chartlon, Tottenham (average at the time 2006/07) and Fulham. His detractors talk about a lack of pace and this is fair comment, but like all class players of that mould, his sound positional play easily compensates for any lack of speed.

He played nine times for England, scoring once ,and was due to play in the 2002 World Cup before falling victim to the dreaded metatarsal injury; that obviously hindered his career at a crucial stage. Had he the opportunity to showcase his talents to the world that year it is doubtful his path would have led to Craven Cottage and he may yet have secured a big move where he could have played a starring role in a trophy-winning spell.

He will be most remembered for his career at Liverpool that included a most unique cup treble in 2001 - League Cup, FA Cup and UEFA Cup. There he developed an uncanny knack of scoring the deciding goal in tight matches. At Old Trafford he scored the only goal in three wins over Manchester United in four consecutive seasons and one can only imagine what was said in those forums in Lancashire at the time.

Surprisingly and considering the football knowledge of the Anfield faithful, most did not mourn his exit and this was at odds with his major contribution. He never played regularly in his best position and this was proven when he rose another level after his departure. Fulham have enjoyed their most successful period in their history with Murphy as captain, something that has largely passed unnoticed. Once he leaves the club via a transfer or eventual retirement, his true value will be recognised.

At 34-years old he is coming to the end of his playing career and has made no secret of his desire to go into coaching where he has all the credential to do well. He is intelligent, clearly understands the game and has man-management skills. Dario Gradi of Crewe rated his football intelligence so highly as a youngster that he sent him on scouting missions. He is still regarded as a legend at that club and would be welcomed with open arms should he wish to be manager somewhere down the line.

Judging by his keen interest in football management this could well be Murphy's last year and he would hope that Fulham replicate their eighth place from last year. But after looking at the candidates in that's an odds-against chance. Prices show: Man Utd [1.01] Chelsea [1.02] Man City [1.03] Arsenal [1.04] Liverpool [1.04] Tottenham [1.09] Everton [1.34] Sunderland [1.63] Aston Villa [1.93] Fulham [2.42] Newcastle [2.88] Stoke [2.92] Bolton [3.3] West Brom [3.6] Blackburn [4.4] Bar [6.6].

We've heard time and time again about how these two can't play together for England but noone doubts their individual performances at club level. But which of the two has been, and will be, most important to their team as...

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FA Cup Betting: Fulham v Tottenham Hotspur

FA Cup / Feizal Rahman / 29 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Former Tottenham favourite Simon Davies should figure against his old side

"Four of the last six meetings at Craven Cottage have seen three goals or more and taking into consideration that this is both a London derby and a cup tie, Over 2.5 Goals can be backed before going In-Play at around [2.0]."

Feizal Rahman foresees goals in this London derby under the floodlights at Craven Cottage

Fulham welcome fellow Londoners Tottenham Hotspur this Sunday for their fourth round FA Cup clash. Few clubs can match Spurs' rich history in this competition and having won in 1921, 1961, 1981 and 1991, the Lilywhites will be looking for similar success in this particular year ending in '1'.

Manager Harry Redknapp will have to do without his star of the season, Gareth Bale, who is out with a back injury while Wilson Palacios is a doubt. However, Benoit Assou-Ekotto, Heurelho Gomes and Roman Pavlyuchenko are expected to return to the squad.

Fulham may start with new addition Steve Sidwell though loan signing Gael Kakuta is cup tied having already appeared for Chelsea in the previous round. Long term absentees Bobby Zamora and Philippe Senderos are still working their way back to full fitness while Mark Schwarzer remains on international duty.

Match Odds - Fulham [3.1], Tottenham [2.5], Draw [3.5]
Fulham have recently improved upon their shoddy pre-Christmas form with four wins in the last seven in all competitions, though they have suffered two away defeats since the turn of the year. At home this season, the Cottagers have been beaten by Premier League opposition on just three occasions - one of which was a 2-1 loss to Spurs back in October - but have won only a third of their 12 games at Craven Cottage.

Spurs, meanwhile, are on a solid run with just one loss in the last 15 domestically and in Europe. Redknapp's side have made a concerted effort this season to strengthen their once feeble away performances but four wins on the road in all competitions, with six losses, still leaves much room for improvement. Yet, victories at Arsenal and Aston Villa in adverse circumstances hinted at what this current team is capable of.

In completing a league double over their opponents this season, Spurs extended Fulham's winless run against them to seven games. Yet, at Craven Cottage, the home side have won six of 14 encounters dating back to 1998, losing just four. However, in cup competition, Spurs have the upper hand winning four of the last five meetings. .

Under/Over 2.5 Goals
Fulham have failed to score in just two home matches this term while Tottenham have been shut out on their travels twice. Yet, having seen the goals fly in during their first half of the season, six of Tottenham's last eight league matches have seen two goals or fewer - a statistic that has been replicated by Fulham. However, four of the last six meetings at Craven Cottage have seen three goals or more and taking into consideration that this is both a London derby and a cup tie, Over 2.5 Goals can be backed before going In-Play at around [2.0].

First Goalscorer
Fulham have taken the lead in seven home games this season. Clint Dempsey has three in his last five and seven in total at the Cottage this season, while Diomansy Kamara netted a hat-trick in the third round win over Peterborough. Each is around [8.0] to be First Goalscorer. Meanwhile, Rafael Van der Vaart has four goals from his last four away appearances and the Dutch midfielder is around [3.0] To Score at any time.

Bookings Odds
Mark Hughes' men are the best behaved team in the Premier League this season and there have been just 13 yellows shown in total in the last 10 games at Craven Cottage. To their credit, Tottenham have received only 5 cautions in their last six away games so it may pay to back 5 pts and Under in the Booking Odds market at around [2.7].

Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.0]
Recommended Bet: 5 pts and Under Bookings Odds @ [2.7]

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