APOEL v Real Madrid: Rookies to crumble against Mourinho's men

Champions League / James Eastham / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Cristiano Ronaldo will be almost impossible to stop in Cyprus

"Real have lost just one of their last 21 Champions League matches (W15-D5-L1), scored 24 times in eight games in this season’s competition, and conceded only three goals in their last eight away games in the tournament. Those formidable stats make the visitors a compelling proposition."

APOEL v Real Madrid, 19:45 GMT, Sky Sports 4, Match Odds: APOEL [14.5], Real Madrid [1.31], The Draw [5.8].

How do you gauge the chances of a side that have no pedigree in a tournament and are the first representatives to make it this far I the competition?

That's the situation bettors are in as Cypriots APOEL prepare to host Real Madrid in the Champions League quarter-final first leg in Nicosia on Tuesday night. The absence of virtually any meaningful historic data on the home side makes this a one-off among the last-eight ties, although stats and facts from their unexpectedly successful run in the competition this season suggests their chances of causing an upset are minimal.

Opta stats reveal APOEL have got this far despite winning only three of eight games in the tournament so far. Those victories came over Zenit (2-1), FC Porto (2-1) and Lyon (1-0), all significantly below the standard of the side they face this week. APOEL knocked out Lyon in the last 16 on penalties after a 1-1 draw over the two legs. The low-scoring nature of that tie was no fluke - APOEL have netted just once in their last four Champions League games.

It's impossible to see how they can stop Real Madrid, [3.6] second favourites behind Barcelona to lift the trophy in Munich on May 19. Real have lost just one of their last 21 Champions League matches (W15-D5-L1), scored 24 times in eight games in this season's competition, and conceded only three goals in their last eight away games in the tournament. Those formidable stats make the visitors a compelling proposition.

The [1.31] on a Real victory will be too short for most bettors, so it's best to look for alternatives. Real-Real on the Half time/Full time market is [1.85], although various goals markets are a better fit with the stats above. Real to win to nil is a tempting [2.0], with Real -1.5 Asian handicap [1.79]. With this bet, you'll make a profit if Real win by two goals or more.

The only market where APOEL are worth supporting is the bookings market. With 125 fouls made and 24 yellow cards earned, they have the worst disciplinary record in this season's competition. When there's liquidity in the market, look to back APOEL to pick up more cards than Real.

Best Bet: Real Madrid to win to nil at [2.0].
Other Recommended Bet: Real Madrid -1.5 Asian handicap @ [1.79].

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Lyon v APOEL: Garde against goals at the Gerland

Champions League / Tobias Gourlay / 13 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Remi Garde is focused on tightening Lyon's defence

"Lyon have failed to win any of their last five Champions League knockout stage matches"

Cyprus has a team in the knockout stages of the Champions League for the first time and Tobias Gourlay believes APOEL can match Lyon

Tuesday 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 4
Lyon [1.51] APOEL [8.4] draw [4.4]

Lyon

This is Lyon's ninth consecutive appearance in the last 16. The reason they are here again is December's 7-1 win over Dinamo Zagreb. The reason why they were almost not here is their failure to score in four of their other five group games.

This weekend's home defeat to Caen, who had not won on the road in Ligue 1 for three months, raises another doubt around the ability of Remi Garde's team to justify their strong favouritism for this match.

APOEL

Strong defence helped APOEL become the first Cypriot team to reach the last 16. They lost only one of their six games and took a point from each of their three away matches.

At the outset of any game, it seems Ivan Jovanovic's initial priority is a clean sheet: sit tight until half-time; identify a weakness in the opponents' defence; and strike in the second half. Forty-four of the team's 58 goals in all competitions this season have come after the half-time break. In this light, the Lyon/draw double-result has some appeal at [21.0].

Match Odds

Lyon have failed to win any of their last five Champions League knockout stage matches. The opposition in those games - Bayern Munich, Bordeaux and Real Madrid - have bigger reputations than APOEL, but [1.5] still looks a little short.

Over/Under Goals

All three group games at the Stade de Gerland stayed Under 2.5 Goals, which is a [1.85] favourite for this match. Six of Lyon's last eight knockout-stage matches here have been similarly low-scoring and so were all three of APOEL's group games.

In the light of that 7-1 result, the market seems to be overly concerned by a heavy Lyon win and [1.85] is a generous offer.

Correct Score

Two of APOEL's three group-stage draws finished 1-1. It's a scoreline that demands consideration ahead of this match, but 0-0 at the longer price of [11.5] offers value too.

Lyon have been shut out in five of their last seven Champions League games, while APOEL scored fewer goals, took fewer shots or earned fewer corners during the group stage than anyone else who made it to the last 16.

Cover both results and, if either of them wins, you will be handsomely rewarded.

Recommended Bets: Lay Lyon @ [1.52]; back 0-0 @ [11.5] & 1-1 @ [9.8] Correct Scores

*Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

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Opta Stats: Lyon v APOEL

Champions League / Michael Lintorn / 13 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Lyon made it this far courtesy of a 7-1 away win against Dinamo Zagreb

The heroes of the group stage have their work cut out prolonging their Champions League adventure away to knockout round veterans Lyon...

This is the first appearance of a Cypriot club in the knockout stage of the Champions League.

APOEL picked up more cards (19 yellows) than any other team who have qualified for the last 16 this season.

The Cypriot champions allowed their opponents more shots on target against them (43) than any of the other teams who made the last 16.

They also had fewer shots than any other side in the group stages of the Champions League this season (38).

Lyon have failed to win any of their last five Champions League knockout stage matches.

APOEL have only once before drawn a French team in European competition (excluding qualifiers) losing home and away to Paris St-Germain in the 1993-94 Cup Winners Cup.

APOEL have only lost one of their last eight Champions League games, but have drawn five of the other seven.

APOEL won their first ever away match in Europe (in 1963), but have lost 25 and drawn nine of the 34 road trips since in all European competitions (excluding qualifiers).

Lyon have failed to score in five of their last seven Champions League matches.

The French side have lost just three of their last 20 Champions League home games, two against Bayern and one versus Real Madrid.

Five of APOEL's six Champions League goals this season have been scored by Brazilians Aílton Almeida (three) and Gustavo Manduca (two).

Bafetimbi Gomis has scored 56% of Lyon's Champions League goals this term (five out of nine), only three players have posted a higher percentage this season.

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