Champions League 
/ Matthew Walton / 06 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Mario Gomez and Bayern Munich have plenty to think about ahead of their second leg against Basel
"But even those backers who expect the ‘European powerhouses’ of Bayern and Inter Milan, just a goal down at the mid-point of the ties, to bounce back and beat Basel and Marseille, should note the facts."
Bayern Munich, Inter Milan, Chelsea and Arsenal were amongst the teams coming out on top at the group stages who have it all to do going into the second legs of the last 16 stages. What clues do the stats give us about how to bet, asks Matthew Walton.
Popular wisdom says teams who win their opening Champions League group are virtually guaranteed a place in the quarter-finals.
After all... winning their initial section ensures an easier R16 tie, against a weaker team, who finished second in their group. There's also the added bonus of travelling away for the first leg and so playing the all important second leg at home.
Makes sense.
How come, therefore, since the current Champions League format was implemented in 2003/04, are we still to see a single season where all eight of these group winning, or seeded, teams have collectively qualified for the last eight.
Last year was a good year... seven of the eight group winners making it through, but previous seasons have been something of a mixed bag (4, 5, 6, 7, 5 and 6) in terms of success.
That's a fairly significant 29% failure rate for these teams - supposedly 'nailed-on' to qualify. And, once again, this season we're not destined to see a clean sweep by the group winners.
Quite remarkably, six table-topping sides (the highest figure since 2003/04) have lost the first leg of their home-away ties... hardly the best way to go about qualification.
Only Barcelona (3-1 winners at Bayer Leverkusen) and Real Madrid (1-1 at CSKA Moscow) escaped a first leg defeat.
Good news for the Spanish duo... not so good for the other half dozen.
Reason being, on the stats, losing the first leg, no matter that its against a so-called weaker team, severely damages a club's chances of progression in the competition.
In fact, the last eight seasons have seen seeded teams lose the first leg on no fewer than 22 occasions... resulting in 14 of them subsequently going out. That's a 64% failure rate.
This figure suggests that three, maybe four, of the six first leg losers are destined to exit the tournament.
And they are... Apoel (0-1 to Lyon), Benfica (2-3 Zenit), Arsenal (0-4 Milan), Chelsea (1-3 Napoli), Inter (0-1 Marseille) and Bayern (0-1 Basel).
Admittedly, each one of these has home advantage for the second leg matches. But that may not prove enough to save some of them.
Prime candidates are the English pair of Chelsea and Arsenal.
Chelsea's first leg conquerors, Napoli, are as short as [1.4] to qualify, whilst the side who demolished Arsenal, Milan, are arguably a big price under the circumstances... at [1.03] http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=104541859&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013.
Both Premier League teams face a huge challenge after comprehensive away defeats.
But even those backers who expect the 'European powerhouses' of Bayern and Inter Milan, just a goal down at the mid-point of the ties, to bounce back and beat Basel and Marseille, should note the facts.
Of the aforementioned 22 teams (away losers in the first leg), their record in the return home fixture only reads W12 D4 L6.
These sides still only win just over half these matches. Matches that they must win to stand any chance of moving forward in the competition.
That would probably explain why Inter trade at a rather big-looking [3.0] to overcome their French opponents, Marseille. That... and some very dodgy form in Serie A.
So whether Bayern, equally troubled at home, are value at [1.51] to see off their Swiss rivals is open to debate.
Given the facts, Basel are actually the call... if you're a real value merchant. Or, if you don't fancy taking on the mighty Munich then consider Zenit St. Petersburg (also winners in the first leg but and odds-against to qualify) who face Benfica. The Russians trade at [2.28] to progress.
And looking beyond the R16, on the basis of these current ties, we could see a very open set of Quarter-Finals. Make no mistake, a couple of 'minnows' look likely to make the last eight.
The draw, as ever, will be crucial but a couple of outright prices, notably for two of the Italian sides, might prove good trading material further down the line... Milan [13.5] and especially Napoli [27.0] being the teams in question.
Should they go through, and the QF/SF pairings go favourably, their odds could shorten appreciably well ahead of the next round... and that could prove another potential source of profit!
Key Statistic
No seeded team which lost the first match, the away leg, in the R16 by two goals or more has ever managed to turn it around in the second leg. Every one has been eliminated. Arsenal and Chelsea both fall into this category this season.
Recommended Bets
Zenit St. Petersburg to qualify [2.28]
Napoli (back to lay) in outright winner market.
James Eastham expects plenty of entertainment in the Portuguese capital on Tuesday night....
Michael Lintorn has examined the Opta stats and picked out four bets for Tuesday's Champions League games, in which he sees neither home side triumphing......
APOEL are going to need to snap out of their Champions League goal drought fairly sharpish if they are to avoid elimination on Wednesday......
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