"City have scored in their last 43 Premier League home games, winning 37 (86%), and it would be a surprise if Liverpool were strong enough to shut them out."
Back Manchester City to beat Liverpool @ 1.910/11
After Liverpool's shock loss to Oldham in the FA Cup they now face a tough double header in the Premier League, starting with tonight's trip to Arsenal. Andrew Atherley assesses their chances...
Brendan Rodgers questioned the mental strength of his young Liverpool players following the FA Cup defeat at Oldham and it is something that may be asked again if they come away empty-handed from this week's away double-header at Arsenal and Manchester City.
The signs are not promising for an immediate pick-me-up. Whether it's in the mind or simply a case of a lack of class, Liverpool's players have had particular difficulty in this type of fixture this season. They have the third-worst record against top-half opponents (based on the table prior to this week's fixtures) with no win out of 11 - only Wigan and Southampton have done worse in terms of points per game, and even then only marginally.
On the road Liverpool have drawn three and lost four against top-half teams, but a more telling statistic is that they have kept only one clean sheet in those seven matches, which backs up the argumenr that there is a lack of resolve in Rodgers' team. It is notable also that only West Brom in the top half have conceded more away goals than Liverpool's 18.
Arsenal, Liverpool's first hosts of the week, have a good chance of exploiting that weakness. While they haven't been as strong at home as usual, Arsene Wenger's team still have a good record when scoring at the Emirates (six wins out of eight in the Premier League) and look a decent win bet at 2.47/5 .
Manchester City are shorter, of course, at 1.910/11 for Sunday's home match against Liverpool but they are no less appealing.
City have scored in their last 43 Premier League home games, winning 37 (86%), and it would be a surprise if Liverpool were strong enough to shut them out.
On the other side of the coin, Liverpool have lost half of the 14 Premier League games in which they have conceded under Rodgers. Although both wins in that scenario came on the road, those were against bottom-half sides Norwich and West Ham and Liverpool have lost three of the last four away league games in which they have conceded.
If the premise is correct that both City and Arsenal will score against Liverpool, goals-related bets are worth considering too.
City have had 67% over 2.5 goals in those last 43 home games in which they have scored, but it is worth noting that both teams have scored in just 42% (a figure that rises only slightly with the quality of opposition).
Both outcomes seem more likely judging by Liverpool's figures. Of the nine away games in which Liverpool have conceded, seven (78%) have had over 2.5 goals and both teams have scored in eight (89%).
Clashes between the Premier League big six have continued to be high-scoring this season - 67% over 2.5 goals with both sides scoring in 84%. Last season both of those figures were 67%, which seems a good indication of where the true average might be at the moment.
Like Manchester City, Arsenal tend to hit higher scores once the opposition's barricades have been breached. Six of the eight home games in which they have scored this season have gone over 2.5 goals (both sides have scored in those same six games).
The odds seem in the backer's favour for Over 2.5 Goals in Arsenal v Liverpool at 1.738/11 and even on Both teams to Score at 1.68/13 .
Both outcomes are similarly priced for Manchester City v Liverpool at 1.748/11 for Over 2.5 Goals and 1.625/8 for Both teams to Score.
Recommended Bets
Back Arsenal to beat Liverpool @ 2.47/5
Back Arsenal v Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.738/11
Back Manchester City to beat Liverpool @ 1.910/11
Back Manchester City v Liverpool Over 2.5 goals @ 1.748/11
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/ Timeform / 23 July 2011 / Leave a Comment 
