Lee Dixon: Struggling sides to share the points at Ewood Park

Premier League / Lee Dixon / 09 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Luis Suarez rues yet another missed chance, the story of Liverpool's season

"I don’t think this will be a goalless draw because I’m not sure either defence is good enough to keep a clean sheet. A Blackburn one is a rare sight indeed at Ewood Park with Opta telling us Steve Kean’s men have kept just one clean sheet in their last 17 Premier League games."

Two teams who have seriously under-achieved this campaign meet on Tueday night and it's hard to pick a winner. The draw is over-priced anyway so it makes sense to think a share of the spoils is on the cards, says Lee Dixon.

A match between two sides who really need a win for very different reasons. Blackburn were extremely poor at the weekend and let indiscipline get the better of them both in terms of poor defending and a late red card. As for Liverpool, by hook or by crook, they need to start winning league matches.

Match Odds

You could almost blindly lay Liverpool for every Premier League match they're involved in. They continue to be under-priced both home and away and the odds on offer about them winning games are based solely on reputation and some of the names in that squad. Ten days ago we took a huge price on Newcastle to beat them and they duly obliged in a game they pretty much dominated throughout.

You can probably see where I'm going with this! I simply can't have Liverpool at [2.16] to win a tricky away game against a side fighting for their lives. Ewood Park is a tough place to go and we saw how much Manchester United struggled to break them down last Monday.

The defending champions needed a moment of brilliance from Antonio Valencia and a late second from Ashley Young to put the game to bed and the way the United players celebrated at the end was a good indication of just how tough it was for them.

A few weeks ago I thought the goals of Yakubu would save Blackburn from the drop but he's been a bit quiet over the last few games and they really need him to start firing. He actually seems to save his best for the bigger games so I wouldn't be too surprised if he does a good job of leading the line against a Liverpool defence who seems a shadow of the stingy one that started the season so well.

I think Blackburn are over-priced at [3.9] but the stats don't lie. Opta tell us Rovers have won just two of the last 26 Premier League games against Liverpool so they obviously struggle for some reason against them. But having watched how dogged they were against Manchester United and having said Liverpol were far too short, that means there's definitely value in the draw price at [3.6]

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

I don't think this will be a goalless draw because I'm not sure either defence is good enough to keep a clean sheet. A Blackburn one is a rare sight indeed at Ewood Park with Opta telling us Steve Kean's men have kept just one clean sheet in their last 17 Premier League games.

But neither side is exactly prolific either and in Liverpool's case a clue for that may be in the fact they keep hitting the frame of the goal rather the goal itself. As Opta reveal: the Reds have hit the woodwork 28 times this season. If all their woodwork strikes (and the oppositions') had gone in, they'd be 13 points better off. Other reasons include the fact that no-one has made a good fist of giving Luis Suarez good support and the fact the service to the Uruguyan has often been poor.

1-1 would be my idea of a scoreline but under [2.5] goals is probably the best way to play this.

Bookings Odds

Don't underestimate the importance of such things as the time when a match is played. Night matches can often create a more electric atmosphere, certainly more so than those 12:45 kick-offs we see these days because of TV scheduling. A night game is also more likely to have dew on the grass and that leads to the ball zipping around nicely but also the odd mist-timed tackle.

It's the teams who are playing poorly who often get players booked and let's face it, not many sides in the division are struggling as much as these two.

Frustration boils over because you're not executing game-plans or individuals aren't doing things with the ball that they know they're capable of in training.

This match has the makings of a fiery contest and we should get at least five bookings so nine points and above at around [2.6] appeals.

2pts Back the draw @ [3.6]
2 pts Back under 2.5 goals @ [2.04]
1 pt Back nine points and above in the bookings odds market @ [2.6]

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Manchester United are overbet and under-priced at Ewood Park

Premier League / Soccer Widow / 01 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Antonio Valencia has been excellent since returning from injury but he and United will have their work cut out on Monday night

"The reason for this difference is probably because half the world is betting on the favourite to come good, and United’s win odds are once again way below their true value. In this game, the value bettor can decide whether to lay Manchester or to back the draw, with relatively small stakes and therefore not much risk."

The cold-hearted stats of Soccer Widow have spoken and the value lies with laying Manchester United or better still, backing the draw. Read on to find out why...

Monday night sees another huge game in the title race for Manchester United, whilst Blackburn Rovers try to distance themselves from the other relegation candidates. With Wigan, QPR and Bolton all winning on Saturday this relegation dogfight looks set to go to the wire.

Rovers and United have been local rivals since the nineteenth century, first playing each other competitively in 1892. 120 years on, and Blackburn are hoping these local derby meetings continue for some time to come as they cling on desperately to their Premier League status.

Although United have been at the pinnacle of English football for 20-years, Blackburn have of course also won a title during this period and always prove difficult opponents for the Red Devils. With Wayne Rooney dropped for a social transgression before the last encounter between these teams, it is absolutely certain that barring a late injury, he will face Blackburn this time.

Rovers took advantage of his unexpected but welcome absence from United's line-up plus a make-shift back-four containing Michael Carrick and Antonio Valencia during a well-documented injury crisis, all of which contributed to Rover's celebrated 2-3 victory at Old Trafford on New Year's Eve. Indeed, in 12 head-to-head matches at Ewood Park since 1999 in all competitions, United have only mustered two victories.

United's away form continues to be impressive with 11 wins from 15 matches played, which is more than double Blackburn's home wins for the season to date (just five victories). Despite this disparity it is certain that a full-house of over 31,000 fans will be at the game, most of them hoping that Blackburn can pull off another upset. With Wolves' apparent demise on Saturday, Blackburn's chances of staying up have improved from 40 to 50% even before a ball is kicked against United. That said, one relegation spot now looks filled, leaving the teams in 16th to 19th place dancing around four musical chairs, half of them strategically placed over ever-loosening trap-doors...

Salient statistics for the betting recommendations...

Head-To-Head (Blackburn Rovers home, Manchester United away: 12 matches since 1999, all competitions):

•Blackburn three wins (25%), seven draws (58.3%), United two wins (16.7%)
•Last six (most recent first): D-D-A-D-A-H
•United clean sheets: four (33.3%)
•Under 3.5 goals: 10 times in last 12 meetings (83.33%)

Blackburn Rover's last 25 Premier League home games:

•Eight wins (32%); five draws (20%), 12 defeats (48%)
•Last six (most recent first): W-D-W-L-W-L
•Opposition clean sheets: eight (32%)
•Under 3.5 goals: 18 times in last 25 home games (72%)

Manchester United's last 25 Premier League away games:
•14 wins (56%); six draws (24%); Five defeats (20%)
•Last six (most recent first): W-W-W-D-W-L
•Clean sheets: 10 (40%)
•Under 3.5 goals: 16 times in last 25 away games (64%)

Summary:

As mentioned, Blackburn are always a hard nut to crack for United and from 12 recent head-to-head encounters, seven finished in draws (58.3%). Soccer Widow calculates a mathematical probability for the draw in this game at 40.2%, whilst the market is offering odds corresponding to an 18.9% chance.

The reason for this difference is probably because half the world is betting on the favourite to come good, and United's win odds are once again way below their true value. In this game, the value bettor can decide whether to lay Manchester or to back the draw, with relatively small stakes and therefore not much risk. Soccer Widow has decided to back the draw to balance her portfolio of bets in this probability cluster group.
In the head-to-head matches we've looked at, there were only four in which Blackburn did not manage to score at least one goal and the calculated probability from the recent data makes a United clean sheet just a 25% chance.

As ever, Soccer Widow's predictions are made with just a cold-hearted computer spreadsheet, and gut-feeling never enters the equation. The New Year's Eve recommendation of backing Blackburn at odds of [32.0] was based purely on statistics and mathematics.

Value Betting Recommendations:

•Back "Draw at full-time" (odds [5.3], 'true' odds [2.5], value 112.9%, probability: 40.2%)

•Back "Manchester United clean sheet: No" (odds [1.74], 'true' odds 1.53, value 120%, probability: 75.3%)

•Back "Under 3.5 goals" (odds [1.58], 'true' odds 1.32, value 20%, probability: 75.7%)

As ever, good luck with your wagers and never bet more than you can afford to lose

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Premier League Previews: Goals at Ewood Park

Premier League / Feizal Rahman / 04 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Five in six. Nicolas Anelka has a fine scoring record against Blackburn.

"Opta highlight that Chelsea have now gone nine league games without a clean sheet and they were defensively inept against Arsenal last weekend."

Chelsea's trip to Blackburn should see plenty of net-bulging. Armed with betting expertise, Opta stats and sound insight, Feizal Rahman talks us through the pick of the wagers in two more of Saturday's non-televised matches.

Arsenal v West Bromwich Albion, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Arsenal [1.44], West Brom [9.0], The Draw [4.9]

On the back of five wins from seven in the league, Arsenal have gone from crisis to (Champions League places at least) contenders after their harrowing start to the campaign. At the Emirates, the Gunners have won seven games on the spin in all competitions, though only five of their last 10 in the league.

Having begun the season in dreadful fashion with four defeats from their first five, West Brom went on to steady the ship with just one loss in their next five. Surprisingly, Roy Hodgson's men have had a better record on the road this term with seven away points gained compared to only four at home.

Prior to a shock 3-2 win at the Emirates last season, West Brom could manage only a solitary point from four Premier League visits to Arsenal, conceding a total of 10 goals. However, Opta point out that the Baggies have failed to score themselves just once in this time.

Seven of the last 10 encounters between the sides, home or away, have resulted in at least three goals being scored - the last three fixtures producing a minimum of four. Opta also tell us there have been four goals scored in the opening 10 minutes of the last four league meetings.

Given Arsenal's continuing defensive frailties - just three clean sheets this season - Both Teams To Score looks a sound bet at [1.82], as is Over 3.5 Goals at around [2.7]. Backing the First Goal to be scored between 0-10 Minutes may also have some appeal at [3.8].

Aston Villa v Norwich City, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Aston Villa [1.91], Norwich [4.8], The Draw [3.7]

Despite only two league wins to their name this season, five draws from 10 games have allowed Aston Villa to remain in the top half of the table. At home, the trend continues with the Villans winning a total of six from 14 in 2011, drawing five and losing three.

Visitors Norwich currently sit a place and a point ahead of their hosts in the standings, belying their newly promoted status. Away from Carrow Road, Paul Lambert's squad have put in a handful of plucky performances and have averaged a point per game on their travels.

Opta reveal that at Villa Park, the two sides have one Premier League victory each with two draws - Villa winning the last encounter 3-0 back in 2005. Yet, this was the only the third time in the last eight meetings that the sides produced in excess of two goals.

While Villa have failed to find the net in just two of their previous 13 home league games, Norwich have also scored in all but two fixtures this term. Yet, with only two of the last 10 league games at Villa Park seeing in three strikes or greater, Under 2.5 Goals seems generous at [2.0].

As Opta inform us that Aston Villa have lost more points from winning positions than any other team in the Premier League this season, Aston Villa/Draw in the HT/FT market could pay dividends at [17.5], with a 1-1 Correct Score on offer at [7.6].

Blackburn Rovers v Chelsea, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Blackburn [7.6], Chelsea [1.52], The Draw [4.6]

With only two points from their last five league games, Blackburn continue to languish in the relegation zone. A 4-3 win at home to Arsenal remains Rovers' solitary victory this season, otherwise crashing to four defeats at Ewood Park, with nine conceded and just two in response.

Chelsea, meanwhile, are suffering a mini-slump of their own with two straight league defeats and just two wins from five on the road this term. Captain John Terry is under heavy scrutiny both on and off the pitch and the experience of manager Andre Villas Boas has also been called into question.

Blackburn have picked up a meagre two points in their last ten meetings with Chelsea, home or away, failing to score in eight of those contests. At Ewood Park, Blackburn have lost eight of the last eleven contests and have been unable to find the net on five occasions.

Yet, Opta highlight that Chelsea have now gone nine league games without a clean sheet and they were defensively inept against Arsenal last weekend. Back a 1-2 and 1-3 Correct Score at [9.0] and [13.5] respectively, while Both Teams to Score trades at [1.73]. Over 3.5 Goals at [2.58] may tempt.

Opta note that Nicolas Anelka - [8.0] to be First Goalscorer - has hit five past Blackburn in six appearances for Chelsea. Branislav Ivanovic, meanwhile, scored in both meetings between the two sides last season and the Serbian should be around [9.0] To Score at any time.

Recommended Bets:

Arsenal v West Brom - Both Teams To Score @ [1.82]
Aston Villa v Norwich - Under 2.5 Goals @ [2.0]
Blackburn v Chelsea - Over 3.5 Goals @ [2.58]

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