West Brom v Manchester United: It's lay-day payday when United and Rooney are in town

"The older Rooney gets the deeper he drops and with it goes his potency of finding the net. His performance in midweek for England was mediocre - not for the first time, it must be said – and the stats show he’s scored just two goals in his 13 games in all competitions."

Lay Wayne Rooney to score at any time @ 2.3211/8

David Moyes' Manchester United head to West Brom on Saturday afternoon with their season all-but over. With no motivation to get a result, Lewis Jones predicts another Red Devils slip-up and has some strong views on Wayne Rooney.....

West Brom v Manchester United
Saturday March 8th, 12:45
Live on BT Sport 1

West Brom

It's fair to say that Pepe Mel's tenure has yet to really take off. Six games into life at the Baggies and the new boss has yet to taste victory in the hot-seat and has taken West Brom's draw tally to a staggering 13.

Three of those were very creditable results, against Chelsea, Everton and Liverpool, but it's the fact they've only taken one point from relegation six-pointers against Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Fulham that will be more worrying for people involved with the club.

What hasn't helped Mel is the way other clubs, who were in much bigger trouble than the Baggies, have responded to managerial changes.

Tony Pulis has revitalised Palace and they now sit three points above the dreaded drop zone while Sunderland are also now a much tougher proposition under Gus Poyet, who led them to Wembley last week.

Scoring goals has been the main problem at home for West Brom. They've scored just 16 all season and it's a good job a backline, led by Gareth McCauley, has stood strong at the other end, conceding just 16 in 14 games.

Usually a visit from Manchester United would be the last thing they need, but considering their record against the big boys and United's inconsistency, the squad may see this as a decent opportunity to start rediscovering that winning feeling.

Manchester United

If United don't turnaround their 2-0 deficit to Olympiakos in the Champions League, then it's fair to say that their season will be over before the middle of March. It's been one to forget for David Moyes.

They currently sit seventh in the Premier League and are 12 points behind Manchester City, who are in fourth and occupy the final Champions League place. It's hard to believe this is the same side that ran away with the Premier League title last season under Sir Alex Ferguson.

This fixture ended 5-5 last season in the highest scoring draw in Premier League history and was also Ferguson's final game in charge as United boss.

Results have been more prosperous away from home rather than at Old Trafford, but not by much. In their last away day, goals from Wayne Rooney and Robin van Persie saw off Crystal Palace but to say it was convincing would be farfetched.

Match Odds

The Baggies have drawn 1-1 at home to three of the top four this season and only narrowly went down 2-3 to Man City, which does bode well for punters, like myself, who continue to take on Manchester United at every opportunity possible.

Despite their poor form, the defensive tactics and the lack of confidence, the market for a Manchester United game still is heavily skewed, wrongly, in their favour.

To my delight, United are trading at a ridiculously short 1.845/6 for this clash against the limited but hard to beat Baggies.

Teams can now get results against the Red Devils by out-working and out-battling them - as proved by Olympiakos - and West Brom certainly have enough midfield energy through Yousef Mulumbu and James Morrison to get about United in the same way that the Greeks did.

The hosts do look about the right price at 5.14/1 considering their woeful record of winning just four games in the Premier League all season but the draw at 3.7511/4 certainly has some scope as does laying United outright at short odds with one eye on trading out of the bet in-running.

If pushed, I'd rather lay United than back the draw.

Anytime Goalscorer

Rooney has scored six goals in his last five Premier League starts against West Brom but those thinking of backing him to notch first should think again and strike a lay.

The England forward, despite signing a new improved five-year-deal at United, has looked a shadow of his former self this season. The older he gets the deeper he drops and with it goes his potency of finding the net.

His performance in midweek for England was mediocre - not for the first time, it must be said - and the stats show he's scored just two goals in his 13 games in all competitions.

With that in mind, I was quite surprised to see him trading so short at 2.35/4 to score at any time against the Midlands side, who, as I've already mentioned, have a solid make-up defensively at home.

The beauty of Betfair is that we can act as a bookmaker in these incidences and lay that price for all it's worth.

It's also bound to trade shorter nearer kick-off as the United followers pile on Rooney.

Recommended Bets

Lay Manchester United @ 1.845/6
Lay Wayne Rooney to score at any time @ 2.3211/8

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Opta Big Match Stats: Rooney to fire Man United to win

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Lee Dixon: Rooney to kick Wolves while they're down

Premier League / Lee Dixon / 17 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

The hero Rooney and the unsung hero Carrick

"We could try to make a case for Wolves getting something from this game but we won’t."

Wolves are a side in a slump and Manchester United very much a team on the up. Sometimes the obvious outcome leads to obvious bets and that's probably the case here, says Lee Dixon.

If Manchester United win the Premier League his season - and they're now clear favourites to at 1.64 - then expect to hear plenty of "typical United to win without playing that well", "it was City's to lose and they did" and other such comments. But that of course is just the point. Maybe over the past few seasons Fergie's men have indeed benefited from other contenders imploding and have won matches from almost impossible positions. But if others have lost their heads, it's credit to United that they've kept theirs and managed to win ugly when they've needed to. Isn't that what being a champion is all about?

Match Odds

There are so many stories involving United players this campaign. Wayne Rooney is on track to have his most prolific season ever, Paul Scholes came out of retirement to save the day, Ryan Giggs told Father Time just what he thought of him once again, David de Gea went from laughing stock to the one who laughed both last and longest.

But let's not forget the unsung heroes. Jonny Evans has had a great season after losing his senior partner Nemanja Vidic and, that Manchester City game aside, has looked confident and composed. Michael Carrick has also been very reliable without ever doing anything too spectacular but that's just his way. Both will be key players from now until the end of the season.

We could try to make a case for Wolves getting something from this game but we won't. Opta tell us they have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games (W1 D5 L8), a run which started with a 1-4 defeat to Manchester United. Just as the hosts appear to be going through a real slump, so United seem to be at their very best at the moment. Not only do I think United will win, I think they'll so comfortably. 3-0 is my idea of the sort of scoreline we'll get here.

Manchester United clean sheet?

I've tipped 3-0 as a final score but it could easily be 2-0 or 4-0. Either way, I don't fancy Wolves to score here simply because they're not playing well enough against a team who is confident at the back and defending as a unit. A United clean sheet looks good value at [2.2].

First Goalscorer

No prizes for originality but Wayne Rooney is going through one of those runs where every time he takes a shot, it seems to go in. Only Robin van Persie looks hotter than him at the moment in this league and Rooney will be eyeing up the chance to finish as the Premier League's top scorer http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=102873735&ex=1&origin=MRL with the easier run-in. Opta tell us he's scored seven goals in his last four Premier League matches and it's worth backing him to get the opener here.

2 pts Back Manchester United to win @ [1.35]
1 pt Back Manchester United to win 3-0 @ [12.0]
2 pts Back a Manchester United clean sheet @ [2.2]
2 pts Back Wayne Rooney to be first goalscorer @ [4.5]

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Lee Dixon: Bent, Rooney and the maverick

Premier League / Lee Dixon / 05 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Lee Dixon has given Darren Bent the thumbs-up in the top goalscorer market

"Bent is one of those players who on occasions, you won’t really notice for virtually the whole match but then somehow manages to grab a brace out of nowhere and walks off with the plaudits. And I like the sort of goals he scores."

The ever-popular Premier League top goalscorer is wide open this year but Lee Dixon likes the look of Wayne Rooney, Darren Bent and the man they're all still talking about.

Wayne Rooney

As discussed in my preview of the Premier League winner market that I'm in the Manchester United camp. Central to so much of what they do is that man Wayne Rooney. He had a tough first half of the season last time out with a slight loss of form, injuries and issues over a new contract. But he overcame all three, finishing the campaign in style and I'm expecting a big season from the United number 10 this time round. He creates goals, he scores goals, makes the team tick and I think he'll enjoy playing alongside Ashley Young. Rooney will get plenty of minutes on the pitch because, as other players in the squad are rotated for one reason or another, he seems to be the one player Sir Alex doesn't like to be without; he could also be on penalty duty again. I don't think Rooney will go out and score 30 goals this season but he could get 23-25 and that could end up being enough.

Darren Bent

My strongest selection. He's a player who has been at different clubs, under different managers and played in different systems. But one thing remains constant wherever he goes: he always scores goals. Sunderland never really recovered from losing him in January last year and though he wasn't quite as prolific as some would have expected when he first moved to Villa, he did still score a few. With half a season at Villa Park under his belt and having done pre-season with the squad he'll feel far more at ease this year. Bent is one of those players who on occasions, you won't really notice for virtually the whole match but then somehow manages to grab a brace out of nowhere and walks off with the plaudits. And I like the sort of goals he scores. He sniffs out chances, takes gambles, makes clever runs and is always searching for that one opening that will hand him the opportunity to do what he does best.

Carlos Tevez

A slightly odd choice I know, but hear me out. Tevez has said he wants to leave City on numerous occasions and a deal to his old club Corinthians looked be on the cards a few weeks ago before falling through. A solution that is satisfactory to the player, City and his future club may yet be found before the transfer window closes but what if that doesn't happen? Haven't we been here before with Tevez looking like he's played his last game for the club? He's such a volatile character that it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he just turned around and said he wanted to stay after all. If that were to happen we'd be exactly where we were this time last year. He'd probably remain the team captain and very much the main man, the talisman of the side. And if that were to happen, you wouldn't be seeing much of the [42.0] currently on offer about the Argentinian finishing as top scorer. He'd go off as one of the favourites. You're taking a leap of faith here but at the current price it's worth having a dabble. If he stays you can lay him off at a shorter price before a ball is kicked in anger or after he's scored a few and just before the January transfer window opens. Just in case he changes his mind once again...

Recommended bets:

3 pts Back Wayne Rooney @ [9.4]
4pts Back Darren Bent @ [14.5]
1pt Back-to-lay Carlos Tevez @ [42.0]

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FA Cup Betting: Tevez more sorely missed than Rooney

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 13 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

They're the stars of their respective teams but City miss Tevez more than United miss Rooney

"Most telling, perhaps, is the importance of the goals scored by Rooney and Tevez. Even with Rooney struggling for goals since injuring his ankle against Bayern Munich last spring – he has scored in just 12 of his 32 appearances in major club competitions since then – United have kept on winning and progressing on all fronts."

The stats suggest the likely loss of Carlos Tevez will hurt Manchester City far more than the certain absence of Wayne Rooney for United. In the other semi, side with the team with the better away record, says Andrew Atherley.

Manchester United won't miss the suspended Wayne Rooney in Saturday's FA Cup semi-final anywhere near as much as Manchester City will miss Carlos Tevez, if he fails to recover from his hamstring injury. That's what the stats say about the influence of the two key strikers.

United completed a routine 2-0 home win over Fulham last weekend, as Rooney sat out the first match of his suspension, and it was entirely in keeping with their form profile when Rooney is not in the starting 11. Since the start of last season, when Rooney assumed the role of United's main man following the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo, United have averaged 2.25 points per game when he has started. But they have averaged a healthy 2.05 when he hasn't been in the starting line-up, losing only one out of 18.

Contrast that with Carlos Tevez's influence on City's results, especially since Roberto Mancini took over as manager. In that period City have averaged 1.85 points per game when Tevez has started but a significantly lower 1.29 when he hasn't been in the starting line-up.

Most telling, perhaps, is the importance of the goals scored by Rooney and Tevez. Even with Rooney struggling for goals since injuring his ankle against Bayern Munich last spring - he has scored in just 12 of his 32 appearances in major club competitions since then - United have kept on winning and progressing on all fronts.

City, meanwhile, have become too reliant on Tevez. One measure of his influence on their results is that only six of Mancini's 27 Premier League wins have been achieved without Tevez being on the scoresheet. City's replacement strikers, Mario Balotelli and Edin Dzeko, just haven't looked capable of stepping into Tevez's boots, whereas United can call on Javier Hernandez and Dimitar Berbatov in Rooney's absence.

All in all, it's advantage United if Tevez doesn't play.

Discontent has been rumbling about the forced march south for this weekend's FA Cup semi-finalists and, while the long trek to Wembley is a logistical and cost issue for fans, there may be a footballing disadvantage too for Manchester City and Stoke City.
In big matches played on neutral territory, it is often worth checking which team is more effective away from their home ground. The significance in this instance is that of the past 20 FA Cup semi-finals played between teams from the Premier League, 15 have gone to the team with the best away record (and 13 of those won within 90 minutes).

With Manchester United ranked third to City's fifth in the Premier League away form table and Bolton 16th to Stoke's 19th, the two favourites have the edge on that factor.
City's problems on the road are clear from their current winless run of 10 away games in all competitions, culminating in Monday night's 3-0 defeat at Liverpool, and they failed to get the job done in their two away ties in the FA Cup (drawing at Leicester and Notts County before winning the replays at home).

Stoke, meanwhile, have been perennial strugglers on the road since joining the Premier League, with nine wins and 32 defeats in 54 away games. The problem may well be that they can set up the Britannia stadium to exploit weapons such as Rory Delap's long throw but are in no position to influence matters elsewhere.

Stoke's fanatical fans offer the best chance of recreating the Britannia at Wembley. But Bolton have shown the capability to perform well in the FA Cup away from home, winning in the last three rounds at fellow Premier League sides Wigan, Fulham and Birmingham.

Recommended bets

Manchester United to beat Manchester City at [2.28]
Bolton to beat Stoke at [2.54]

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