Premier League 
/ Andrew Atherley / 13 April 2011 / Leave a Comment 
They're the stars of their respective teams but City miss Tevez more than United miss Rooney
"Most telling, perhaps, is the importance of the goals scored by Rooney and Tevez. Even with Rooney struggling for goals since injuring his ankle against Bayern Munich last spring – he has scored in just 12 of his 32 appearances in major club competitions since then – United have kept on winning and progressing on all fronts."
The stats suggest the likely loss of Carlos Tevez will hurt Manchester City far more than the certain absence of Wayne Rooney for United. In the other semi, side with the team with the better away record, says Andrew Atherley.
Manchester United won't miss the suspended Wayne Rooney in Saturday's FA Cup semi-final anywhere near as much as Manchester City will miss Carlos Tevez, if he fails to recover from his hamstring injury. That's what the stats say about the influence of the two key strikers.
United completed a routine 2-0 home win over Fulham last weekend, as Rooney sat out the first match of his suspension, and it was entirely in keeping with their form profile when Rooney is not in the starting 11. Since the start of last season, when Rooney assumed the role of United's main man following the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo, United have averaged 2.25 points per game when he has started. But they have averaged a healthy 2.05 when he hasn't been in the starting line-up, losing only one out of 18.
Contrast that with Carlos Tevez's influence on City's results, especially since Roberto Mancini took over as manager. In that period City have averaged 1.85 points per game when Tevez has started but a significantly lower 1.29 when he hasn't been in the starting line-up.
Most telling, perhaps, is the importance of the goals scored by Rooney and Tevez. Even with Rooney struggling for goals since injuring his ankle against Bayern Munich last spring - he has scored in just 12 of his 32 appearances in major club competitions since then - United have kept on winning and progressing on all fronts.
City, meanwhile, have become too reliant on Tevez. One measure of his influence on their results is that only six of Mancini's 27 Premier League wins have been achieved without Tevez being on the scoresheet. City's replacement strikers, Mario Balotelli and Edin Dzeko, just haven't looked capable of stepping into Tevez's boots, whereas United can call on Javier Hernandez and Dimitar Berbatov in Rooney's absence.
All in all, it's advantage United if Tevez doesn't play.
Discontent has been rumbling about the forced march south for this weekend's FA Cup semi-finalists and, while the long trek to Wembley is a logistical and cost issue for fans, there may be a footballing disadvantage too for Manchester City and Stoke City.
In big matches played on neutral territory, it is often worth checking which team is more effective away from their home ground. The significance in this instance is that of the past 20 FA Cup semi-finals played between teams from the Premier League, 15 have gone to the team with the best away record (and 13 of those won within 90 minutes).
With Manchester United ranked third to City's fifth in the Premier League away form table and Bolton 16th to Stoke's 19th, the two favourites have the edge on that factor.
City's problems on the road are clear from their current winless run of 10 away games in all competitions, culminating in Monday night's 3-0 defeat at Liverpool, and they failed to get the job done in their two away ties in the FA Cup (drawing at Leicester and Notts County before winning the replays at home).
Stoke, meanwhile, have been perennial strugglers on the road since joining the Premier League, with nine wins and 32 defeats in 54 away games. The problem may well be that they can set up the Britannia stadium to exploit weapons such as Rory Delap's long throw but are in no position to influence matters elsewhere.
Stoke's fanatical fans offer the best chance of recreating the Britannia at Wembley. But Bolton have shown the capability to perform well in the FA Cup away from home, winning in the last three rounds at fellow Premier League sides Wigan, Fulham and Birmingham.
Recommended bets
Manchester United to beat Manchester City at [2.28]
Bolton to beat Stoke at [2.54]
Jens Lehmann is back at Arsenal and is already bringing down strikers in his own area, as if the last three years never happened. Dan 'The Betting Man' Fitch looks at Lehmann's return and other comeback kings....
Fourth plays sixth on Monday night and Liverpool will be out for revenge after a 3-0 defeat in Manchester early onin the campaign. But will they get it, asks Feizal Rahman....
The list of nominees is out and Gareth Bale looks the good thing to win it but a few players have been unfairly forgotten whilst others who did make the list may not even be voted player of the year...
No comments:
Post a Comment