Premier League 
/ Ralph Ellis / 02 May 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Leighton Baines' penalty against his old club Wigan denied the hosts a fanrastic chance of picking up a rare win
"It’s not just we punters who lay store by trends and numbers. I’ve been in many manager’s offices where there is a graph on the wall, plotting how their season can reach a particular points total they consider will guarantee them promotion or a play-off place. What happens when the line that shows points achieved goes above the one that shows the target, but it still doesn’t actually reap the reward?"
It's been a strange old season and whoever wins the title will have done so without setting the league alight if their final points tally is anything to go by. But then again, the stats affecting all teams have got us all in a right spin, says Ralph Ellis.
Statistically, nobody will win the Barclays Premier League this season. Not a single team will get relegated either.
Aaron Ramsey's carefully slotted winning goal for Arsenal against Manchester United wasn't only a blow for Sir Alex Ferguson. It was a bit of a kick in the wotsits for mathematicians too, especially those who rely on numbers, facts and figures to plot their betting.
Everybody saw that the defeat opened up the title race.Chelsea had beaten Spurs 2-1 thanks to two awful refereeing decisions the day before. Now three points behind on the same goal difference, a win at Old Trafford next Sunday afternoon will take them back to the top of the table. But Arsenal's win also meant that United cannot get more than 82 points by the time they kick the last ball on May 22nd. It's ten years since a smaller total took top spot. In fact in the last six seasons, it wouldn't even get you into second place. On that basis you can confidently lay them for the title right now at [1.29], because the stats show that simply isn't enough to win the Premier League.
Feeling brave enough to do it? No, me neither. Because this is the season that has defied all the statistical trends on which we were beginning to base our targets.
It's not just we punters who lay store by trends and numbers. I've been in many manager's offices where there is a graph on the wall, plotting how their season can reach a particular points total they consider will guarantee them promotion or a play-off place. What happens when the line that shows points achieved goes above the one that shows the target, but it still doesn't actually reap the reward?
I spent all last week wondering whether to pick up the £100 that was available if you wanted to lay Birmingham for relegation. At last week's price of [16.0] it would have meant putting all my 'available to bet' balance at stake, but statistically it looked safe as houses. Only twice in the last 12 years has anybody gone down with more than 36 points, and Alex McLeish's side already had 38.
They have 39 now after a scrappy 1-1 draw with Wolves, clinging on for a point with ten men after Craig Gardner got himself sent off. I chickened out last week and I'm still not confident enough to collect the £27 that at this moment is waiting if you want to lay them for relegation at [17.5].
More stats: 35 points would have kept you up in five of the last seven seasons. So Blackpool, having battled for a 0-0 draw against Stoke, ought mathematically to be odds against of about [2.5] to be relegated, yet instead they are [1.29]. Even West Ham, still bottom after a miserable first 20 minutes and a 2-1 defeat at Manchester City, can still get to 35 points. I suspect if they do, they will go down regardless.
Next week Hammers play Blackburn, who chipped out a 1-0 win over local rivals Bolton, and moved on to 38 points. They will feel more safe and look the safest lay at [5.4] to be relegated. But I'm sure somebody at Upton Park will remind them that Sheffield United went down with 38 in 2007 when Carlos Tevez scored that winner at Old Trafford on the final day, and that Hammers themselves got relegated on 42 points in 2003.
Roberto Martinez said last week that none of the sides near the bottom deserved to be relegated, and that was his point (or 35 of them, as the case may be). Wigan backed up his argument by moving to 35 points with a 1-1 draw at home to Everton, and should have won but for conceding a silly penalty which their former player Leighton Baines slotted away.
Even for the teams in mid-table safety you can't rely on much this season. Of the £35,000 that's been matched on Sunderland finishing in the top half of the table, most of it has been at odds of anywhere between [3.0] and [1.15]. A miserable 3-0 defeat at home to Fulham pushed the current lay out to [19.5]. Roy Hodgson's West Brom, whose ten men took their recent tally to 16 points from nine games with a late winner against Aston Villa, are now the best value to do it at [3.25].
The uncertainty of the whole season is underlined by Betfair's market. Four teams are very short odds on to go down, yet only three of them can do.There's clearly an opportunity. Just don't rely on the stats to tell you where!
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