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Victoria Cup: Lightning set to strike at Ascot

"The fact that Lightning Cloud has had a run this time, as opposed to 12 months ago, could be key as that Thirsk outing ought to have sharpened him up both physically and mentally..."

Timeform's Matt Gardner looks ahead to this weekend's Victoria Cup, which takes place over seven furlongs at Ascot on Saturday...

The Victoria Cup is one of THE competitive handicaps of the Flat season. Often, even on a mundane day of racing, a race will be referred to as being competitive but affairs such as the Victoria Cup, the Wokingham, the Stewards Cup and the Royal Hunt Cup take the ferocity of competition to a whole new level. Little betters the sight of 28 horses taking flight down the track, sometimes as one mass and others as several scattered battalions, in hope of becoming the latest "Saturday horse", the one that connections have managed to keep just ahead of its mark in the hope of landing one of these valuable prizes. 

Levitate (Lincoln), Haaf A Sixpence (Spring Cup) and Norse Blues (Thirsk Hunt Cup) have tasted success in the three cavalry charges that have taken place so far this term, with just one of them seeking to add this contest to their role of honour. 

Haaf A Sixpence had something of a tune up for his tilt at Newbury's Spring Cup when finishing third in the Spring Mile at Doncaster (had he landed that race I would have accredited him with an additional half a point in terms of big handicaps won this season, it's only a consolation race after all), and he went on to produce his best effort yet in beating Guest Of Honour by a length. He remains relative novices in terms of races run having taken to the track on just nine occasions and what is noticeable from a quick glance at his record is his strike-rate, with him landing the spoils four times. The handicapper has hit him with a rise of 5 lb, taking his BHA mark to 90, which might just be enough to seem him make the cut and seems unlikely to prevent him putting up a bold show. Ante-post word of warning: Haaf A Sixpence is also entered at Chester on Friday.  

The aforementioned Guest Of Honour is certainly worthy of revisiting as the panache with which he travelled through the Spring Cup suggested that he could well have one of these handicaps in his locker. The four-year-old has done nothing but improve throughout his seven-race career, taking his form to a new level in first-time cheekpieces and on just his second race on turf as he chased home Haaf A Sixpence, but what most caught the eye was how stylishly he went about his business, adding weight to the impression that he is yet to reach his limit. Ante-post word of warning number two: Guest Of Honour is entered in the same race at Chester. 

The next on our hit list quite simply has to be the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Enrol, a lightly-raced four-year-old filly who is closely related to the useful sprinter Enact. Enrol took a couple of outings to get her act together but, having landed a Lingfield maiden, she has demonstrated no signs of looking back in two starts since, scoring impressively at both Wolverhampton and Doncaster. Enrol has also been raised to a mark of 90, some 8 lb higher than for her most recent success, but with the Stoute yard firing on all cylinders at present and the suspicion being that Enrol will prove herself at an even higher level at some stage, she has to be firmly on any punters' radar. Ante-post word of warning number three: there isn't one really, although she does need a few to come out in order to gain a place in the field.

David O'Meara is rapidly making a name for himself in the training ranks, particularly with horses he acquires from other yards and abroad, and Two For Two has the hallmarks of being yet another excellent addition to his stable. The five-year-old, formerly trained in France by Nicolas Clement, finished second on debut for O'Meara after six months off the track but he has improved upon that form since, readily landing a good-quality handicap at Ripon last month. He was fancied to supplement that success with further glory in the Thirsk Hunt Cup but could only finish second, although things hardly went his way as, having been drawn wide, he was hampered before halfway which cost him vital ground before he stayed on in eye-catching fashion. This race comes fairly soon on the back of that but if that proves not to be a stumbling block he looks certain to be in the firing line. 

A final one to mention in detail is Lightening Cloud, who has previous in this race having finished fifth 12 months ago. The five-year-old progressed right through 2011, hitting the mark on five occasions, and he kicked off in 2012 with the anticipation that yet more success would be forthcoming. His effort in this race was a good one, leading his group in the centre of the track but never able to get on terms with those who raced on the far-side, and he was sent off favourite for the Wokingham on his next outing. He was below form there, and on his next couple of starts, but he bounced back on his final outing of last year and displayed plenty of encouragement on his reappearance at Thirsk last month. 

The fact that Lightning Cloud has had a run this time, as opposed to 12 months ago, could be key as that Thirsk outing ought to have sharpened him up both physically and mentally. The impression is that he is capable of scoring off a mark of 95, the same mark he contested this race off last year, and at the current prices he make plenty of appeal. 

It is possible to make a case for far too many to mention them all by name but a couple worthy of a few words are Cape Classic and Tartiflette. The former arguably has work to do if he is to defy a mark of 97 but he demonstrated his well-being on his seasonal bow at Haydock and strikes as the type that is ideally suited to being held-up off a strong pace. 

Tartiflette actually won that Haydock affair on her own reappearance, posting a career-best effort to score from a 5 lb higher mark than when entering the winners' enclosure at Doncaster at the end of last term. A further 5 lb rise doesn't seem excessive and she is lightly-raced enough to think that she could do better still. 

On balance it is difficult to recommend wading into one in a race of this ilk, particularly with the final field yet to be determined, but at the ante-post stage the most appealing bet is Lightning Cloud. The five-year-old ran well in this race last year without having had a preparatory outing so, with a trip to Thirsk under his belt, he seems certain to put up a bold bid in an attempt to become the latest winner of one of 2013's big handicaps.  

Recommendation:
Back Lightning Cloud in the Victoria Cup

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Follow The Money: Grey can strike Gold at Carlisle

Recommended Bets

Back Balatina @ 5.49/2 Lingfield 14:15
Lay Annaley My Darling @ 4.47/2 Lingfield 14:45
Back Grey Gold @ 2.915/8 Carlisle 15:00

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Lingfield and Carlisle...

Our first race is the 14:15 at Lingfield where Balatina has had strong support to move from 10.5n/a to 5.49/2. Despite a less than auspicious start to her career there have been glimpses of ability, most noticeably when making late progress last time out. Making her handicap bow over a shorter trip should help and the strong market move is worth our attention in a far from strong contest.

Staying at Lingfield for the 14:45, Annaley My Darling has been on the drift this morning from 3.55/2 out to 4.47/2. Although she has shown decent form on her all weather starts she seems to be up against two rivals with better claims today. When you add in a 200 day break since her last run it's easy to start looking elsewhere and that has been reflected in the market.

The final selection is in the 15:00 at Carlisle where Grey Gold has been backed in to 2.9015/8 from an early price of 3.8514/5. After a year off the track he bounced back to finish fourth on his chasing debut in a higher class affair than he will face this afternoon. If he can translate his strong hurdles form over today's distance and conditions then he is hard to look past and the backers seem to agree.

Recommended Bets

Back Balatina @ 5.49/2 Lingfield 14:15
Lay Annaley My Darling @ 4.47/2 Lingfield 14:45
Back Grey Gold @ 2.915/8 Carlisle 15:00

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Australian Derby: Strike The Stars to take in Rosehill Guineas en route

News / Timeform / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Blake Shinn: Rides Strike The Stars

"Strike The Stars didn't get the breaks when only seventh behind old nemesis Mosheen in the Randwick Guineas last time."

Trainer Anthony Cummings has said that his three-year-old Strike The Stars will swerve the Doncaster Mile and instead head for the Rosehill Guineas on his way to the Australian Derby...

Cummings confirmed that the Doncaster was always seen a a fall-back for the Savabeel gelding and, with the Australian Guineas runner-up in fine form, the Rosehill Guineas is very much the plan, with the $1.5 million Australian Derby (currently trading at [13.0]) on April 14 the main target.

Rosehill's $2.25 million BMW on April 7, in which he will meet older horses at weight-for-age, is still a possibility and he trades at [18.0] for that race, also over 2400m.

Blake Shinn will take over aboard Strike The Stars when he goes in the middle leg of Sydney's autumn triple crown for three-year-olds on Saturday, last year's Group 3 Gloaming Stakes winner looking for his first victory at the highest level.

Strike The Stars didn't get the breaks when only seventh behind old nemesis Mosheen in the Randwick Guineas last time, the filly having beaten him by three lengths in in the Australian Guineas at Flemington earlier in the month.

Mosheen herself, who is trading as short-priiced favourite for the Australian Oaks and at [24.0] for the same day's Doncaster Handicap, will reportedly attempt to further her claims for either race in the $400,000 Vinery Stud Stakes on April 7.

In other news, Corey Brown will ride Paul Messara's Rekindled Alliance is the Guinease should the horse take his chance.

Last year's winner Sweet Lightning has been taken out of the Lincoln, in which 2010 victor Penitent will now carry top weight at Doncaster on Saturday......

Godolphin's Gamilati has undergone surgery to remove a chip from her near-fore ankle and may now be forced to miss the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 6.......

Though the culmination of the all-weather season, it's difficult to see Winter Derby day at Lingfield as anything other than the beginning on the new Flat season given the quality of horses and the promising performances on show. David Johnson takes a look at them from the Timeform ratings perspective......

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Follow The Money: Lighting strike at Leicester?

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 14 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

The FTM team have a couple of runners at Leicester this afternoon

"Lightning Cloud has had steady support to move from [2.80] to [2.14]."

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Hamilton and Leicester...

In the 14:10 at Leicester, That's Dangerous has been on the drift, from [3.10] out to [4.50]. A disappointing fourth of five on his second run when fancied to go well, he had to drop down to selling company to get off the mark. While that win came over course and distance this will be a tougher test as he makes his handicap debut and early support has been on the wane.

Over at Hamilton in the 14:30, Midnight Dynamo has been well supported down to [7.60] from [13.50]. She won her maiden over this trip back in May and has run well in two handicaps since, including a close up fourth over this course and distance last time. She shapes as though she would appreciate a strong pace and is certainly open to further improvement if she gets the rub of the green.

Our final selection is in the 14:40 at Leicester where Lightning Cloud has had steady support to move from [2.80] to [2.14]. A winner three times in his last four runs, including a course and distance success back in May, he is still comparatively lightly raced. With further improvement likely, and off the same mark as his last win, he looks to be the one to beat today.

Recommended Bets
Lay That's Dangerous @ [4.50] Leicester 14:10
Back Midnight Dynamo @ [7.60] Hamilton 14:30
Back Lightning Cloud @ [2.14] Leicester 14:40

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Catterick and Uttoxeter....

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Beverley and Brighton....

The FTM boys talk us through their rationale in recommending their usual two backs and one lay....

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Timeform Radio Racing Tip: Strike one up for the Doctor

Timeform Radio Tip / Rory Delargy / 10 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Rory score any winners from today's summer jumping fare?

"In the bumper at Perth (17:10) Jive Master looks a rock-solid favourite against the Gordon Elliott runner Incas Article."

Rory Delargy is the Timeform Radio pundit on Sunday when it's wall-to-wall jumps action in the UK with meetings at Southwell, Stratford and Perth.

Best bet on the card at Stratford is the Dr Richard Newland-trained War Party in the 15:30, a handicap chase over the extended 2 miles.

War Party's latest effort came in a 2½m handicap chase here late last month when travelling well, and briefly hitting the front before his stamina was stretched. The drop back to this trip is clearly in order and the booking of promising claimer Jerry McGrath seals the deal.

Of the obvious dangers in the race, Hoo La Baloo battled on well over further last time, but hasn't raced at this sort of trip in a long time and find himself taken off his feet early, Sunday City finds himself high in the weights after some solid recent efforts, while Bushwhacker and The Jigsaw Man will find their suspect jumping tested to the limit. The former in particular makes little appeal despite a change of yard. Trooper Clarence needs to bounce back from a modest run, but had excuses (race came hard on back of a career best, and the trip was arguably too far), and looks the chief threat.

In the bumper at Perth (17:10) Jive Master looks a rock-solid favourite against the Gordon Elliott runner Incas Article. The latter took plenty of stoking to land her bumper at Clonmel and couldn't summon the requisite pace to pose any threat at the sharp Bellewstown circuit last time. She'll make her mark at 2½m+ over hurdles, but again looks vulnerable at the minimum trip here.

Jive Master showed similar form when winning his bumper at Newton Abbot, but impressed with the turn of foot he showed against modest opposition, and in what looks a dead match, his superior pace makes him look much the likeliest winner, and he should be an odds-on shot. Current odds of around [2.16] are therefore very tempting.

The pair above look solid options with plenty in their favour, but I'm always keen to find something a bit more left-field, so will throw in a longshot which I think is worth noting. That horse is Searree in the 16:50 at Southwell.

Owned and trained by veteran handler Jim Turner, this mare has looked fairly limited to date, but didn't fare too badly on her handicap debut at Sedgefield last time. Struggling to keep up over 2½m on fast ground, she looked like dropping away, but was noted keeping on to finish fourth.

The form amounts to little, but it was nice to see her finish a race off, and she can be expected to fare better over 3m today against largely dubious opposition, while the handicapper has done his bit by dropping her 3 lb. I certainly wouldn't want to take a short price on her, but at 25/1 or bigger, as she's predicted to start, she could surprise a few. Her small stable has been in good form of late, with Needie McCreadie acquitting herself well in the same colours on the Flat on several occasions.

Recommended Bets
Back War Party in the 15:30 Stratford @ [5.4] (NAP)
Back Jive Master in the 17:10 Perth @ [2.16] (NB)

There's a lot of high-quality racing available on the Saturday racing buffet and two titbits at York have attracted David Cleary's attention...

David Cleary is looking forward to an excellent day of racing at Newmarket and he's uncovered a pair of compelling prospects to back in the afternoon's big race and a little earlier......

There's plenty of quality on show at Newmarket today and two horses stand out on a bright day for class animals, says Terry Norman....

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Super League Betting: Giants to strike back?

Super League / Stuart Jones / 24 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Stuart believes Hudds could redeem themselves this Saturday

"Huddersfield couldn’t be travelling to Craven Park at a better time... "

Wigan's backline has been clinical so far and now they're boosted by the return of a key player. Meanwhile, Stuart Jones believes Huddersfield can recover some pride this weekend.

Much to my and Nathan Brown's annoyance, Wigan put up a performance on Friday night that highlighted exactly why they will repeat last year's regular shield victory. Despite missing numerous first team players, and Amos Roberts' best efforts, Wigan restricted a solid top four side to just the six points at home and barely made a handling error in 80 minutes.

The Tomkins brothers return from suspension this week and, for the first time this season, Michael Maguire has been able to include Brett Finch in his provisional squad of 19. Finch's inclusion is a timely boost with Paul Deacon missing the last couple of rounds with injury, and the former Melbourne star should give an already clinical backline an added dimension, whilst his kicking from hand would be vastly superior to that of Thomas Leuluai.

Warrington won't be arriving at the DW Stadium short of confidence. Five consecutive wins and an 82-6 mauling of Quins last weekend has seen Tony Smith's men climb above Wigan in the league table, admittedly having played a game more.

It's very difficult to split the pair on paper, and the current prices look about right to me, given home advantage for Wigan. With so little between the two sides I can see this going right down to the wire, and with Lee Briers and Brett Finch both partial to a field goal, the [6.0] available for there to be a drop goal in the game looks worthy of a small interest.

Huddersfield get the chance to redeem themselves in front of the Sky cameras on Saturday evening as they take on Hull KR at Craven Park. Nathan Brown will have been very disappointed with the lack of composure shown by his side last week as they had the possession and territory to give Wigan much more of a game than they did. It's fair to say that is an area they will have focussed on during the week and they are unlikely to come up against such stubborn defence this time.

Hull KR haven't got their season off to the greatest of starts, not for the first time, and come into this fixture on the back of consecutive defeats. Last week's loss at Salford has left them down in ninth position. With key figures still on the sidelines, it's going to take a big effort to turn things around against the Giants.

Michael Dobson and Clint Newton won't be returning this week, and, even with the arrival of Blake Green and Willie Mason, the significance of their absence should not be underestimated. Dobson is the heartbeat of their backline, and Newton's tremendous work rate is something that is sorely missed.

Huddersfield couldn't be travelling to Craven Park at a better time and, with tries unlikely to be so hard to come by against a struggling KR side, I am going to keep the faith with them on the handicap.

Recommended Bets
Any player to score a drop goal @ [6.0] in the Wigan vs Warrington game
Huddersfield -4 @ [1.91] against Hull KR

Stuart Jones believes the Giants backs can make the difference when the champions go to the Galpharm on Friday night. Meanwhile, can the Rhinos ignite their campaign against Saints?...

Warrington are on a roll, so does Stuart Jones believe they can cover the handicap against struggling Wakefield? Meanwhile, who will win the battle between the Cats and the Tigers?...

Stuart Jones believes that Huddersfield will not make the same mistake as Leeds. Meanwhile, can Leeds front up against the Wolves pack?...

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