Myth-busting: 2000 Guineas is the best Derby trial

"This year’s Guineas winner Dawn Approach has some illustrious hoofprints to fill, but this “myth” provides encouragement that he can do so, for it is not really a myth at all..."

Simon Rowlands analyses the recognised Derby Trials in an attempt to discover which provides the best pointers for Epsom...

This saying is not as popular as it once was - indeed, it took no small amount of Googling to relocate it - but the idea that the best trial for the second colts' classic is the first colts' classic has a certain ring of truth to it. 

Against that, the Guineas is run at a mile at Newmarket, while the Derby is run at just over a mile and a half at Epsom. It is asking something of a young horse to excel at both in the space of less than a month. 

As with many a "myth", its veracity depends in no small part on how you look at the evidence. Judged on winners alone, the Guineas is equal on four with the Dante for three-year-old "trials" this century, though in New Approach's case he ran in the Irish Guineas between defeat at Newmarket and success at Epsom. 

If we take a horse's most recent run prior to the Derby as its definitive trial for that race, the Dante is alone at the top, but from 28 representatives this century against 18 for the Guineas. The strike-rate for horses going to Epsom straight from the Guineas is higher than the same for the Dante, in other words. 

Regular readers of this blog will know that wins, and wins alone, can be a crude measure, and that strike-rates are often little better: the former disregards the wealth of nuanced information from the majority of horses that do not win, while the latter fails to allow for opportunity, such as reflected in field size. 

One way to look at this issue is to consider the percentage of rivals beaten by horses in a given trial and then the percentage of rivals beaten by that cohort in the Derby itself. Percentage of rivals beaten reflects, for instance, that it is better to finish second of 15 than second of five. 

There is one slight drawback with this approach, and that is our old friend Regression To The Mean, which dictates that winners of trials will be punished compared to horses out the back. If you have beaten 100% of your rivals in a trial, you can at best match that in the Derby itself; conversely, if you have finished plum last in a trial you can do no worse (and may do better) in the big race itself. There is a tendency for extremes to head towards the middle. 

An adjustment for this phenomenon alters the figures somewhat, but not the ranking, and has the Guineas as top on a factor of 0.78 (a horse that had beaten 50% of its rivals in the Guineas could be expected to beat 39% of its rivals in the Derby), followed by Leopardstown's Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial on 0.76, the Dante on 0.74 and the Chester Vase on 0.68. 

One interesting consequence of this is that it implies finishing second in this year's Guineas (beating 91.7% of rivals, with an expectation of beating 71.5% at Epsom) would be better than winning the Chester Vase (expectation of beating 68% of rivals at Epsom). 

The figures for all trials (latest run only) which produced five or more runners in the Derby this century are shown here: 

By this measure the Guineas is indeed the best trial for the Derby, but only just. By other measures, it could be argued that it is not, but only just. 

This year's Guineas winner Dawn Approach has some illustrious hoofprints to fill, but this "myth" provides encouragement that he can do so, for it is not really a myth at all. 

While the figures quoted are primarily descriptive of past events, I will, for interest, calculate expected % rivals beaten when all the named trials have been run and post those expectations in the comments section below.

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Grand National Trial: Cappa Bleu in Haydock reversal mission

Ante-post / Matt Gardner / 15 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Haydock plays host to the Grand National Trial.

"Le Beau Bai cannot be written off at Haydock, but preference is marginally for the horse that finished two places behind him in December..."

Timeform's Matt Gardner takes an ante-post look at Saturday's Grand National Trial, run over three and a half miles at Haydock Park...

Despite its billing, a quick look back at the last ten running's of the race show it to be anything but a trial for the Grand National. Of that sample, just six winners have gone on to compete in that year's Aintree event, with Forest Gunner coming closest to hitting the target when finishing fifth in 2005.

Aside from the aforementioned horse, the recent record of Haydock Trial winners that then ran in the big one reads 12th, PU, F, PU and UR, hardly an inspiring punting angle looking ahead to Aintree. However, statistics and race records merely show what has happened in the past, and the field that is likely to assemble at Haydock could include some live Grand National contenders.

Currently heading the market for Aintree in April is the David Pipe-trained Junior, trading at [13.5], who was last seen on a racecourse when finishing ninth in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting in June. His last run in the National Hunt sphere resulted in a resounding 24-length victory in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival, and he will contest Saturday's race off a 19 lb higher mark.

Junior is arguably deserving of his status in the market, but with regards to this weekend's event, he is far from a certain runner as his season will be revolving around that one day in April. If turning up, he would be a major player with the National weights already announced, but from an ante-post perspective he is difficult to recommend.

A race that is fairly crucial to look at prior to making your Haydock selection is the Welsh National, as the first three from Chepstow are all engaged to reoppose, and they are the trio at the top of the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings.

Heading the ratings, but runner-up in December, is Giles Cross, who seemingly relishes stamina-sapping contests. His last four races have returned a runner-up position in two Welsh Nationals and a particularly brutal Eider Chase, with a win in the Southern National thrown into the mix.

However, it is difficult to imagine him reversing the Chepstow placing with Le Beau Bai, who is just 1 lb inferior to him on Timeform ratings. The nine-year-old has finished third in each of the last two renewals of the National Trial, and will go into this year's race in considerably better form than 12 months ago, racing from just a 3 lb higher BHA rating.

The [9.6] currently available makes plenty of appeal but arguably not as much as the [12.0] that Cappa Bleu is currently trading at.

The Evan Williams-trained ten-year-old returned from a 20-month absence at Haydock in November, beating Tamarinbleu by a head off a mark of 140. His latest start saw him finishing third to Le Beau Bai and Giles Cross at Chepstow, travelling well but never quite able to get on terms with the front pair, eventually shaping better than the result.
The overriding positive from that run, however, was that he showed himself to be still in one piece after his Haydock exertions. The suspicion was that he may have gone backwards after the run, recoiling after such a long layoff, but he can now be supported with a good degree of confidence.

Allowed to race off the same official rating (147) as at Chepstow, he is primed to run well and strikes as the most likely winner at this stage.

The rest of the field is fairly difficult to weigh up, with plenty set to be out of the handicap if Neptune Collonges takes up his engagement.

Sona Sasta, Rey Nacarado and Major Malarkey are of interest but, in truth, it is difficult to see any of them being up to mixing it with the Welsh National trio, whilst Deep Purple, last seen when winning the London National at Sandown on his first attempt beyond 25 furlongs, would have excellent claims if turning up but, as he has a multitude of entries in the coming weeks, he cannot be recommended.

Despite what was said at the beginning of this article, the most likely winner of Haydock's Saturday trial, Cappa Bleu, has a realistic chance of going on to National glory. He currently trades at [28.0] for the Aintree race, a price sure to contract should he seal the win at the weekend, and he appears to have excellent claims in both races, coming out towards the fore of the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings in each. Le Beau Bai cannot be written off at Haydock either, but preference is marginally for the horse that finished two places behind him at Chepstow in December.

Recommendation

Back Cappa Bleu @ [12.0] in the Grand National Trial at Haydock

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1st ODI Betting Pakistan v England: New trial by spin

Pakistan v England / Ed Hawkins / 12 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

"Before considering backing Alastair Cook’s team we would like to see evidence that they can counter Pakistan’s spin"

Ed Hawkins has all the stats and analysis ahead of the first match in Abu Dhabi tomorrow

Pakistan
The 'hosts' could launch an army of spinners against England following the tourists' poor performance against twirl in the Test series.

Saeed Ajmal and Abdur Rehman could be joined by Shahid Afridi, whose variations are potent in this format, plus there are other spin options in Mohammad Hafeez and Imran Farhat. Shoaib Malik, the off-spinning allrounder, returns to the squad while Umar Gul and Wahab Riaz are the likely pace pairing.

England
Stuart Broad, Jonathan Trott, Kevin Pietersen and Monty Panesar were unhurt after a taxi they were travelling in had to stop suddenly after its bonnet flew up, obscuring the driver's view.

Jos Buttler, the highly-rated Somerset batsman, is expected to miss out after injuring a hand in the nets. Buttler needed stitches when he split the webbing on his left hand. Ravi Bopara, the patient tourist, should play in his place.

Tim Bresnan returns following his injury lay-off. Bresnan played in the warm-up match against England Lions, taking one for 23. Steven Finn looks to have bowled himself into a berth with three for 28 and although Jade Dernbach also took three wickets, the Middlesex man should pip him for the final fast-bowling slot.

Venue and conditions
The Sheikh Zayed Stadium in Abu Dhabi has hosted 17 ODIs, all under lights, but there is no discernible toss bias with a nine-eight split in favour of the side batting first. The average first-innings score in those matches is 251. Pakistan have a good record at this ground, winning ten from those 17.

Match odds
If you missed our series preview, you can read it here. It makes for grim reading for England supporters, largely because of a poor record in Asian conditions. England have won just 12 of 38 ODIs in Asia. It is a stat worth repeating.

Pakistan are as short as [1.78] to take honours in the first game with England [2.28]. Before considering backing Alastair Cook's team we would like to see evidence that they can counter Pakistan's spin.

Moving up Kevin Pietersen to the position as an opener is not a bad idea to protect their supposed stellar performer from spin, but don't be surprised to see Pakistan open the bowling with Ajmal from one end.

As if twirl does not terrify enough, England appear to have a potential problem in the middle order. Craig Kieswetter, a pinch hitter, is now expected to do the job of a finisher, or a nudger and nurdler in these conditions. It a potentially stupefying move.

England's best chance is to bat first without the pressure of a chase and hope that Stuart Broad and Bresnan, impressive performers with the ball, can trouble Pakistan.

Top Pakistan batsman
Misbah-ul-Haq top scored for Pakistan last time at this venue with 66 against Sri Lanka. He is [5.10]. Umar Akmal, Pakistan's best batsman in ODis in recent times, also scored a fifty in that game. He is [3.55] under Any Other, which includes Afridi and Malik. Not a bad wager.

Top England batsman
Jonathan Trott [4.70], Alastair Cook [4.60] and Eoin Morgan [5.10] are England's best hopes of countering Pakistan's squeeze, although Morgan was in poor nick in the Test series. Pietersen is [4.40] favourite.

Recommended bet

Back Any Other top Pakistan batsman @ [3.55]

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Haydock Grand National Trial Meeting Preview: Top weight no barrier for Silver By Nature

Tipping / Timeform / 17 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Silver By Nature bids to follow up last year's Haydock success

"Likewise weight isn't a huge hindrance, with two winners carrying top weight of 11-12 in the past eight years, something which last year's winner Silver By Nature has to deal with this time around."

Haydock stages one of its flagship jumping days on Saturday, featuring three Grade 2 hurdles as well as the Grand National Trial, in which Silver By Nature bids to repeat last year's success...

The Victor Ludorum gets things underway (13:40), when Local Hero aims to continue his progression up the juvenile hurdling ranks. The Steve Gollings-trained gelding may have appeared only workmanlike in victory at Cheltenham last time, but he responded favourably to AP McCoy's urgings and it will be interesting to see if connections of the second-placed Third Intention take him on again after that horse pulled far too hard early on last time. Smad Place is a huge danger but has to put a disappointing run behind him, whilst Alan King also has Dhaafer, Jalail and Kumbeshwar to choose from. Houblon des Obeaux is the other horse to note after an encouraging British debut, when succumbing only to Marsh Warbler in a Grade 1 at Chepstow.

The Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle (14:10), formerly known as the Prestige, was won by the since-unbeaten novice chaser Wymott last year, and his trainer Donald McCain has the improving pair of Lively Baron and Tornado Bob entered at this stage. However, both will have to continue their rapid progress if they are to challenge the strong-travelling Court In Motion, who has already shown form good enough to win an average renewal of this race and is a high-class prospect indeed. Dangers include Mr Moonshine, who is a fluent jumper and is capable of better still, and Rose of The Moon, who was second to Bobs Worth at Cheltenham but needs to put a desperate run last time firmly behind him.

The Rendlesham Hurdle (14:45) has been won by some very good staying hurdlers in its history and has been a happy hunting ground for French maestro Francois Doumen in recent years, with Baracouda landing the spoils in 2002 before Kasbah Bliss provided two victories (2008 and 2009) in its new home at Haydock Park (moved from Kempton in 2006).

No French challengers this year and, indeed, it doesn't seem there are any horses likely to repeat the feat of winning both this and the World Hurdle in the same year last achieved by the aforementioned Baracouda in 2002. That said, trainer Alan King won this race in 2005 with World Hurdle third Crystal d'Ainay and looks set to saddle Bensalem here.

The fact that the trainer toyed with the idea of sending Bensalem back over fences but has entered him here suggests that he could have the Cheltenham contest firmly on his radar, albeit he will have his work cut out against Big Buck's and Grands Crus.

More immediately, though, he faces the challenge of the admirably-consistent Any Given Day, who finished seven-lengths second to Oscar Whisky over a shorter trip last time, despite being off the bridle early on. Donald McCain's grey is certainly genuine and rates a big danger to all here. The best of the rest could be the somewhat-tricky Ashkazar and the infrequently-raced Sentry Duty.

The Grand National trial has gone through a few incarnations in the past but remains a relevant precursor to the main event, even if the winner of the race isn't always the one to follow at Aintree.

Age doesn't seem to be a boundary, with a couple of 7-y-os and a pair of 11-y-os emerging victorious since 2005. Likewise weight isn't a huge hindrance, with two winners carrying top weight of 11-12 in the past eight years, something which last year's winner Silver By Nature has to deal with this time around.

One of those to shoulder that burden was 2008 winner Miko de Beauchene whose year younger brother Nicto de Beuachene attempts to follow in his footsteps and comes into the race on the back of a sixteen-length defeat of Quattrocento at Sandown. Soft ground is his bag and the same comment applies to the diminutive Le Beau Bai, who is usually a solid jumper and isn't without a chance granted his favoured conditions.

Trainer Kim Bailey knows what it takes to win the race, saddling none other than Master Oats to win in 1994, and he is represented by Sarde this time, who comes into the race unbeaten in handicap chases, but they all might have to give way to West End Rocker if he turns up in the same form he was in when victorious last time.

Alan King's 9-y-o has been let down by his jumping in the past but is doing very little wrong at present. What's more, he beat subsequent winners Cornish Sett and the aforementioned Nicto de Beauchene back in December before scoring again last time, so he looks to hold a very strong chance. His stiffest opposition may come from King Fontaine if he can just eliminate the mistakes he can sometimes make early on.

To view the latest odds for Haydock's Grand National Trial click HERE.

Haydock stages one of its flagship jumping days on Saturday, featuring three Grade 2 hurdles as well as the Grand National Trial, in which Silver By Nature bids to repeat last year's success......

The National Hunt season has had more than a stop-start feel to it thus far, with all the abandonments of December rolling into January and then the unfortunate events at Newbury last weekend. Here's hoping that the rearranged meeting at the Berkshire track on Friday and Ascot's big card on Saturday signal the return of the show to the road....

Clonmel has passed a morning inspection and we are hoping for better luck than yesterday with these three selections........

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Haydock Grand National Trial Meeting Preview: Top weight no barrier for Silver By Nature

Tipping / Timeform / 15 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Silver By Nature bids to follow up last year's Haydock success

"Likewise weight isn't a huge hindrance, with two winners carrying top weight of 11-12 in the past eight years, something which last year's winner Silver By Nature has to deal with this time around."

Haydock stages one of its flagship jumping days on Saturday, featuring three Grade 2 hurdles as well as the Grand National Trial, in which Silver By Nature bids to repeat last year's success...

The Victor Ludorum gets things underway (13:40), when Local Hero aims to continue his progression up the juvenile hurdling ranks. The Steve Gollings-trained gelding may have appeared only workmanlike in victory at Cheltenham last time, but he responded favourably to AP McCoy's urgings and it will be interesting to see if connections of the second-placed Third Intention take him on again after that horse pulled far too hard early on last time. Smad Place is a huge danger but has to put a disappointing run behind him, whilst Alan King also has Dhaafer, Jalail and Kumbeshwar to choose from. Houblon des Obeaux is the other horse to note after an encouraging British debut, when succumbing only to Marsh Warbler in a Grade 1 at Chepstow.

The Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle (14:10), formerly known as the Prestige, was won by the since-unbeaten novice chaser Wymott last year, and his trainer Donald McCain has the improving pair of Lively Baron and Tornado Bob entered at this stage. However, both will have to continue their rapid progress if they are to challenge the strong-travelling Court In Motion, who has already shown form good enough to win an average renewal of this race and is a high-class prospect indeed. Dangers include Mr Moonshine, who is a fluent jumper and is capable of better still, and Rose of The Moon, who was second to Bobs Worth at Cheltenham but needs to put a desperate run last time firmly behind him.

The Rendlesham Hurdle (14:45) has been won by some very good staying hurdlers in its history and has been a happy hunting ground for French maestro Francois Doumen in recent years, with Baracouda landing the spoils in 2002 before Kasbah Bliss provided two victories (2008 and 2009) in its new home at Haydock Park (moved from Kempton in 2006).

No French challengers this year and, indeed, it doesn't seem there are any horses likely to repeat the feat of winning both this and the World Hurdle in the same year last achieved by the aforementioned Baracouda in 2002. That said, trainer Alan King won this race in 2005 with World Hurdle third Crystal d'Ainay and looks set to saddle Bensalem here.

The fact that the trainer toyed with the idea of sending Bensalem back over fences but has entered him here suggests that he could have the Cheltenham contest firmly on his radar, albeit he will have his work cut out against Big Buck's and Grands Crus.

More immediately, though, he faces the challenge of the admirably-consistent Any Given Day, who finished seven-lengths second to Oscar Whisky over a shorter trip last time, despite being off the bridle early on. Donald McCain's grey is certainly genuine and rates a big danger to all here. The best of the rest could be the somewhat-tricky Ashkazar and the infrequently-raced Sentry Duty.

The Grand National trial has gone through a few incarnations in the past but remains a relevant precursor to the main event, even if the winner of the race isn't always the one to follow at Aintree.

Age doesn't seem to be a boundary, with a couple of 7-y-os and a pair of 11-y-os emerging victorious since 2005. Likewise weight isn't a huge hindrance, with two winners carrying top weight of 11-12 in the past eight years, something which last year's winner Silver By Nature has to deal with this time around.

One of those to shoulder that burden was 2008 winner Miko de Beauchene whose year younger brother Nicto de Beuachene attempts to follow in his footsteps and comes into the race on the back of a sixteen-length defeat of Quattrocento at Sandown. Soft ground is his bag and the same comment applies to the diminutive Le Beau Bai, who is usually a solid jumper and isn't without a chance granted his favoured conditions.

Trainer Kim Bailey knows what it takes to win the race, saddling none other than Master Oats to win in 1994, and he is represented by Sarde this time, who comes into the race unbeaten in handicap chases, but they all might have to give way to West End Rocker if he turns up in the same form he was in when victorious last time.

Alan King's 9-y-o has been let down by his jumping in the past but is doing very little wrong at present. What's more, he beat subsequent winners Cornish Sett and the aforementioned Nicto de Beauchene back in December before scoring again last time, so he looks to hold a very strong chance. His stiffest opposition may come from King Fontaine if he can just eliminate the mistakes he can sometimes make early on.

To view the latest odds for Haydock's Grand National Trial click HERE.

Haydock stages one of its flagship jumping days on Saturday, featuring three Grade 2 hurdles as well as the Grand National Trial, in which Silver By Nature bids to repeat last year's success......

The National Hunt season has had more than a stop-start feel to it thus far, with all the abandonments of December rolling into January and then the unfortunate events at Newbury last weekend. Here's hoping that the rearranged meeting at the Berkshire track on Friday and Ascot's big card on Saturday signal the return of the show to the road....

The Cheltenham showpiece; jumps racing's Blue Riband; the Gold Cup: whatever you call it, the feature on the last day of the Cheltenham Festival remains the most prestigious race at the most prestigious jumps meeting in the world. With six weeks to go until the big day, Keith Melrose takes a look at the main contenders....

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