Mayor of London: Sorry Boris, Ken is on a mission

General Politics Betting / Jack Houghton / 17 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Casually-coifed buffoonery: voters beginning to tire of Johnson's antics?

"The Conservative-led Government are unpopular among moderates and Johnson will struggle to distance himself from his Westminster brethren."

Despite what the market might be saying, Livingstone should now be favourite for mayoral race, writes Jack Houghton.

Ears piqued politicos, it's pub quiz time.

Question one. Guess the year.

An eccentric, populist Tory, prone to gimmicky publicity stunts. An unpopular Conservative national government, two years into a term of cut-backs and austerity measures, facing rising unemployment and dwindling moderate support. Tension between the Metropolitan Police and ethnic London communities leading to the worst riots in recent memory. Ken Livingstone emerging victorious in May elections to lead the London authority.

The answer, you may have guessed, is 1981.

Question two. Are we set for a repeat in 2012?

The similarities between the casually-coifed Boris Johnson and the bow-tied and bearded Sir Horace Cutler - leader of the GLC between 1977 and 1981 - are easy to draw: both flamboyant Tories; both courtiers of the popular press. And, just as Cutler did in 1981, Johnson now faces Ken Livingstone against the backdrop of an unpopular Tory-led government, and as the man-on-watch when riots lit up the capital.

At a generous looking [2.76], then, no-longer-red-Ken looks a solid bet to regain the mayorship on May 3.

Question three. Why back Ken?
[Note to quizmaster: one mark for each of the following...]

The Conservative-led Government are unpopular among moderates and Johnson will struggle to distance himself from his Westminster brethren. In any election to a devolved body, national politics is a key determiner of voter behaviour. And although Johnson has tried to distance himself from his masters' cuts, opposition parties will constantly remind voters that Johnson campaigned for those masters at the last General Election. When Livingstone was defeated in 2008, it was thought to be largely due to him losing a swathe of swing voters disenchanted with the tail-end of New Labour. Many of those will now come back to him.

Voters have begun to tire of Johnson's buffoonery. I'm not a huge fan of opinion polls, but it's interesting that, despite Livingstone taking a lead in the last two conducted, it is Johnson's price that has shortened of late - albeit only narrowly. Of particular note, though, are not the headline polling numbers, but the significant decline they show, from polls conducted last summer, in how many voters view Johnson as "Strong" and "In touch with the concerns of ordinary people." A series of public order debacles (the most significant being the London riots of August 2011) and a panoply of public relations gaffs (from Damian Green to Chicken Feed to Veronica Wadley to Helen Macintyre) have given Johnson's opposition the perfect tools with which to beat him when campaigning gets going.

The supplementary vote system should favour Livingstone. Even if Johnson is able to win the first preference ballot, it is likely that Livingstone, sweeping up the majority of second preference votes from Liberal Democrat and Green supporters, will win the overall count.

*****

Over in the US, the race for the Republican nomination continues to fascinate. Back at the start of the year, I put up Romney as a lay at [1.30], saying that shifting allegiances could yet see Romney struggle. Since then, under a Gingrich charge, Romney has drifted out to [1.84], hardened back in to [1.13], and now, with Super Tuesday a fortnight away, is back out to [1.45]. It's now getting harder to assess the value in the market, and so I've traded out of my position on Romney for a small profit.

I suggest you do the same. Use your money instead to go back in on Obama to win a second term. Put up at [1.87] here at the start of January, Obama has since hardened into [1.58]. But that price still looks generous: the Republican candidates continue to trash-talk each other on a daily basis and it would take some inept campaigning from Obama's team to be unable to capitalise on that in the Presidential election.

Recommendations:
4pts back Ken Livingstone at [2.76] to win London Mayoral Election.
5pts back Obama at [1.58] to be Next President.

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Grand National Trial: Cappa Bleu in Haydock reversal mission

Ante-post / Matt Gardner / 15 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Haydock plays host to the Grand National Trial.

"Le Beau Bai cannot be written off at Haydock, but preference is marginally for the horse that finished two places behind him in December..."

Timeform's Matt Gardner takes an ante-post look at Saturday's Grand National Trial, run over three and a half miles at Haydock Park...

Despite its billing, a quick look back at the last ten running's of the race show it to be anything but a trial for the Grand National. Of that sample, just six winners have gone on to compete in that year's Aintree event, with Forest Gunner coming closest to hitting the target when finishing fifth in 2005.

Aside from the aforementioned horse, the recent record of Haydock Trial winners that then ran in the big one reads 12th, PU, F, PU and UR, hardly an inspiring punting angle looking ahead to Aintree. However, statistics and race records merely show what has happened in the past, and the field that is likely to assemble at Haydock could include some live Grand National contenders.

Currently heading the market for Aintree in April is the David Pipe-trained Junior, trading at [13.5], who was last seen on a racecourse when finishing ninth in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting in June. His last run in the National Hunt sphere resulted in a resounding 24-length victory in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival, and he will contest Saturday's race off a 19 lb higher mark.

Junior is arguably deserving of his status in the market, but with regards to this weekend's event, he is far from a certain runner as his season will be revolving around that one day in April. If turning up, he would be a major player with the National weights already announced, but from an ante-post perspective he is difficult to recommend.

A race that is fairly crucial to look at prior to making your Haydock selection is the Welsh National, as the first three from Chepstow are all engaged to reoppose, and they are the trio at the top of the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings.

Heading the ratings, but runner-up in December, is Giles Cross, who seemingly relishes stamina-sapping contests. His last four races have returned a runner-up position in two Welsh Nationals and a particularly brutal Eider Chase, with a win in the Southern National thrown into the mix.

However, it is difficult to imagine him reversing the Chepstow placing with Le Beau Bai, who is just 1 lb inferior to him on Timeform ratings. The nine-year-old has finished third in each of the last two renewals of the National Trial, and will go into this year's race in considerably better form than 12 months ago, racing from just a 3 lb higher BHA rating.

The [9.6] currently available makes plenty of appeal but arguably not as much as the [12.0] that Cappa Bleu is currently trading at.

The Evan Williams-trained ten-year-old returned from a 20-month absence at Haydock in November, beating Tamarinbleu by a head off a mark of 140. His latest start saw him finishing third to Le Beau Bai and Giles Cross at Chepstow, travelling well but never quite able to get on terms with the front pair, eventually shaping better than the result.
The overriding positive from that run, however, was that he showed himself to be still in one piece after his Haydock exertions. The suspicion was that he may have gone backwards after the run, recoiling after such a long layoff, but he can now be supported with a good degree of confidence.

Allowed to race off the same official rating (147) as at Chepstow, he is primed to run well and strikes as the most likely winner at this stage.

The rest of the field is fairly difficult to weigh up, with plenty set to be out of the handicap if Neptune Collonges takes up his engagement.

Sona Sasta, Rey Nacarado and Major Malarkey are of interest but, in truth, it is difficult to see any of them being up to mixing it with the Welsh National trio, whilst Deep Purple, last seen when winning the London National at Sandown on his first attempt beyond 25 furlongs, would have excellent claims if turning up but, as he has a multitude of entries in the coming weeks, he cannot be recommended.

Despite what was said at the beginning of this article, the most likely winner of Haydock's Saturday trial, Cappa Bleu, has a realistic chance of going on to National glory. He currently trades at [28.0] for the Aintree race, a price sure to contract should he seal the win at the weekend, and he appears to have excellent claims in both races, coming out towards the fore of the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings in each. Le Beau Bai cannot be written off at Haydock either, but preference is marginally for the horse that finished two places behind him at Chepstow in December.

Recommendation

Back Cappa Bleu @ [12.0] in the Grand National Trial at Haydock

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