Cross-Sport Multiple: Villa have momentum to stop Reds

"Both teams are creating and leaking plenty of goals, so this could be a high-scoring game, but Villa have the momentum and can earn a useful point."

Andrew Hughes thinks Aston Villa can earn a draw against Liverpool and help land a Sunday cross-sport multiple in the process.

Betfair now gives you the facility to mix and match your multiples across a huge range of sports and markets with the easy-to-use betslip and so each weekend I've been putting together a cross-sport treble with the aim of showing the way to maximise your profits.

Bet 1: Back Aston Villa to draw with Liverpool at 3.814/5

Liverpool can't afford too many more slip-ups if they want to secure European football next season. They haven't been great away from home this season, but all their wins have come against teams currently in the bottom half of the table, and on paper, they have too much ability for a Villa side still mired in a relegation battle. 

But after a torrid start to 2013, Villa have begun to show some fight with crucial victories over Reading and QPR. They also have a good record against Liverpool, having won three of their last seven encounters, including a 3-1 victory at Anfield earlier this season. Both teams are creating and leaking plenty of goals, so this could be a high-scoring game, but Villa have the momentum and can earn a useful point.

Bet 2: London Irish to beat Sale Sharks at 1.282/7

After their disastrous start to the season, Sale have been in better form in 2013, winning three of their last five. The points deduction suffered by London Welsh has helped the Sharks' cause and they are five points clear of the bottom spot in the Aviva Premiership. They will be hoping to extend their run against the team immediately above them, against whom they recorded their first victory of the campaign, 21-9, back in November

But the Sharks haven't been that impressive away from home this season, their only win being a narrow 26-25 success against London Welsh. And they are up against a side in equally good form on Sunday. London Irish have won four of their last six and  haven't lost at home this year. More significantly, the Sharks haven't beaten the Exiles at the Madjeski since 2006. Back London Irish to take the points. 

Bet 3: Back Andy Murray to beat David Ferrer at 1.330/100

Sunday's final of the Sony Open is between the third and fifth-ranked players in the world, and a win for Andy Murray would move him up to second, ahead of Roger Federer. But if he is to win the tournament for the second time, he will need to improve on his showing against Richard Gasquet in the semi-final, where he dropped the first set thanks to a string of unforced errors. 

On the plus side, his record against his final opponent, David Ferrer is good. Ferrer, who also had to come from a set down in his semi-final, against Novak Djokovic's conqueror, Tommy Haas, has won five of his eleven matches against Murray, but four of those wins have come on clay. On hard courts, Murray has a commanding 5-1 lead against the man who is six years his senior. 

Ferrer won't make it easy for the Scotsman and the final is likely to go to three sets, but Murray has won eight of the eleven Masters finals he has contested, and he is a solid bet to pick up another big prize on Sunday.  

Total Odds for this multiple: 6.47n/a Remember, multiple prices are based on our Fixed
Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

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Football League Play-Offs Stats: Momentum and away form are key

English Football League / Andrew Atherley / 11 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Daniel Ward of Huddersfield puts in a tackle against Brighton. The stats suggest Lee Clark's side are in a good position to tackle the Play-Offs

"But the fact that the highest-placed team doesn’t win all the time indicates other forces are at work. No doubt one of them is luck, but two more tangible factors are momentum and away form."

Punters will have different opinions as to how to approach betting ahead of the Play-Offs but use of long-term stats are a pretty good starting point and Andrew Atherley is as good as anyone when it comes to number-crunching.

The Football League playoffs are effectively a mini cup tournament and the best team doesn't always win, but several strong trends have emerged in the 21 years since the current format was settled upon.

The stats help firstly to dispel one of the chief myths surrounding the playoffs: the notion that the best-placed finisher in the league table (third in the Championship and League One and fourth in League Two) has a poisoned chalice.

In fact, a top seed from at least one of the three divisions has gone up in 19 of the past 21 years and top seeds account for 40% of playoff winners (from 25% representation). The other seedings have an overall success rate below 25%, so it is they who have under-performed.

But the fact that the highest-placed team doesn't win all the time indicates other forces are at work. No doubt one of them is luck, but two more tangible factors are momentum and away form.

Momentum - measured by points gained from the final eight games of the regular season - has been particularly important in the Championship, with 13 of the past 15 winners ranking in the top two (this year Cardiff rank first and Reading second).

Overall, at least one of the highest-ranked momentum teams from the three divisions has gone up in 15 of the past 21 years. Along with Cardiff, Huddersfield (League One) and Shrewsbury (League Two) are this year's momentum teams.

Away form is also important. Teams that rely on a strong home record to reach the playoffs are often caught out by having to play an away leg and the final (if they get that far) on a neutral ground.

At least one of the highest-ranked away teams from the three divisions has gone up in 11 of the past 13 seasons. Cardiff hold the best away record in the Championship this time, while in League One it is Huddersfield and in League Two it is Shrewsbury.

It is interesting that Cardiff, Huddersfield and Shrewsbury rank top on momentum and away form, and even more so that Huddersfield and Shrewsbury are the top seeds as well (Cardiff would have been too if they had won instead of drawn at Burnley on the final day of the regular season).

From the handful of teams that have ranked top in all three categories (seeding, momentum and away form) five out of 10 have been promoted. That indicates Huddersfield at [2.76] and Shrewsbury at [3.15] are solid favourites, while Cardiff are well worth considering at [3.95].

The three teams who are up against it on the stats are Nottingham Forest in the Championship, Bournemouth in League One and Stevenage in League Two. All three rank outside the top two in each category and teams with that sort of record have fared poorly - in League Two only two out of 21 have been promoted.

In terms of the first-leg results, the stat that really stands out is the high draw rate in League One (24 out of 42, or 57%). Not surprisingly, there is a strong trend towards under 2.5 goals in League One first legs (71%), as there is in League Two (69%).

The stats on the FA Cup final point to victory for Manchester City (in the Premier League era, the higher-placed team in the league structure has won 14 times out of 18) in 90 minutes (14 of the last 18 finals) and possibly to nil (12 of the 14 winners in 90 minutes have done it that way).

Under 2.5 goals is strongly indicated (13 of the last 18 have had unders).

Recommended bets

Huddersfield to be promoted from League One at [2.76]
Shrewsbury to be promoted from League Two at [3.15]
Draw in Bournemouth v Huddersfield at [3.45]
Draw in MK Dons v Peterborough at [3.45]
Manchester City to win FA Cup final in 90 minutes at [1.93]
Back Under 2.5 goals in FA Cup final at [1.76]

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