Football League Play-Offs Stats: Momentum and away form are key

English Football League / Andrew Atherley / 11 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Daniel Ward of Huddersfield puts in a tackle against Brighton. The stats suggest Lee Clark's side are in a good position to tackle the Play-Offs

"But the fact that the highest-placed team doesn’t win all the time indicates other forces are at work. No doubt one of them is luck, but two more tangible factors are momentum and away form."

Punters will have different opinions as to how to approach betting ahead of the Play-Offs but use of long-term stats are a pretty good starting point and Andrew Atherley is as good as anyone when it comes to number-crunching.

The Football League playoffs are effectively a mini cup tournament and the best team doesn't always win, but several strong trends have emerged in the 21 years since the current format was settled upon.

The stats help firstly to dispel one of the chief myths surrounding the playoffs: the notion that the best-placed finisher in the league table (third in the Championship and League One and fourth in League Two) has a poisoned chalice.

In fact, a top seed from at least one of the three divisions has gone up in 19 of the past 21 years and top seeds account for 40% of playoff winners (from 25% representation). The other seedings have an overall success rate below 25%, so it is they who have under-performed.

But the fact that the highest-placed team doesn't win all the time indicates other forces are at work. No doubt one of them is luck, but two more tangible factors are momentum and away form.

Momentum - measured by points gained from the final eight games of the regular season - has been particularly important in the Championship, with 13 of the past 15 winners ranking in the top two (this year Cardiff rank first and Reading second).

Overall, at least one of the highest-ranked momentum teams from the three divisions has gone up in 15 of the past 21 years. Along with Cardiff, Huddersfield (League One) and Shrewsbury (League Two) are this year's momentum teams.

Away form is also important. Teams that rely on a strong home record to reach the playoffs are often caught out by having to play an away leg and the final (if they get that far) on a neutral ground.

At least one of the highest-ranked away teams from the three divisions has gone up in 11 of the past 13 seasons. Cardiff hold the best away record in the Championship this time, while in League One it is Huddersfield and in League Two it is Shrewsbury.

It is interesting that Cardiff, Huddersfield and Shrewsbury rank top on momentum and away form, and even more so that Huddersfield and Shrewsbury are the top seeds as well (Cardiff would have been too if they had won instead of drawn at Burnley on the final day of the regular season).

From the handful of teams that have ranked top in all three categories (seeding, momentum and away form) five out of 10 have been promoted. That indicates Huddersfield at [2.76] and Shrewsbury at [3.15] are solid favourites, while Cardiff are well worth considering at [3.95].

The three teams who are up against it on the stats are Nottingham Forest in the Championship, Bournemouth in League One and Stevenage in League Two. All three rank outside the top two in each category and teams with that sort of record have fared poorly - in League Two only two out of 21 have been promoted.

In terms of the first-leg results, the stat that really stands out is the high draw rate in League One (24 out of 42, or 57%). Not surprisingly, there is a strong trend towards under 2.5 goals in League One first legs (71%), as there is in League Two (69%).

The stats on the FA Cup final point to victory for Manchester City (in the Premier League era, the higher-placed team in the league structure has won 14 times out of 18) in 90 minutes (14 of the last 18 finals) and possibly to nil (12 of the 14 winners in 90 minutes have done it that way).

Under 2.5 goals is strongly indicated (13 of the last 18 have had unders).

Recommended bets

Huddersfield to be promoted from League One at [2.76]
Shrewsbury to be promoted from League Two at [3.15]
Draw in Bournemouth v Huddersfield at [3.45]
Draw in MK Dons v Peterborough at [3.45]
Manchester City to win FA Cup final in 90 minutes at [1.93]
Back Under 2.5 goals in FA Cup final at [1.76]

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The Championship Play-Offs Bets: Nottingham Forest v Swansea

Championship / Andrew French / 10 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Forest will be hoping Tudgay can score again and get Forest's chances

"So, I think Forest will edge this first leg – but I believe there is an away goal for the visitors in it, if they go looking for it. The Swans were by no means the highest scorers on the road during the regular season, but they still managed to find the net at least once in 17 of their 23 away games."

History suggests the winner of the first semi-final of the Play-Offs gets promoted so all eyes will be on Thursday's game. These are two evenly matched teams going head-to-head here but Forest should draw first blood, says Andrew French.

If you believe in recent trends, decide who you think will progress from this semi-final and then back them for promotion: in six of the last seven seasons, the Championship Play-Offs have been won by the side that came out on top of the first semi-final.

Much of the outcome of this one depends upon which Nottingham Forest turns up: will it be the side that has won five of its last six games and scored 17 goals in the process? Or will it be the Forest team which before that went nine games without winning, in the process seriously denting their chances of getting this far in the first place?

Forest ended the regular season with four successive wins, although Swansea managed three on the spin of their own.

Despite the Welsh side claiming a notable success at Millwall in their penultimate fixture, it's their patchy away form coupled with Forest's generally impressive home record which makes me want to side with Billy Davies' boys in this first leg.

Prior to winning at The Den, Swansea lost four of their previous five on the road - and two of those defeats came at relegated Preston and Scunthorpe. The Welsh side lost 11 away games, more than any other side in the top eight - and their record away to top-half sides was seven defeats in 10 outings.

The Swans like to build from the back and will not be rushed - I'm not sure they'll be allowed that luxury at The City Ground, especially as Forest will want to erase memories of their home Play-Off leg last season, when Blackpool beat them 4-3.

So, I think Forest will edge this first leg - but I believe there is an away goal for the visitors in it, if they go looking for it. The Swans were by no means the highest scorers on the road during the regular season, but they still managed to find the net at least once in 17 of their 23 away games.

Therefore, I'd be looking at the likes of 2-1 and 3-1 home wins in the Correct Score market, but for a slightly safer bet, I'm suggesting simply backing both teams to score - that is a bet that would have paid out in 65% of Championship Play-Off semi-final first legs during the last 10 seasons.

Best bet: Back Forest to win at [2.38]

Recommended bet: Back both teams to score at [1.9]

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Blue Square Premier Play-Offs: Luton to miss out again

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 04 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jason Walker's Luton could be floored in the Play-Offs once again

"They’re [2.72] favourites to win it again this year despite being bottom in the current form table among the four qualifiers. That places Wimbledon top with five wins and a draw in their last six with their SF opponents Fleetwood in second place and Wrexham third. Simple logic from that. Luton are a lay once again!"

And then there were four. Gary Boswell wonders what effect the last-minute paying of a tax bill will have on Wrexham and tells us why at the current prices, Luton should be opposed once more.

Sports psychologists on standby as we try to work out whether finding that your club has gone the whole season without paying your players' tax and then paying the whole £200k in one big lump with a gun at their head a week before you go into the play-offs is an inspirational or detrimentally distracting phenomenon. As regards getting your club back to the Holy Grail of re-entry into the Football League of course.

Wrexham FC took a big season-long gamble not paying the tax and then only paying it at the eleventh hour faced with unprecedented expulsion from the play-offs, for which they had already qualified. Some are calling foul play even now, declaring that the bill simply would have remained unpaid had Dean Saunders not achieved the fourth place in BSBP with his Red Dragons.

Fait accompli perhaps and all that needs to trouble us is whether or not that acts as a distracter to focus in Thursday night's first leg semi against Luton at the Racecourse, due to be screened live on Premier Sports. Or is the relief of being allowed to play for what you have sweated all season for an extra incentive to perform at optimum?

Wrexham won the league encounter 1-0 and the match odds price of around [2.4] looks backable as once more the Hatters come under scrutiny as the Boz's identified false favourite in a BSBP league competition. They were [3.0] to win the 2010 title before season began and [4.0] to win the 2011 title in August, as well as scorching favourites for last year's play-offs, where they fell at first hurdle.

They're [2.72] favourites to win it again this year despite being bottom in the current form table among the four qualifiers. That places Wimbledon top with five wins and a draw in their last six with their SF opponents Fleetwood in second place and Wrexham third.

Simple logic from that. Luton are a lay once again!

There are two factors to keep in mind if you go down that route, quite apart from the fact that perhaps by keeping themselves up there and in there all the time, the Hatters are bound to succeed sometime. Firstly, they still boast an impressive fan following and that is a plus factor for the most part. Their gate average doubles anybody else in BSBP. It can occasionally be an albatross but is more normally a boon both in financial and psychologically lifting terms. Second for me was the signing of Jason Walker from Barrow part way through this season. The ginger ninja from Flookburgh is a proven big-game match winner and although used sparingly so far by the Hatters, he's had his moments and this for me is his arena and chance to shine. Wembley never phased him in the FA Trophy final last year and something tells me he could be a secret weapon for the Easyjet boys in the coming few games.Gary Brabin is also a manager I expect him to respond. Luton suddenly seem a bit more dangerous than normal for me and it's a more tentative lay this time round.

I do expect the ultimate winner to come from the other semi though between AFC Wimbledon and Fleetwood. Such a tight foursome as always in the Conference Prem play-offs and so much riding on success for all four teams.The league table from their mini league during the season has all teams on eight points so you picks your winner on a hunch and mine is just marginally for Andy Pilley and his Cod Army. Something about what they have done with the ground at Highbury (those plasma screens in the gents did wow me and proved I've been in non league too long!) and how they have prepared to become the next non league team to embrace Football league status. It looks right to me. Money being spent wisely and a new dawn being embraced. The first leg will be a humdinger and the time for young star of the future, Jamie Mullan, to shine.

I take Fleetwood at [4.5] or greater to gain promotion and lay Luton at around [3.0] or shorter.

THE BOZ's RECOMMENDED BETS:

1pt BACK FLEETWOOD to gain PROMOTION to the FOOTBALL LEAGUE at [4.5] or greater

1pt LAY LUTON in the same market at [3.0] or shorter

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