Serie A Previews: Parma and Lazio to end all square

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Edy Reja deserves more recognition for his achievements as Lazio boss

"Lazio haven’t drawn a game since the 21st December, but this even match could produce just that outcome."

Dave Farrar previews this weekend's Serie A action and believes Parma and Lazio will share the spoils, whilst there'll be plenty of goals in Siena to make the 'Overs' bet a decent-price winner.

Parma v Lazio

When these two teams met here on Valentine's Day 2010, Edy Reja was starting his Lazio managerial career after the sacking of the maverick Davide Ballardini. For all of his occasionally difficult relationship with the board at the Olimpico, Reja has done a pretty remarkable job, and his efforts in steering Lazio to third place in the league aren't attracting the credit that they deserve.

Francesco Guidolin will win many awards, but maybe it's Reja who deserves them. Reja's big problem this time at the Tardini is the absence of Miroslav Klose. It's not just the German's 12 goals that have made him key to the team, but the impact that he has on Lazio's all round play. He holds the ball up for energetic runners, and his five match injury absence really couldn't have come at a worse time.

It seems that the line will be led by the veteran Tommaso Rocchi and the low impact new signing Emiliano Alfaro, and even though Parma have been leaky at the back this season, they'll feel that they can keep out a team that needed a late winner to beat Cagliari last week and failed to score against Catania the week before.

Recent history is against Parma, who haven't beaten Lazio here since 2004, but they're priced at [2.68] to get the win here, with Lazio at [3.1] . That seems short enough, as I'm unconvinced by Roberto Donadoni and Parma's struggles in front of goal mean that they're by no means certain to find a way through what might look like a defensive Lazio.

Reja knows that, with games against Napoli and Juventus to come, they could do with three points here to give their end of season push some momentum, but I think that he and Donadoni are likely to be disappointed. Lazio haven't drawn a game since the 21st December, but this even match could produce just that outcome.

Recommendation: Back Draw in Parma v Lazio @ [3.2]

Siena v Udinese

This is one of those odd Serie A fixtures. There's no overwhelming reason why games between Siena and Udinese should produce goals, but since Udinese won 2-0 at the Friuli in 2007 there have been 18 goals in the six matches involving these teams.

If you believe in the theory of reversion to the mean, then you'll be keen to take a look at Under 2.5 Goals which is available at [1.66]. 'Overs' are [2.34], and that seems a little big given the likely nature of the game that we'll see.

Udinese were awful in Palermo last week, but they did well to salvage a point late on, and I think that we'll see the approach that led to that equaliser from the start in Tuscany. Francesco Guidolin's team will play at a high tempo, and Antonio Di Natale will enjoy the space that Siena are likely to give him. He has scored six career goals against them, and could add to that here.

Sice the league resumed in January, five of Udinese's eight away games have featured at least three goals, while four of Siena's seven have done likewise. That makes [2.34] a price that I'm happy to take, and I certainly wouldn't put you off the [2.88] that's available for an Udinese win. They are too good a side, and Guidolin too astute a coach, to simply let their season fizzle out. Over 2.5 Goals though, is the bet.

Recommendation: Back Over 2.5 goals in Siena v Udinese @ [2.34]

Elsewhere this weekend, it will be interesting to see how the top two cope with awkward looking fixtures.

Milan are [1.39] to win the title with Juventus [3.55], and one thing I expect to continue developing is the dominance that both of these teams are showing over the rest of the division.

Juve are at home to Napoli, and I expect them to take advantage of their recent resurgence and put the southerners away at [1.88] while Milan go to Catania, who are performing so well for Vincenzo Montella. Milan are [2.18] to win, and I think that they're a little overpriced.

Too much is being made of Catania's good recent run: they're good, but not in the same league as Milan. Juve and Milan will be worth supporting over coming weeks, but I still feel that the Rossoneri will do just enough to hang onto the title.

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Timeform Irish 1-2-3 Tips: Dorset can send rivals back to Square one

Tipping / Patrick Jupp / 21 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Willie Mullins has an outstanding chance with Dorset Square at Ballinrobe this evening

"Dorset Square is ahead of his mark judged on the pick of his Flat form for John Joseph Murphy, but it's his exploits over hurdles since joining Willie Mullins that really mark him out as being thrown in off an ITC rating of 52, useful and prolific in that sphere."

A mixed card at Ballinrobe provides the Irish action tonight......

Hired Hand can get punters off to a good start in the opening event on the card, a maiden over a mile and three quarters due off at 17:20. A winner over hurdles at Roscommon last week, Hired Hand has also shown Flat form good enough to win most maidens away from the big tracks, a close second at Limerick (met trouble) before surrounded by future winners when fifth at Roscommon. This longer trip is sure to show him in an even better light and he should have too many guns for Fleur de Nuit and Perfect Gemstone.

The handicap over the same course and distance half an hour later is notable for the whole host of potentially well treated dual-purpose performers in the field. In most events of this type a strong case could be made for any one of Hearthstead Dream, Lucky Spring, Apache Drums or Gudnis Gracious Me. However, the presence of Dorset Square means that the aforementioned quartet will probably be playing for minor honours. Dorset Square is ahead of his mark judged on the pick of his Flat form for John Joseph Murphy, but it's his exploits over hurdles since joining Willie Mullins that really mark him out as being thrown in off an ITC rating of 52, useful and prolific in that sphere. He looks banker material from a good draw with Pat Smullen doing the steering.

The closing handicap at 21:00 sees a couple of potentially interesting sorts making their debuts for notably shrewd yards, Manger Hanagment having joined Gordon Elliot and Adropaupep Charles Byrnes. The market will prove a useful tool in assessing the chances of those two runners, but their presence does mean that we could get an attractive price about Jewel In The Sun. A bumper winner at this track last summer, connections adopted a softly-softly approach over hurdles later that year, but Jewel In The Sun's latest fifth at Gowran showed he can be competitive off this mark and he's crying out for this sort of trip, so should give a good account with Nina Carberry back in the saddle.

Recommendations

Back Hired Hand in the 17:20
Back Dorset Square in the 17:50
Back Jewel In The Sun win and place in the 21:00

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Blue Square Premier Play-Offs: Luton to miss out again

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 04 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jason Walker's Luton could be floored in the Play-Offs once again

"They’re [2.72] favourites to win it again this year despite being bottom in the current form table among the four qualifiers. That places Wimbledon top with five wins and a draw in their last six with their SF opponents Fleetwood in second place and Wrexham third. Simple logic from that. Luton are a lay once again!"

And then there were four. Gary Boswell wonders what effect the last-minute paying of a tax bill will have on Wrexham and tells us why at the current prices, Luton should be opposed once more.

Sports psychologists on standby as we try to work out whether finding that your club has gone the whole season without paying your players' tax and then paying the whole £200k in one big lump with a gun at their head a week before you go into the play-offs is an inspirational or detrimentally distracting phenomenon. As regards getting your club back to the Holy Grail of re-entry into the Football League of course.

Wrexham FC took a big season-long gamble not paying the tax and then only paying it at the eleventh hour faced with unprecedented expulsion from the play-offs, for which they had already qualified. Some are calling foul play even now, declaring that the bill simply would have remained unpaid had Dean Saunders not achieved the fourth place in BSBP with his Red Dragons.

Fait accompli perhaps and all that needs to trouble us is whether or not that acts as a distracter to focus in Thursday night's first leg semi against Luton at the Racecourse, due to be screened live on Premier Sports. Or is the relief of being allowed to play for what you have sweated all season for an extra incentive to perform at optimum?

Wrexham won the league encounter 1-0 and the match odds price of around [2.4] looks backable as once more the Hatters come under scrutiny as the Boz's identified false favourite in a BSBP league competition. They were [3.0] to win the 2010 title before season began and [4.0] to win the 2011 title in August, as well as scorching favourites for last year's play-offs, where they fell at first hurdle.

They're [2.72] favourites to win it again this year despite being bottom in the current form table among the four qualifiers. That places Wimbledon top with five wins and a draw in their last six with their SF opponents Fleetwood in second place and Wrexham third.

Simple logic from that. Luton are a lay once again!

There are two factors to keep in mind if you go down that route, quite apart from the fact that perhaps by keeping themselves up there and in there all the time, the Hatters are bound to succeed sometime. Firstly, they still boast an impressive fan following and that is a plus factor for the most part. Their gate average doubles anybody else in BSBP. It can occasionally be an albatross but is more normally a boon both in financial and psychologically lifting terms. Second for me was the signing of Jason Walker from Barrow part way through this season. The ginger ninja from Flookburgh is a proven big-game match winner and although used sparingly so far by the Hatters, he's had his moments and this for me is his arena and chance to shine. Wembley never phased him in the FA Trophy final last year and something tells me he could be a secret weapon for the Easyjet boys in the coming few games.Gary Brabin is also a manager I expect him to respond. Luton suddenly seem a bit more dangerous than normal for me and it's a more tentative lay this time round.

I do expect the ultimate winner to come from the other semi though between AFC Wimbledon and Fleetwood. Such a tight foursome as always in the Conference Prem play-offs and so much riding on success for all four teams.The league table from their mini league during the season has all teams on eight points so you picks your winner on a hunch and mine is just marginally for Andy Pilley and his Cod Army. Something about what they have done with the ground at Highbury (those plasma screens in the gents did wow me and proved I've been in non league too long!) and how they have prepared to become the next non league team to embrace Football league status. It looks right to me. Money being spent wisely and a new dawn being embraced. The first leg will be a humdinger and the time for young star of the future, Jamie Mullan, to shine.

I take Fleetwood at [4.5] or greater to gain promotion and lay Luton at around [3.0] or shorter.

THE BOZ's RECOMMENDED BETS:

1pt BACK FLEETWOOD to gain PROMOTION to the FOOTBALL LEAGUE at [4.5] or greater

1pt LAY LUTON in the same market at [3.0] or shorter

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