Italian Football 
/ Dave Farrar / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment Edy Reja deserves more recognition for his achievements as Lazio boss
"Lazio haven’t drawn a game since the 21st December, but this even match could produce just that outcome."
Dave Farrar previews this weekend's Serie A action and believes Parma and Lazio will share the spoils, whilst there'll be plenty of goals in Siena to make the 'Overs' bet a decent-price winner.
When these two teams met here on Valentine's Day 2010, Edy Reja was starting his Lazio managerial career after the sacking of the maverick Davide Ballardini. For all of his occasionally difficult relationship with the board at the Olimpico, Reja has done a pretty remarkable job, and his efforts in steering Lazio to third place in the league aren't attracting the credit that they deserve.
Francesco Guidolin will win many awards, but maybe it's Reja who deserves them. Reja's big problem this time at the Tardini is the absence of Miroslav Klose. It's not just the German's 12 goals that have made him key to the team, but the impact that he has on Lazio's all round play. He holds the ball up for energetic runners, and his five match injury absence really couldn't have come at a worse time.
It seems that the line will be led by the veteran Tommaso Rocchi and the low impact new signing Emiliano Alfaro, and even though Parma have been leaky at the back this season, they'll feel that they can keep out a team that needed a late winner to beat Cagliari last week and failed to score against Catania the week before.
Recent history is against Parma, who haven't beaten Lazio here since 2004, but they're priced at [2.68] to get the win here, with Lazio at [3.1] . That seems short enough, as I'm unconvinced by Roberto Donadoni and Parma's struggles in front of goal mean that they're by no means certain to find a way through what might look like a defensive Lazio.
Reja knows that, with games against Napoli and Juventus to come, they could do with three points here to give their end of season push some momentum, but I think that he and Donadoni are likely to be disappointed. Lazio haven't drawn a game since the 21st December, but this even match could produce just that outcome.
Recommendation: Back Draw in Parma v Lazio @ [3.2]
This is one of those odd Serie A fixtures. There's no overwhelming reason why games between Siena and Udinese should produce goals, but since Udinese won 2-0 at the Friuli in 2007 there have been 18 goals in the six matches involving these teams.
If you believe in the theory of reversion to the mean, then you'll be keen to take a look at Under 2.5 Goals which is available at [1.66]. 'Overs' are [2.34], and that seems a little big given the likely nature of the game that we'll see.
Udinese were awful in Palermo last week, but they did well to salvage a point late on, and I think that we'll see the approach that led to that equaliser from the start in Tuscany. Francesco Guidolin's team will play at a high tempo, and Antonio Di Natale will enjoy the space that Siena are likely to give him. He has scored six career goals against them, and could add to that here.
Sice the league resumed in January, five of Udinese's eight away games have featured at least three goals, while four of Siena's seven have done likewise. That makes [2.34] a price that I'm happy to take, and I certainly wouldn't put you off the [2.88] that's available for an Udinese win. They are too good a side, and Guidolin too astute a coach, to simply let their season fizzle out. Over 2.5 Goals though, is the bet.
Recommendation: Back Over 2.5 goals in Siena v Udinese @ [2.34]
Elsewhere this weekend, it will be interesting to see how the top two cope with awkward looking fixtures.
Milan are [1.39] to win the title with Juventus [3.55], and one thing I expect to continue developing is the dominance that both of these teams are showing over the rest of the division.
Juve are at home to Napoli, and I expect them to take advantage of their recent resurgence and put the southerners away at [1.88] while Milan go to Catania, who are performing so well for Vincenzo Montella. Milan are [2.18] to win, and I think that they're a little overpriced.
Too much is being made of Catania's good recent run: they're good, but not in the same league as Milan. Juve and Milan will be worth supporting over coming weeks, but I still feel that the Rossoneri will do just enough to hang onto the title.
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