Non-league 
/ Gary Boswell / 04 May 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Jason Walker's Luton could be floored in the Play-Offs once again
"They’re [2.72] favourites to win it again this year despite being bottom in the current form table among the four qualifiers. That places Wimbledon top with five wins and a draw in their last six with their SF opponents Fleetwood in second place and Wrexham third. Simple logic from that. Luton are a lay once again!"
And then there were four. Gary Boswell wonders what effect the last-minute paying of a tax bill will have on Wrexham and tells us why at the current prices, Luton should be opposed once more.
Sports psychologists on standby as we try to work out whether finding that your club has gone the whole season without paying your players' tax and then paying the whole £200k in one big lump with a gun at their head a week before you go into the play-offs is an inspirational or detrimentally distracting phenomenon. As regards getting your club back to the Holy Grail of re-entry into the Football League of course.
Wrexham FC took a big season-long gamble not paying the tax and then only paying it at the eleventh hour faced with unprecedented expulsion from the play-offs, for which they had already qualified. Some are calling foul play even now, declaring that the bill simply would have remained unpaid had Dean Saunders not achieved the fourth place in BSBP with his Red Dragons.
Fait accompli perhaps and all that needs to trouble us is whether or not that acts as a distracter to focus in Thursday night's first leg semi against Luton at the Racecourse, due to be screened live on Premier Sports. Or is the relief of being allowed to play for what you have sweated all season for an extra incentive to perform at optimum?
Wrexham won the league encounter 1-0 and the match odds price of around [2.4] looks backable as once more the Hatters come under scrutiny as the Boz's identified false favourite in a BSBP league competition. They were [3.0] to win the 2010 title before season began and [4.0] to win the 2011 title in August, as well as scorching favourites for last year's play-offs, where they fell at first hurdle.
They're [2.72] favourites to win it again this year despite being bottom in the current form table among the four qualifiers. That places Wimbledon top with five wins and a draw in their last six with their SF opponents Fleetwood in second place and Wrexham third.
Simple logic from that. Luton are a lay once again!
There are two factors to keep in mind if you go down that route, quite apart from the fact that perhaps by keeping themselves up there and in there all the time, the Hatters are bound to succeed sometime. Firstly, they still boast an impressive fan following and that is a plus factor for the most part. Their gate average doubles anybody else in BSBP. It can occasionally be an albatross but is more normally a boon both in financial and psychologically lifting terms. Second for me was the signing of Jason Walker from Barrow part way through this season. The ginger ninja from Flookburgh is a proven big-game match winner and although used sparingly so far by the Hatters, he's had his moments and this for me is his arena and chance to shine. Wembley never phased him in the FA Trophy final last year and something tells me he could be a secret weapon for the Easyjet boys in the coming few games.Gary Brabin is also a manager I expect him to respond. Luton suddenly seem a bit more dangerous than normal for me and it's a more tentative lay this time round.
I do expect the ultimate winner to come from the other semi though between AFC Wimbledon and Fleetwood. Such a tight foursome as always in the Conference Prem play-offs and so much riding on success for all four teams.The league table from their mini league during the season has all teams on eight points so you picks your winner on a hunch and mine is just marginally for Andy Pilley and his Cod Army. Something about what they have done with the ground at Highbury (those plasma screens in the gents did wow me and proved I've been in non league too long!) and how they have prepared to become the next non league team to embrace Football league status. It looks right to me. Money being spent wisely and a new dawn being embraced. The first leg will be a humdinger and the time for young star of the future, Jamie Mullan, to shine.
I take Fleetwood at [4.5] or greater to gain promotion and lay Luton at around [3.0] or shorter.
THE BOZ's RECOMMENDED BETS:
1pt BACK FLEETWOOD to gain PROMOTION to the FOOTBALL LEAGUE at [4.5] or greater
1pt LAY LUTON in the same market at [3.0] or shorter
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