Ashes 4th Test Betting: I might be nuts but I'm backing KP to come good

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Against All Odds: Make a Fortuna by backing goals

Daily Tipping / Paul Robinson / 05 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Hansa Rostock take on Fortuna Dusseldorf in a clash in Germany's Bundesliga Two this evening. Fortuna are expected to win comfortably but Paul Robinson believes the value is in the goal markets.

Hansa Rostock are rock bottom of the league with 20 points from 28 matches. Promoted to this division last season, the excellently named Wolfgang Wolf has seen his side struggle to make an impact at this higher level. They are still in touch though and a win tonight would see them move into 16th place, albeit having played a game more.

After a spell of six matches without victory, Rostock pulled off a shock last time out and defeated 1860 Munchen on their own patch by a goal to nil. Their form at the DKB-Arena doesn't make for good reading though; two wins from 14 so far this campaign and five defeats in the last seven. At least the home fans have seen plenty of goals though as their last few scorelines have read; 1-3, 2-5, 2-2, 4-2, 1-2, 1-5 and 0-1.

Fortuna Dusseldorf lie third in the table after collecting 54 points from their 28 fixtures. Last season's seventh placed side have kicked on this year and are really pushing hard for promotion to the Bundesliga. Things have been derailed slightly in 2012 though as Norbert Meier's men have won just twice in the last 10 games. While they have only lost twice, too many draws have been the problem and it is looking more and more likely that they will have to settle for the play off spot at best. Fortuna have been slightly better on the road though as they've won three of their last seven and have scored at least once in each of those games. Three of their last five have gone over 2.5 goals and with 0-6 and 0-5 wins under their belt this year, they certainly have plenty of firepower when everything clicks.

Both of these teams need to start winning in order to achieve their targets as the season begins to draw to a close so the players should be well up for it and going all out. That usually leads to goals and with under 2.5 trading at [1.92] I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet

Lay Under 2.5 goals in H Rostock v Fortuna Dusseldorf @ [1.92]

Jonno Turner is combining marriage jokes with Danish and Europa League insight in his latest column......

Jonno Turner is mixing the Champions League with the Polish Ekstraklasa for today's picks......

Jonno Turner has found two teams worth backing in the Football League tonight, with Brentford and Birmingham the pair earning his seal of approval......

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Lee Dixon: Backing Newcastle to beat Chelsea is Best

Premier League / Lee Dixon / 02 December 2011 / Leave a Comment

Leon Best hasn't scored too many lately but can get on the scoresheet again on Saturday

"This market has been priced up based on name and reputation rather than facts and recent performances and Newcastle are a great value bet to win at 3.95."

Forget the hype, reputation and star names in Chelsea's line-up. It is Newcastle who are at home, look the more organised side and are carrying the greater momentum, says Lee Dixon.

There's that famous story about Nikita Kruschev's last days in power. I don't know if it's 100% true but it goes something like this.

When he was being removed from power in the USSR, Kruschev handed Leonid Brezhnev two sealed envelopes marked '1' and '2' and instructed him not to open them until things were going badly and he found himself in a political situation that he was unable to get out of. If he did, he should open the first letter. Some years later, the time came and Brezhnev opened the first envelope. Inside was a letter that simply stated "Blame everything on me." - he did and it saved his political career for a while. A few years later he was faced with further problems that he didn't know how to solve. He then opened the second one - which read "Sit down. Write two letters.".

I'm not sure Carlo Ancelotti handed Andre Villas-Boas any letters before clearing his desk at Stamford Bridge and the young Chelsea boss has so far resisted the temptation to blame others rather than himself but I suspect that at the moment he'd welcome some advice as to how to find a solution to Chelsea's problems. Back-to-back defeats to Liverpool in the space of a couple of weeks were sandwiched by a loss away at Bayer Leverkusen that has put them in serious danger of crashing out of the Champions League.

And things may be about to get worse this weekend.

Match Odds

We've waited and waited for Chelsea's fortunes to change but that simply hasn't happened so far. Fernando Torres is yet to find anything like his best form, Didier Drogba hasn't looked his old self either and though John Terry has been making some headlines by scoring goals, neither his performances nor those of David Luiz have impressed when it comes to basic defending.

But let's not make this all about Chelsea. We've also all waited for Newcastle's fortunes to take a turn for the worse but that hasn't happened either. Yes they were out-played away at Manchester City (who hasn't been this season?) but they went to Old Trafford last week and got a draw. Yes, it was a dubious decision for the penalty but these things happen and I think they deserved a point.

This market has been priced up based on name and reputation rather than facts and recent performances and Newcastle are a great value bet to win at [3.95].

Over/Under 2.5 Goals/Correct Score

Opta tell us that Newcastle have kept just one clean sheet in their last nine Premier League matches whilst Chelsea have kept just two in their last nine matches in all competitions. The difference between the two sets of defences is that Newcastle have fielded virtually the same back five all season and don't look like conceding. Chelsea's defenders look like they don't know each other, let alone played with each other and always look like conceding. Either way, the stats suggest we'll have goals here so I'm backing 2-1 Newcastle at [15.0] and over 2.5 goals at [2.06] are the way to go.

To Score

Demba Ba has been the main man for Alan Pardew when it comes to scoring goals. Opta tell us that he's scored 16 goals so far in 2011 and that only Robin van Persie (31) and Wayne Rooney (19) have scored more. I wouldn't put anyone off backing him again but I'm actually going to side with Leon Best on this occasion. He's going through something of a barren spell at the moment but he could be the man to get on the scoresheet here with Chelsea more worried about Ba.

3 pts Back Newcastle to win @ [3.9]
1 pts Back Newcastle to win 2-1 @ [15.0]
2 pts Back Over 2.5 goals @ [2.06]
1 pt back Leon Best to score at anytime @ [4.0]

Michael Cox says:

Daniel Sturridge has scored almost identical goals in Chelsea's last two Premier League matches - moving from a right-wing position into a goalscoring zone to meet a cross from the opposite flank.

I think this is the main area of danger for Newcastle, and the stats back it up - Chelsea attempt 26% of their shots from the right, a higher percentage than any other club. Newcastle are without the suspended Jonas Gutierrez down that side, who does a great defensive job, and with Ryan Taylor very poor against Manchester City a fortnight ago, I think Chelsea will prosper down the right - so Sturridge to open the scoring at [7.5] looks good to me.

Feizal Rahman previews three of Saturday's Premier League fixtures using the Opta stats, and believes goals will be the order of the day as Manchester City look to extend their lead at the top of the table....

After a tricky week with indifferent results in three different competitions, Manchester United should return to winning ways when they travel to Villa Park, a venue that has proved to be a happy hunting ground in recent years......

Gareth Purnell can't make any case for Aston Villa beating Manchester United on Saturday and believes a lay on the home side is a banker selection....

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Michael Vaughan: Broad lifeline means I'm backing England

England Cricket / Michael Vaughan / 30 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Broad celebrates his hat-trick

"Strauss might have thought England were out of it as Yuvraj and Dravid looked set to pile on the runs. However, after Broad's superb hat-trick, the hosts will be feeling buoyant."

Stuart Broad was the star on day two once again - this time with the ball - and ex-England skipper Michael Vaughan is convinced that England can now go on and triumph...

At the end of a great day at Trent Bridge, England's will be the happier dressing room. The Betfair markets may disagree but I'm sticking with the home team to win the second Test.

They've been given a lifeline by Stuart Broad. On day one, he turned England's fortunes around with a superb innings of 64 and, on day two, he changed the course of the game again with Test best bowling figures of 6 for 46. In the space of a fortnight, he's turned his own form around too and now looks far more at ease with himself.

You can back England at [2.78] to win the match, with India [1.87] and an unlikely draw at [9.0]. India may have scored the bigger first innings total and England would have liked to have ended the day with all wickets intact but they are playing with momentum and conviction. They could win the match on day three but a fourth day is more likely and I still see them winning in Monday's final session at [3.55].

Two hours before the close of play, I feared for England and Andrew Strauss might have thought his team were out of it as Yuvraj Singh and Rahul Dravid looked set to pile on the runs. However, after Broad's superb hat-trick, England will be feeling buoyant.

It's now up to the batsman to make the most of the platform that Broad has give them. Jonathan Trott's injury is a big blow - he's going to be sore and will probably not be able to do much more than come in and block - but England must bat 90 overs. If they can do that they will win this match. They should look to make around 270 on Sunday and then let the attack go all out at India on Monday.

So who will get the runs? Ian Bell may relish his chance to perform at number three and Strauss could do with a captain's innings. However, I have a feeling that someone further down the order could come in and succeed with a bold, aggressive innings, similar to the way Broad did on day one. I won't back the Nottinghamshire man though; instead, I'll have a bet on Any Other Batsman at [3.9] because I can see Matt Prior coming in and smashing it.

After that it will be down to England's bowlers. Dravid and Yuvraj showed their class on Saturday but the Indian tail is woefully long, as Broad demonstrated. Mahendra Dhoni is out of sorts with the bat and the gloves and the tourists are lacking leadership. The pitch is a bit of a gremlin too and the bounce is working in England's favour. Put simply, India don't like it and I can't see things improving for them. Game on, England.

Recommended Bets
Back England @ [2.46] 3pts
Back Day Four Evening @ [2.7] in the Test Match End Market 2pts
Back Any Other Batsman @ [3.9] to England Second Innings Top Bat 1pt

Another thrilling day's cricket draws to a close with India on top, but only just. Andrew Hughes has the details of Saturday's play and looks ahead to tomorrow.

It was hard to take your eye off the action on a dramatic opening day to this Second Test. Andrew Hughes brings us up to date with Friday's events and looks ahead to Saturday's action.

The momentum is with England after Monday evening's events and they can go 2-0 when we head to Nottingham, where conditions will assist the bowlers and mean the match is unlikely to go the distance....

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Follow The Money: Everyone's backing Nobody

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 28 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

The team have selected a trio of promising Thursday bets

"With the drop in distance and Frankie Dettori in the saddle, Vicona will have every chance of notching up her first victory today."

Today's Follow The Money come from the meetings at Perth, Hereford and Bath.

We start at Perth in the 15:20, where the punters seem to think Mr Nobody will today become Mr Somebody as he's been backed from [13.68] in to [6.0]. He certainly hasn't been setting the world on fire in his Irish handicap efforts, but definite improvement was seen in his last start. With a big step up in distance to three miles on his preferred better going, it seems the shrewd Tony Martin stable are expecting that to be the catalyst to a big improvement today.

Moving to Hereford for the 15:30, where Big Robert hasn't seen much support moving from [2.58] out to [2.82]. Matt Shepherd's runner was impressive over course and distance last start and any repeat of that performance will put him in the finish. He does however have to contend with a penalty and some stronger looking competition today. When you couple that with his poor strike rate of four wins from 47 starts, it shows he's not known for running up a sequence of wins so could be one to avoid today.

Finally we head to Bath, where in the 16:10, Vicona has seen steady support, coming in to [2.32] from an earlier quote of [3.0]. She showed signs of ability in her maiden at Newbury where it looked like she was in need of the run when fading late on. The experience will no doubt help, and with the drop in distance and Frankie Dettori in the saddle she'll have every chance of notching up her first victory today.

Recommended Bets
Back Mr Nobody @ [6.0] Perth 15:20
Lay Big Robert @ [2.78] Hereford 15:30
Back Vicona @ [2.32] Bath 16:10

Today's Follow The Money movers all come from the meeting at Pontefract....

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Lingfield and Yarmouth....

It's the Follow The Money column and that can only mean two backs and one lay from this busy day of racing....

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Follow The Money: When backing a loser is the way to win

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 01 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Bathwick Brave get round Ffos Las first?

"Putting up a selection (Ballyman) who has yet to win a race under Rules from 15 attempts could be considered the short route to the poorhouse but it should be noted that the rest of this field have landed just four victories from 92 attempts."

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Leicester and Ffos Las.

We start today's column with our negative which runs in the 14.30 at Leicester, a 2 mile handicap chase, in the shape of The Darling Boy who has drifted this morning from [3.15] out to [4.1]. Whilst it is true to say that this five-runner event is anything but competitive, the Tom George stable has not been firing on all cylinders this season. This is reflected by the fact that the stable has achieved just two winners from 64 runners in 2011 and despite The Darling Boy's promising run last time, it is not a surprise to see backers looking elsewhere in this race.

We stay at Leicester for our second bet where, in the 15.35, Ballyman has been the subject of good support, shortening from an initial price of [7.4] in to [5.5]. Putting up a selection who has yet to win a race under Rules from 15 attempts could be considered the short route to the poorhouse but it should be noted that the rest of this field have landed just four victories from 92 attempts. Such is the weak nature of this affair that Ballyman with two seconds, a third and a fourth at this trip from just four efforts, might, in the land of the blind, be king today.

Our final mover comes in the finale at Ffos Las, the bumper at 17:35 where David Pipe's runner, Bathwick Brave, has been backed from [3.65] in to [3.0]. It look like Pipe's gelding will have just the favourite, Sertao, to take on and with the experience of a decent effort when second at Taunton behind him the money suggests that Bathwick Brave will go very close today.

Recommended Bets:
Lay The Darling Boy @ [4.1] Leicester 14.30
Back Ballyman @ [5.5] Leicester 15.35
Back Bathwick Brave @ [3.0] Ffos Las 17.35

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Leicester and Ffos Las....

For today's Follow The Money market movers we go to the cards at Catterick and Plumpton...

You know the drill: two recommended backs and one recommended lay based on early price movements. FTM boys, over to you....

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Champion Chase Betting: There's nothing Folly about backing Woolcombe

Ante-Post Betting / Timeform / 07 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Woolcombe Folly: Has the form to have a big say in the Champion Chase

"Woolcombe Folly’s win at Cheltenham rates as one of the very best handicap performances of the season, and if he repeats it at the Festival he will more than likely place. If he can improve slightly upon that form then it is not at all difficult to envisage him playing an even more significant role."

The Champion Chase could prove to be one of the races of the Festival, with dual winner Master Minded set to have another crack at the one who stole his crown last year, Big Zeb. However, Timeform reckon the value lies elsewhere....

In the aftermath of his narrow defeat of Somersby in the VC Chase at Ascot in January, Master Minded drifted slightly in the ante-post market for the Champion Chase. However, rather than Master Minded running below form, we have taken the view that Somersby put up the sort of top-class performance that he had long promised at Ascot, and in getting the better of him Master Minded produced his best effort on Timeform ratings since announcing himself as the best two-mile chaser around in the 2008 Champion Chase. That sort of form makes Master Minded the clear one to beat ahead of this season's renewal of the Champion, and the rightful market leader at [3.35].

After some uncertainty as to which race would be his Festival target, Somersby has reportedly been confirmed as on track for the Champion Chase rather than the Ryanair. Whether that is the right move is open to question given how well he usually finishes off his races, but nevertheless the fact of the matter is that Somersby has a top-class performance in a two-mile chase to his name, and a reproduction of his VC Chase effort would obviously result in him being right in the mix in the Champion. In both his previous runs over two miles at Cheltenham (in the 2009/10 Arkle and this season's Tingle Creek) Somersby has got outpaced turning for home before staying on strongly up the Hill, and the likelihood is that a real test at the trip will see him at his very best. Strictly judged on form the [8.6] currently available about him for the race is too big, but the doubts raised by his previous efforts over two miles at Cheltenham temper enthusiasm somewhat.

Big Zeb is the reigning Champion Chaser, and he has built up a very solid profile over the last couple of seasons. He met with something of a bump on his road back to Cheltenham when beaten by Golden Silver in the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown at the end of January, but the market has by no means overreacted to that apparent setback, Big Zeb currently a [4.6] shot for the Champion, having been matched to decent money at a low of [4.0]. That lack of significant movement in the market looks justified, as Big Zeb's defeat to Golden Silver represented his best effort of the season on Timeform ratings, and he was only 2 lb below the form he had shown when winning the Champion in 2010. He will head there this time with excellent claims once more, though this year's race will likely take a bit more winning with Master Minded seemingly back to his best and a couple of other pretenders having emerged in the meantime.

Other than Somersby, Woolcombe Folly looks the strongest challenger among last season's novices. Woolcombe Folly won a Grade 2 novice chase at Doncaster on his first start over fences around this time last year, and was swiftly pitched into considerably rougher waters to contest the Arkle on his next start. The Arkle proved too much for Woolcombe Folly as he trailed in last, but the scope remained for him to still do better, and that has emphatically proved the case in two starts this season.

Woolcombe Folly started out 2010/11 with a win off 142 in a two-mile handicap at Ascot in November and built on that the following month when defying a mark of 154 at Cheltenham, in a time that compared very favourably with the one recorded by Master Minded in the Tingle Creek on the same day. Woolcombe Folly's win at Cheltenham rates as one of the very best handicap performances of the season, and if he repeats it at the Festival he will more than likely place. If he can improve slightly upon that form then it is not at all difficult to envisage him playing an even more significant role, so there is certainly a case to be made that the [10.0] currently available about him is on the generous side.

Golden Silver put up a career-best effort when lowering Big Zeb's colours in the Tied Cottage, running to the sort of figure that puts him right among the leading form contenders for the Champion Chase, though he does also have the option of the Ryanair at the Festival. The level of his form entitles Golden Silver to be shorter for both those races, though that is mitigated somewhat by his Cheltenham record, poor effort in the the 2009 Arkle and last season's Champion Chase all he has to show from two visits to Prestbury Park.

Captain Cee Bee is the best of those not yet mentioned, but at [12.0] he looks a very poor price on anything he's done over fences to date. He finished a long way behind Big Zeb and Golden Silver when last seen at Leopardstown over Christmas, and has getting on for a stone to find with the form principals.

Sizing Europe looked like he had the potential to make up into a realistic Champion Chase contender when winning last year's Arkle, but he hasn't quite gone on from that run as might have been hoped. He seemed to see three miles when tried over the trip on his first two starts this season, and ran to a similar standard back at two miles last time when third behind Golden Silver and Big Zeb at Punchestown. That suggests he may have reached his limit over fences, and there isn't a compelling reason why he'll reverse that form.

Recommendation

Back Woolcombe Folly @ [10.0] in the Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival

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Champion Chase Betting: There's nothing Folly about backing Woolcombe

Ante-Post Betting / Timeform / 07 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Woolcombe Folly: Has the form to have a big say in the Champion Chase

"Woolcombe Folly’s win at Cheltenham rates as one of the very best handicap performances of the season, and if he repeats it at the Festival he will more than likely place. If he can improve slightly upon that form then it is not at all difficult to envisage him playing an even more significant role."

The Champion Chase could prove to be one of the races of the Festival, with dual winner Master Minded set to have another crack at the one who stole his crown last year, Big Zeb. However, Timeform reckon the value lies elsewhere....

In the aftermath of his narrow defeat of Somersby in the VC Chase at Ascot in January, Master Minded drifted slightly in the ante-post market for the Champion Chase. However, rather than Master Minded running below form, we have taken the view that Somersby put up the sort of top-class performance that he had long promised at Ascot, and in getting the better of him Master Minded produced his best effort on Timeform ratings since announcing himself as the best two-mile chaser around in the 2008 Champion Chase. That sort of form makes Master Minded the clear one to beat ahead of this season's renewal of the Champion, and the rightful market leader at [3.35].

After some uncertainty as to which race would be his Festival target, Somersby has reportedly been confirmed as on track for the Champion Chase rather than the Ryanair. Whether that is the right move is open to question given how well he usually finishes off his races, but nevertheless the fact of the matter is that Somersby has a top-class performance in a two-mile chase to his name, and a reproduction of his VC Chase effort would obviously result in him being right in the mix in the Champion. In both his previous runs over two miles at Cheltenham (in the 2009/10 Arkle and this season's Tingle Creek) Somersby has got outpaced turning for home before staying on strongly up the Hill, and the likelihood is that a real test at the trip will see him at his very best. Strictly judged on form the [8.6] currently available about him for the race is too big, but the doubts raised by his previous efforts over two miles at Cheltenham temper enthusiasm somewhat.

Big Zeb is the reigning Champion Chaser, and he has built up a very solid profile over the last couple of seasons. He met with something of a bump on his road back to Cheltenham when beaten by Golden Silver in the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown at the end of January, but the market has by no means overreacted to that apparent setback, Big Zeb currently a [4.6] shot for the Champion, having been matched to decent money at a low of [4.0]. That lack of significant movement in the market looks justified, as Big Zeb's defeat to Golden Silver represented his best effort of the season on Timeform ratings, and he was only 2 lb below the form he had shown when winning the Champion in 2010. He will head there this time with excellent claims once more, though this year's race will likely take a bit more winning with Master Minded seemingly back to his best and a couple of other pretenders having emerged in the meantime.

Other than Somersby, Woolcombe Folly looks the strongest challenger among last season's novices. Woolcombe Folly won a Grade 2 novice chase at Doncaster on his first start over fences around this time last year, and was swiftly pitched into considerably rougher waters to contest the Arkle on his next start. The Arkle proved too much for Woolcombe Folly as he trailed in last, but the scope remained for him to still do better, and that has emphatically proved the case in two starts this season.

Woolcombe Folly started out 2010/11 with a win off 142 in a two-mile handicap at Ascot in November and built on that the following month when defying a mark of 154 at Cheltenham, in a time that compared very favourably with the one recorded by Master Minded in the Tingle Creek on the same day. Woolcombe Folly's win at Cheltenham rates as one of the very best handicap performances of the season, and if he repeats it at the Festival he will more than likely place. If he can improve slightly upon that form then it is not at all difficult to envisage him playing an even more significant role, so there is certainly a case to be made that the [10.0] currently available about him is on the generous side.

Golden Silver put up a career-best effort when lowering Big Zeb's colours in the Tied Cottage, running to the sort of figure that puts him right among the leading form contenders for the Champion Chase, though he does also have the option of the Ryanair at the Festival. The level of his form entitles Golden Silver to be shorter for both those races, though that is mitigated somewhat by his Cheltenham record, poor effort in the the 2009 Arkle and last season's Champion Chase all he has to show from two visits to Prestbury Park.

Captain Cee Bee is the best of those not yet mentioned, but at [12.0] he looks a very poor price on anything he's done over fences to date. He finished a long way behind Big Zeb and Golden Silver when last seen at Leopardstown over Christmas, and has getting on for a stone to find with the form principals.

Sizing Europe looked like he had the potential to make up into a realistic Champion Chase contender when winning last year's Arkle, but he hasn't quite gone on from that run as might have been hoped. He seemed to see three miles when tried over the trip on his first two starts this season, and ran to a similar standard back at two miles last time when third behind Golden Silver and Big Zeb at Punchestown. That suggests he may have reached his limit over fences, and there isn't a compelling reason why he'll reverse that form.

Recommendation

Back Woolcombe Folly @ [10.0] in the Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival

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Cheltenham Festival Betting: Make a mint by backing Imperial in the Gold Cup

Tipping / Keith Melrose / 05 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Imperial Commander and Kauto Star look set to cross swords for a third time in the Gold Cup

"With a year on his two main rivals and an excellent record in chases at Cheltenham... Imperial Commander is very much a justified favourite to defend his crown."

The Cheltenham showpiece; jumps racing's Blue Riband; the Gold Cup: whatever you call it, the feature on the last day of the Cheltenham Festival remains the most prestigious race at the most prestigious jumps meeting in the world. With six weeks to go until the big day, Keith Melrose takes a look at the main contenders.

I doubt it's passed you by, but it's worth reiterating that we're going through something of a golden age among the staying chasers. This time last year, we were celebrating how lucky we were to have the prospect of a dual Hennessy winner (Denman) and a bona fide legend of the turf (Kauto Star) toughing it out in the Gold Cup for the third consecutive year. Neither won in the end, but there's no doubting that Imperial Commander gatecrashed the party rather than ruined it, his seven-length beating of Denman almost on a par with Kauto Star's eye-watering performance in accounting for the same rival by thirteen lengths twelve months earlier.

A fragile horse in his younger days, Imperial Commander is still arguably best fresh, which is trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies' justification for sending him to Cheltenham directly from the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November (which he won in pleasing enough fashion from Tidal Bay), though he would apparently have run in the rearranged King George had the entries been opened back up. With a year on his two main rivals and an excellent record in chases at Cheltenham (five from six, including the Paddy Power and Ryanair alongside his Gold Cup triumph), Imperial Commander is very much a justified favourite to defend his crown.

Before his days as a seemingly perennial bridesmaid in the race, Denman was a Gold Cup winner himself, bulldozing his rivals, including an off-colour Kauto Star, into submission when taking the 2008 renewal. Although injury punctuated his campaign the following season, Denman has confirmed himself as good as ever over the last fifteen months, scoring his second Hennessy off top weight and finishing a creditable third from a BHA mark of 182 in the latest renewal of that race either side of his finishing runner-up to Imperial Commander. He is another who'll reportedly head straight to Cheltenham after his main autumn target, though with a solid record fresh Denman should have no fitness concerns and there seems no reason why he can't put up a bold show on his fourth attempt at the Gold Cup.

Ream upon ream of speculation and pontification has surrounded Kauto Star since he was foiled in his attempt to win a fifth consecutive King George last month, so there's little that this piece can offer which hasn't been said already. We really don't buy the excuse that Cheltenham suits Kauto Star better than Kempton these days but, if as suggested, infection was behind his reverse at Kempton, then current odds of [9.2] could prove tempting nearer the time, as the only member of Timeform House's editorial staff who can remember a better chaser will be drawing his pension in just over a year's time!

If any horse is to infiltrate the 'Big Three', then the figures dictate that Long Run is easily the most likely candidate. The Nicky Henderson-trained French bred put up a highly impressive performance in winning this season's King George VI Chase, producing a much-improved round of jumping to beat stablemate Riverside Theatre by twelve lengths. The manner in which Long Run has jumped on both tries around Cheltenham leaves some doubt, while he's still got something to find on Imperial Commander, Denman and a peak-condition Kauto Star, so the feeling is he's already short enough in the betting at [7.8].

The rest all have plenty to find on form, and the current prices of Pride of Dulcote [18.0] and Midnight Chase [25.0] in particular are pretty difficult to fathom with that considered, but if one is capable of bridging the gap we think it could be Diamond Harry. This corner of West Yorkshire has always been a stronghold of Diamond Harry support, right from his novice hurdling days, but even we've had to temper our enthusiasm from time to time in the face of the quirks he's displayed. Good things come to those who wait, however, and Nick Williams' charge finally revealed some of his latent talent when landing the Hennessy in November, jumping with aplomb and coping easily with Denman's turning up the pace (albeit in receipt of 26 lb) to beat Burton Port despite idling. With such a good record fresh and the prospect of more to come, Diamond Harry is a credible contender for top honours, though the odds of [11.0] currently on offer suggest we're by no means alone in that assertion.

If we learned anything from Festival Trials Day and Grands Crus' blistering performance in the Cleeve Hurdle, it's that there's no such thing as a 'banker' for a Festival Grade 1 with six weeks still to go. That said, such is the quality among the current crop of staying chasers that it's hard to envisage many permeating the upper echelons of the division, and those with the potential to do so have already had as much factored into their price. Therefore, we see no reason to look past Imperial Commander, who looks set to have everything in his favour as he bids for a second Gold Cup. We also think there is some value to be had about Denman, whose suitability to the course and colossal stature among his contemporaries are both assured.

Recommendations

Back Imperial Commander @ [4.9] and Denman @ [9.4] to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

There's a good quality card at Leopardstown in Ireland, but Musselburgh also features a couple of really interesting contests, including the Scottish Triumph Hurdle......

Timeform run the rule over the next week's racing, which starts with an all-star card at Leopardstown on Sunday and ends with another at Newbury on Saturday......

The Irish Hennessy meeting at Leopardstown is the last stepping stone before the Cheltenham Festival for many leading ante-post fancies from across the Irish Sea and the four Grade 1 events on the card all promise to be high-class renewals....

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