Premier League Stats: Clean sheet crucial for Moyes' Everton

"Liverpool, then, score in 75% of derbies and, when they do, their win rate is 80%."

Andrew Atherley explains why a clean sheet is crucial if Everton want to win the Merseyside Derby, and why Liverpool don't lose when they score in this fixture...

Everton are the best team on Merseyside but to prove it in Sunday's derby game they might well have to break one of the most intriguing result patterns in English football.

It is a rare occurrence for Everton to have bragging rights, whether in the derby games or overall in terms of league position. Yet they finished above Liverpool in last season's Premier League table - for only the second time in the 10 full seasons since David Moyes took charge at Goodison Park - and they are even further ahead this season.

When it comes to the derby matches, however, Moyes's Everton have struggled to match their red rivals. In 20 Premier League derbies under Moyes, Everton have won just three and lost 12. That includes a pair of defeats last season, by an aggregate of 5-0, even when Liverpool were comparatively struggling.

But that's not the most interesting part of the results pattern. The remarkable thing is that the derby results divide neatly into two segments: matches in which Everton kept a clean sheet and those in which Liverpool scored. When Everton have kept a clean sheet in a league derby under Moyes, which is a fairly rare occurrence, their record is won three and drawn two out of five.

Whenever Everton have conceded, though, their win chance has gone west across the Irish Sea. Liverpool's record when scoring against Moyes's team is won 12, drawn three and lost none out of 15.

Liverpool, then, score in 75% of derbies and, when they do, their win rate is 80%.

Pretty compelling statistics that indicate a simple starting point when assessing Sunday's game: do you think Liverpool will score?

In recent seasons, it's been a fairly simple question to answer - hence Liverpool's strong derby record. This season, Liverpool's scoring record has been more hit and miss than usual - three blanks in their first eight Premier League games.

But it is worth noting that the only team to have conceded against Brendan Rodgers' Liverpool and beaten them in the Premier League is Manchester United, with a 2-1 win at Anfield (both United goals were scored after Liverpool were reduced to 10 men). The rest of Liverpool's record when scoring is won two, drawn two.

Everton, meanwhile, still rely on a clean sheet for their best results. They have won only two of the five Premier League games in which they have conceded this season and those were against bottom-four sides Aston Villa and Southampton.

Against the elite sides, Moyes clearly understands the importance of a clean sheet. Since the start of last season, Everton have won four out of 13 against the big six - all to nil - and have taken only one point from the nine games in which they have conceded.

That helps to explain why so many Everton v big six matches have under 2.5 goals (10 out of 13 since the start of last season, including all seven at Goodison Park). Under 2.5 Goals must appeal on Sunday at 1.9310/11.

As usual, then, there is more form available than a straight reading of the league table. What we have in Everton is a generally low-scoring side - especially against the better teams - that puts great faith in clean sheets, while on the other side are Liverpool with a decent scoring record even now and a good win rate when they do find the net.

Liverpool to win at 2.915/8 or off 0 on the Asian handicap at 1.991/1 have to be considered.

If Liverpool score, the stats say they will be hard to beat. The last time the Reds scored in a league derby and lost was way back in November 1995 - no wonder Moyes sets so much store in clean sheets.

Pick of the stats

Chelsea v Manchester United
Since Jose Mourinho left Chelsea, nine of the 12 domestic meetings between these sides have had over 2.5 goals.

Southampton v Tottenham
Seven of Southampton's eight games have had over 3.5 goals

Recommended Bets

Liverpool off 0 on Asian handicap v Everton at 1.991/1
Chelsea v Manchester United over 2.5 goals at 1.758/11

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Premier League Results: Arsenal drop crucial points in title race

Premier League / Maxliu / 05 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Arsene Wenger shows his frustration as Arsenal waste another chance

"The Gunners' ttile odds are out to [3.6] following the draw, which traded at [5.8], and if they do fail to win the league they may look back on the chances they spurned today and wince."

Wenger left to rue missed chances as Arsenal blow opportunity to close gap. Meanwhile, Hammers happy for second time in a week and Duff leaves Blackburn's safety looking dodgy...

Arsenal missed the chance to make ground on Manchester United at the top of the Premier League as they drew 0-0 with Sunderland at the Emirates Stadium.

The Gunners' title odds are out to [3.6] following the draw, which traded at [5.8], and if they do fail to win the league they may look back on the chances they spurned today and wince.

West Ham are out of the relegation zone after they traded at [2.58] on their way to a consecutive win at home ton Stoke. The Hammers were 2-0 at half-time before Thomas Hitzlsperger rewarded over 2.5 goal backers late on to make it 3-0.

Blackburn could soon be replacing the Hammers in the drop zone after they lost again, going down 3-2 away to Fulham. In a lively, hard fought contest, Damien Duff was twice on target for the Cottagers against his old club.

Bolton beat Aston Villa by the same scoreline at the Reebok Stadium where Ashley Young missed a crucial second-hald penalty. Gary Cahill scored twice for Wanderers before Ivan Klasnic came off the bench to get the winner late on. Bolton were backed at 21.0.

Everton picked up a valuable three points away to Newcastle. Leon Best gave the Geordies the lead in the first half but the Toffees hit back through Leon Osman and Phil Jagielka put them ahead. That's how the scores remained and 2-1 was matched at [16.0].

In the day's early kick-off, West Brom stunned Birmingam with a ferocious second half performance. The teams went in 0-0 at half-time but Roy Hodgson rallied his men and the Baggies, who touched [4.5], took the intiative, winning 3-1. James Morrison's 20-yard thunderbolt was the pick of the goals.

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Jonathan Wilson: Crucial night for teams from the East

Jonathan Wilson / Jonathan Wilson / 23 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Rubin Kazan are one of a number of Russian teams in action tonight

"If Spartak's young side clicks into some kind of consistency, the [48.0] on offer for them to win the tournament looks extremely generous... "

Jonathan Wilson looks at a clutch of Europa League ties which involved refreshed sides from Eastern Europe who could cause a few surprises...

The theory of the winter break runs as follows. The sides whose effective playing seasons run from March to November (that is, most of Scandinavia, Russia and Ukraine, even if they declare their champion in June) tend to struggle in the autumn as fatigue takes its toll and they play sides from elsewhere in Europe who are at the peak of their fitness a couple of months into their season.

Conversely, come the spring, once they have shaken off the rustiness of three months without playing competitive football, they are fresh and enjoy the same advantage over the rest of Europe that the rest of Europe enjoys in the autumn. That is why eastern European teams have tended comparatively to underperform in the group stages of the Champions League, and to overperform once they have reached the knockout phase of the Europa League.

The 2005 champions CSKA Moscow - [16.0] to win the Europa League - became the first side through when they beat PAOK on Tuesday, while Metalist Kharkiv are almost certainly out after their 4-0 first leg defeat to Bayer Leverkusen [16.5]. For other sides from the east, though, tonight's matches are crucial.

Despite losing the first leg against Young Boys 2-1 in Bern, Zenit St Petersburg are strong favourites to make it through tonight. They are [1.35] to win the leg and are [11.5] fourth-favourites for the Europa League itself behind Manchester City [5.8], Porto [7.8] and Liverpool [8.0]. They were highly impressive winners of the Russian League last season, and won all six of their Europa League group matches, but they will be without the forwards Aleksandr Kerzhakov and Aleksandr Bukharov, the winger Vladimir Bystrov and the defenders Tomas Hubocan and Nicolas Lombaerts.

The goalkeeper Vyacheslav Malofeev , though, seems not merely confident, but keen to get playing competitively again after the winter. "We are finally home after some long training camps and have been relaxing with our families and friends, so we are in a good mood," he said. "We have put the loss in Bern behind us. We are ready. We just need to score as many as possible and everything will be fine."

Spartak Moscow also face Swiss opposition, but with an advantage from their first leg in Basel, where they came from 2-0 down to win with a late striker from the brilliant Georgian teenager Jano Ananidze.

Spartak are [1.97] to win the game, with a draw [3.7]. Spartak have lost five of their last seven home games in Europe, but they feel an understandable frustration at their failure to progress from the Champions League group having begun so well, and if their young side clicks into some kind of consistency, the [48.] on offer for them to win the tournament looks extremely generous, even with a view to trading out in the last four.

The other Russian side in the competition, Rubin Kazan, are surely out after a limp 2-0 home defeat to Twente in the first leg. They are [12.0] to go through, but there was little sign of them having the sort of firepower that would bring them the goals they need to mount a comeback. Alejandro Dominguez and Bukharov both left last year, and neither has really been replaced.

Dynamo Kyiv beat Besiktas 4-1 in Istanbul, and will surely complete the job at home as they readjust to life under Yury Semin. BATE Borisov have a chance of progression [6.0] after a 2-2 draw against PSG in Belarus, but it would require them to end the French side's 13-game unbeaten run in European competition, or to secure a high-scoring draw.

If they are to eliminate Liverpool, Sparta Prague's task - either a scoring draw or a win at Anfield - is only slightly less formidable, and they are [4.1] to progress after a 0-0 draw in the first leg. Lech Poznan's unlikely success story, though, goes on. They may only be two points above the relegation zone in the Polish league, but having beaten Manchester City and eliminated Juventus in the group stage, they take a 1-0 lead to Braga and are [1.75] to go through.

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