Champions League 
/ James Eastham / 05 April 2011 / Leave a Comment 
England team-mates Wayne Rooney and John Terry will take part in a key battle
"Chelsea have only this competition to focus on, but is that reason enough to justify their favouritism considering United have played the better football over the season as a whole?"
The value lies with opposing the Blues in the all-English Champions League quarter-final on Wednesday night, writes James Eastham.
Introduction
Rio Ferdinand has an outside chance of being fit. Should he be unavailable, Chris Smalling will continue alongside Nemanja Vidic.
Fabio is expected to start at right-back. Rafael, John O'Shea and Wes Brown are all missing. Darren Fletcher has a virus. Anderson is likely to be on the bench. Michael Carrick should partner Paul Scholes in central midfield.
For Chelsea, the main decision is whether Fernando Torres or Didier Drogba will play up front. Nicolas Anelka, the Blues' top scorer in the competition, is expected to start.
Match Odds
Chelsea's excellent recent home record against Manchester United makes it difficult to oppose the hosts: the Blues have won six and drawn four of their last 10 meetings in a run stretching back nine years.
But such periods of statistical excellence end eventually, and this could be the night. I certainly wouldn't recommend backing Chelsea to win at [2.2]. For me, there's no reason why they should be clear favourites against a United side that has played better football for most of the season, and will be smarting from what they perceive as the injustice of their 2-1 defeat at Stamford Bridge in the league last month. The draw is [3.3], with United [3.95] to win. I'd recommend laying Chelsea at [2.24] or backing the draw.
Under/Overs
Going into the game, the general feeling among most observers is the two sides will cancel each other out because they know each other so well. Chelsea know that conceding an away goal will be fatal, and United will want to be level at least going into the second leg.
It's no surprise under 2.5 goals is the short-priced favourite of two at [1.67], yet recent clashes at Stamford Bridge have been higher-scoring than most people would imagine: five of the last 10 games have had over 2.5 goals. With United below full-strength at the back, I wouldn't completely rule out over 2.5 goals, but there's not enough evidence for me, even at a tempting price of [2.46].
To Qualify
I'm surprised to see United underdogs (albeit slightly) to reach the semi-finals from this tie. Yes, Chelsea have only this competition to focus on, which might give them extra motivation, but is that reason enough to justify their favouritism considering United have played the better football over the season as a whole?
I'd say United were slight favourites, given they have fewer tactical and personnel issues to worry about going into this crucial tie, and have been the better team over the past six to seven months. Chelsea are currently trading at [1.86] to reach the last four, with United [2.14]. I'd back Sir Alex Ferguson's side.
Correct Score
Those expecting a close, tight contest should consider a range of correct-score options. The 0-0 and 1-1 draws will attract plenty of attention at [8.8] and [7.2] respectively, with a 1-0 Chelsea win [7.4]. I prefer the draws, and would also have a look at a 2-1 away victory. That's [15.0] if, like me, you believe United have the quality to nick a win.
Top Stat: Manchester United are unbeaten away from home in this season's competition (W3-D1-L0)
Best Bet: Lay Chelsea @ [2.24]
Other Recommended Bet: Back Man Utd to qualify @ [2.14].
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