Champions League 
/ Michael Cox / 15 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Theo Walcott's pace should once again give Maxwell plenty to think about
"In addition, the fact that both sides will play high defensive lines increases the chances of a straight red card for denying a clear goalscoring opportunity. Laurent Koscielny, Sebastien Squillaci and Bacary Sagna have all been dismissed so far this season in these circumstances, whilst Puyol was dismissed for a last man foul in this fixture last season."
This was a cracking match when these two played last year in the very same competition and we could have another really good game this time round. How are the teams likely to line up, where will the game be won and lost and which are the best bets, asks Michael Cox.
An exciting clash between two great footballing sides. After last year's superb tie, where Arsenal came back from a first half battering to draw 2-2 in the first leg before being destroyed by Lionel Messi in Spain, few would have been disappointed to see the sides being drawn together once again.
There will be few surprises in the line-ups. Arsene Wenger will use a 4-2-3-1 system, with the major concern being the fitness of Samir Nasri, who has been out recently with a hamstring injury. Wenger says he won't take a 'crazy gamble' with the Frenchman's fitness, but Nasri looks likely to start on the left of Arsenal's attacking three, meaning Andrei Arshavin will drop to the bench despite a slight resurgence in his form over the past couple of weeks.
Pep Guardiola will continue with his 4-3-3 formation. His major injury problem is captain Carles Puyol, who is definitely out. This is something of a worry for Barca, because it means Eric Abidal will have to play at centre-back rather than at left-back, where Guardiola would have wanted to use his pace up against Theo Walcott. Instead, it looks like being Maxwell at left-back, the man who was terrorised by Walcott towards the end of last year's first leg. Walcott clearly has the beating of the Brazilian in terms of pace, and a booking wouldn't be a huge surprise in this contest.
On the subject of cards, this match might see the referee reaching for his pocket more than one might expect. Neither Barcelona or Arsenal are overly physical sides, but both will look to close down the opposition quickly and prevent them from playing. "We've got to change our game a bit to play against Barcelona", Jack Wilshere said yesterday. "We'll learn from last year. We need to be a bit nasty with them and get the ball back."
In addition, the fact that both sides will play high defensive lines increases the chances of a straight red card for denying a clear goalscoring opportunity. Laurent Koscielny, Sebastien Squillaci and Bacary Sagna have all been dismissed so far this season in these circumstances, whilst Puyol was dismissed for a last man foul in this fixture last season. Backing a sending off at around [4.5] is a decent price, especially as there have been three red cards in the previous five meetings between these two clubs.
Barcelona will try and exploit Arsenal's high line, possibly by playing Lionel Messi as a deep-lying forward, and then pushing David Villa and Pedro Rodriguez higher up the pitch to make runs through the defence. That was what Guardiola did last time he faced an opponent, Espanyol, playing a high line, and the 5-0 thrashing of Real Madrid was not a dissimilar situation. Therefore, Messi might be less likely to score than usual, with Villa and Pedro the ones to watch.
Betting on corners is a tricky one to call for this match. In the fixture last year, just four corners were awarded (all to Barcelona), and the ball is likely to spend a lot of time in the centre of midfield in this game. However, Arsenal will probably have more of the play, and this year they have Walcott, who will look to go down the line more, whereas last season Wenger started Nasri and Arshavin, both looking to come into the centre of the pitch. A good case can be made for 9 or less corners at [2.0] but there are better bets.
With two such attacking sides, betting on goals might be a more interesting topic. Many Champions League ties take a while to settle down, with a tense, tactical battle unfolding, and the first leg serving as something of a starter for the second match.
However, Barcelona started this fixture extremely strongly last year, and Arsenal will be keen to begin more authoritatively this time around. As a result, it wouldn't be a surprise to see a goal in the first ten minutes - you can get odds of around [4.8] for that.
Recommended bets:
A sending off at [4.5]
0 - 10 minutes in First Goal Odd at [4.8]
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