Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Handicappers' Corner: Age is just a number!

Handicappers' Corner RSS / Phil Turner / 22 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Kauto Star claimed a memorable win in the Betfair Chase.

Kauto Star claimed a memorable win in the Betfair Chase.

"Kauto Star’s winning rating of 178 is the highest he’s posted for any of his four Haydock wins..."

There is only one place to start from the weekend's racing - Kauto Star rolling back the years to claim a memorable fourth win in the Betfair Chase at Haydock...

Amid all the euphoria which followed that performance, both from ecstatic racegoers at the Merseyside track on Saturday and the verbose response of newspaper sports' columnists, what shouldn't be overlooked is that the field for the 2011 Betfair Chase was arguably the strongest since this valuable prize was launched in 2005. Indeed, Kauto Star's winning rating of 178 is the highest he's posted for any of his four Haydock wins, having run to 170 in 2006 (when admittedly scoring with stacks in hand), 169 in 2007 and 175 in 2009. (For the record, he'd probably have a fifth Betfair Chase win to his name but for unseating at the last in 2008, for which he was awarded a rating of 162).

Of course, Kauto Star's current rating of 178 is still 13lb shy of his peak Timeform figure, which was awarded after his fourth King George VI Chase at Kempton in 2009/10 and is the highest rating awarded to a jumper since the days of Arkle. In addition, Haydock runner-up Long Run still leads the way with us amongst the staying chase division, his rating having been adjusted to 180 (the bare figure he ran to when winning last season's King George) on the back of his reappearance defeat. It seems safe to assume that Nicky Henderson's six-year-old wasn't at his very best on Saturday, a view backed up by the fact he didn't travel with the same fluency as usual (several mid-race mistakes didn't help), but he stuck to his task most willingly and remains the most likely winner of the King George VI Chase in our opinion - he did, after all, beat Kauto Star fair and square at both Kempton and Cheltenham last term.

The next two home at Haydock, Weird Al (168) and Diamond Harry (165), both emerged with credit too, the former running up the form of his Charlie Hall win, whilst the latter gelding ultimately shaped as if the outing was just needed and clearly retains all the ability which saw him land the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury on his sole 2010/11 outing. The early signs would seem to suggest that fifth-placed Time For Rupert (162) isn't going to develop into a genuine Cheltenham Gold Cup contender, but he's probably better judged on his reappearance second to Weird Al and would take plenty of beating off a BHA mark of 156 if connections opt to try him in valuable handicap company.

The Betfair Chase wasn't the only prestigious graded race to take place on Saturday, with Master Minded (171) completing a memorable day for his connections by landing a second successive Amlin 1965 Chase at Ascot. In truth, Master Minded hasn't just lived in the shadow of his stable-companion Kauto Star in recent years but also his own reputation, notably that runaway win (with a rating of 179) in the 2008 Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham when just a five-year-old. Although Master Minded has won no less than ten times since then - namely seven Grade 1 wins and three Grade 2 wins - but he's never run to a bare figure higher than 171 during that period, which leaves him with a bit to find against Long Run and Kauto Star should he meet them in Kempton's Boxing Day showpiece.

The longer trip isn't certain to suit Master Minded either, and he may even struggle to confirm Ascot placings with old rival Somersby (166), who shaped quite well on Saturday and seems likely to be suited by the step-up to three miles. Medermit (154) seemed to have his limitations exposed in third, which wasn't really the boost in form that supporters of Captain Chris (163p) were hoping for, that gelding having been forced to miss Ascot after working badly earlier in the week.

By contrast, Hurricane Fly (174) saw his reputation grow despite also being forced to sidestep his intended reappearance at the weekend after not pleasing Willie Mullins in his preparatory work. Oscar Whisky (third), Thousand Stars (fourth) and Overturn (seventh) were among those left firmly in Hurricane Fly's wake in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham last March, yet that trio have done plenty for the form since. Overturn (163) and Oscar Whisky (171) were set to stage a grandstand finish to the Ascot Hurdle on Saturday only for the latter gelding (who was conceding 8lb) to crash out at the last, whilst Thousand Stars (163) proved a very capable deputy for stable-companion Hurricane Fly with a convincing defeat of one of last season's leading novice hurdlers Oscars Well (152) in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown on Sunday.

Dynaste (157+) may be contesting graded races himself over the coming months following his impressive eight-length success in the very valuable betfair.com/paulnicholls Fixed Brush Handicap Hurdle at Haydock, a race his stable landed with another up-and-coming grey Grands Crus twelve months earlier. It may be stretching things to think that Dynaste will emulate that gelding by developing into a top-class performer, but it's worth noting that the rating he ran to on Saturday is of a similar standard to that his illustrious stable companion posted in 2010. As usual, this race attracted a healthy quota of runners better known for their exploits over fences nowadays and several shaped well, notably runner-up Benny Be Good (h143/c150) and seventh-placed Sunnyhillboy (h141/c142), who'll both warrant plenty of respect in valuable handicap company if reverted to fences this winter.

Exciting though it was, The Breeders' Cup promised more than it delivered and needs to look to its laurels. Simon Rowlands considers the event from a rating point of view, in a week which also featured the Melbourne Cup and some good jumps action......

Form rather than hype, substance over style, achievement more than potential. That has long been the Timeform mantra, but this weekend's best Flat action provided an exception. Timeform Flat handicapper David Johnson explains....

It's had its knockers but, with Ascot bathed in autumn sunshine and high-quality fields for all five pattern races, few can argue that British Champions Day was anything but a resounding success. David Johnson reflects on the results from a ratings perspective......

Future Champions Day was the highlight of the racing in Europe this weekend, but, with neither the Middle Park nor Dewhurst producing a commanding winner, it's most unlikely that Timeform's Champion two-year-old was in action. We may, however, still have seen a top-class colt, as David Johnson reveals....


Play Casino & Poker here

No comments:

Post a Comment