Timeform Radio Tip 
/ Rory Delargy / 22 November 2011 / 1 Comments 
Jumps action at Lingfield
"While Goat Castle was often found making a mistake or two over hurdles, he is sure to have been well schooled for his debut over fences, and a repeat of the consistent level of form he’s been showing over the smaller obstacles will see him go very close."
Jumps racing at Lingfield is an all too rare treat for Rory Delargy, who picks two bets from the card at the Surrey track ahead of a punditry stint with host Gina Bryce on Timeform Radio
The race which has the best betting feel to it today is the 14:20 at Lingfield. This underused circuit is always popular with diehard chasing fans, as it provides a fair test of both jumping and stamina, with plodders often struggling round the track's sharper sections, but short runners tending to get caught out in the straight with its three fences and longish run-in.
This 2m chase features several with questions to answer. Al Amaan spurned a good opportunity with a suspect attitude last time, while Tim Vaughan's new recruit Bankstair can be a weak finisher. Chestnut Ben appears to need the mud to show his form, and course winner Rosoff often looks unwilling. And with Royaume Bleu coming off a heavy fall last time, we're fast running out of options.
Luckily chasing debutant Goat Castle makes plenty of appeal. Nigel Twiston-Davies has an excellent record when switching his handicapper from hurdles to fences - in the last five full calendar years, he's sent out 15 winners from 82 runners who were making the switch from handicap hurdle to handicap chase for a healthy profit.
While Goat Castle was often found making a mistake or two over hurdles, he is sure to have been well schooled for his debut over fences, and a repeat of the consistent level of form he's been showing over the smaller obstacles will see him go very close. He's versatile enough tactically, but is likely to be ridden prominently, which will be a positive in a race made up predominantly by hold-up performers.
Bankstair, until recently a stablemate of the selection, is the obvious danger having moved to Tim Vaughan, but the improvement which the Welsh handler often finds with others' cast-offs isn't always in evidence at the first time of asking.
In the 15:20 Wide Receiver bids to defy the handicapper again, having won twice in easy fashion at Wetherby this autumn. The Charlie Longsdon-trained gelding has been raised a total of 34lb for those successes, but simply seems to have badly underestimated by the handicapper having gone the wrong way for Charlie Morlock.
He was never in the slightest danger of defeat when slamming Ngong Hills last time, and his latest hike in the ratings is fully justified. I respect a couple of his rivals, notably Goring One and Monbeg Dude, but the former is trying the trip for the first time and may not be allowed to dominate. I'm inclined to have a saver on the latter - a big, chasing type who's looked a little cumbersome in bumpers/over hurdles, but has been marking waiting to tackle fences, and is worthy of respect.
Recommended Bets
Back Goat Castle @ [4.8] in the 14:20 Lingfield (NAP)
Back Wide Receiver @ [5.8] in the 15:20 Lingfield (NB)
Graham Cunningham is our Timeform Radio pundit today - here are his two selections at Ludlow...
Timeform Radio pundit Andrew Sheret find a couple of promising runners on an afternoon of slim pickings......
Plenty of strong runners are in action at Haydock on Saturday but Jeremy Grayson believes he's found two that can reward backers......
No comments:
Post a Comment