BNP Paribas Masters 2014 Betting: Raonic's superb tie break form to continue against Berdych

"Each of their last two meetings featured a set one tie break and unless one succumbs to scoreboard pressure or has a poor service game it seems likely again today."

Back Raonic to win set one 7-6 at 6.5n/a

It's semi final Saturday at the BNP Paribas Masters and after landing a big-priced winner yesterday, Sean Calvert is back with his selections for today...

It was a profitable day of tennis betting on Friday at the BNP Paribas Masters nice and early when Kevin Anderson won the opener of his match against Tomas Berdych.

My 3.7511/4 chance landed when Anderson won set one on the tie break and that proved to be the right wager to side with the South African in, as he rather predictably went on to lose from a break up in the decider.

That meant that Berdych qualified for the World Tour Finals and also qualified on the day were Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic, who surprisingly defeated Roger Federer in straight sets.

We start at 1.30pm UK time on Saturday, with an intriguing fourth career meeting between Berdych and Raonic.

This pair met here last year in the third round, when Berdych was a 7-6, 6-4 winner, but Raonic was a winner in the two before that and is a 1.845/6 favourite today.

Both players should be a fair bit more relaxed today having qualified for the O2 and as the odds suggest it's a tight one to call, with the winner likely to be the one who serves the better.

Raonic was very good yesterday against Federer in arguably the performance of his career, hitting 21 aces and winning 65 percent of points on his second serve - stats that will surely see him win today if he manages to repeat them.

Berdych has been scratchy all week, doing just enough each round to get through and not impressing in any of them, so I'm leaning towards the Canadian in this one.

The Czech may well show better form with the pressure of O2 qualification behind him though and it could pay to go with a tie break opening set here at a bigger price.

Raonic is much more likely to win it if it does reach a breaker, with Berdych weighing in with a really poor 9-16 (36%) win mark in tie breaks this year and he's lost the two he's played in Bercy this week.

Milos has been very good in breakers this week, winning all three and holding a 39-12 (76%) win mark in them in 2014.

Each of their last two meetings featured a set one tie break and unless one succumbs to scoreboard pressure or has a poor service game it seems likely again today.

The 6.5n/a that's available about a 7-6 set one win for Raonic looks the one here, or the 1.845/6 about the Canadian winning for more circumspect punters is the other option.

Recommended Bet
Back Raonic to win set one 7-6 at 6.5n/a

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Cross-Sport Multiple: Back Smith's Saddlers on Saturday

"Walsall flirted with the play-offs last season and remain a side with potential, as they showed in holding Bristol City to a draw and beating Preston 3-1 earlier in the campaign."

Andrew Hughes thinks Walsall will return from Nottingham with all three points this weekend and help to land another cross-sport multiple in the process. 

Bet 1: Back Walsall to beat Notts County at 2.68/5

After keeping Notts County up in his first season at the club, Shaun Derry has been working wonders on the Trent in recent weeks. The Magpies are flying after five consecutive victories and are up to fourth in League One. 

But that run will come to an end on Saturday against Walsall. Dean Smith's side have often lacked a striker to turn their possession into goals, but the return of Tom Bradshaw last weekend helped them to a hard-fought win over Chesterfield and they look a much more dangerous team with the former Shrewsbury striker on the pitch.

Walsall flirted with the play-offs last season and remain a side with potential, as they showed in holding Bristol City to a draw and beating Preston 3-1 earlier in the campaign. It's also worth noting that County's five recent wins all came against teams in the bottom half. Back the Saddlers to upset the odds in Nottingham.  

Bet 2: Back Munster to beat Cardiff at 1.538/15

Cardiff should go into this game with some confidence after recording back to back victories over Grenoble and Rovigo in the European Challenge Cup, but I expect normal service to resume when they return to Pro12 action on Saturday. 

The Blues have won just one of their six games so far, against Zebre in their opening match, and are being kept off the bottom of the table by the two Italian teams. 

A 24-24 draw with Connacht in Round 5 offered some encouragement to Blues fans, but I can't see them having anything to celebrate this weekend. Munster have only lost one of their last seven in all competitions and haven't lost to Cardiff since 2009. Back the Irish side to record their fourth away win in succession. 

Bet 3: Back Milos Raonic to beat Tomas Berdych at 1.834/5  

Saturday's ATP Paris Masters semi-final between Tomas Berdych and Milos Raonic should be a gripping encounter between two of the world's top ten, but there is more at stake for one of them then just a place in the final. 

Whilst Berdych's win over Kevin Anderson in the quarter-final earned him a spot at the ATP World Tour Finals, Raonic travelled to Paris knowing that he needed to win the tournament to qualify for London. 

But the young Canadian seems to be thriving on the pressure, beating Roger Federer for the first time in his career in the quarter-finals and up against an opponent he has beaten twice in three meetings, he can reach the final.    

Total Odds for this multiple: 7.28n/a Remember, multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

Staked: 86 pts
Returned: 97.7 pts
P/L: + 11.7 pts

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