F1 Betting: Can Hollywood Hamilton regain the glory?

Formula One / Ralph Ellis / 07 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

"Hamilton's car was off the pace last year. But so was he. Trailing champion Sebastian Vettel by 165 points at the end of the campaign might have been excusable - ending 43 behind his McLaren team mate Jenson Button definitely wasn't."

No-one doubts Lewis Hamilton's ability but all has not gone to plan since winning the Drivers' Championship in 2008 and the Brit could be a top-three lay at [1.9], according to Ralph Ellis

There's one big question about the 2012 Formula One season that won't be answered until the first race in Melbourne: which Lewis Hamilton will turn up?

Will it be the one who was so single mindedly obsessed with winning his first world title in an amazing season for McLaren in 2008? Or will it be the distracted, impatient, accident waiting to happen who competed in most of the Grand Prix races in 2011?

Hamilton's ability as a driver has never been in question. He has the natural instincts of a racer, and the story of how he came from a broken home in Stevenage, with no history in motorsport, to become arguably Britain's biggest motor racing star of the 21st Century is the stuff of Hollywood.

Unfortunately it seems that in the last couple of years it's been Hollywood that's taken over. Lewis has lapped up the celebrity lifestyle and his on-off relationship with former Pussycat Doll Nicole Scherzinger was unquestionably a distraction last year. Yes, his car was off the pace. But so was he. Trailing champion Sebastian Vettel by 165 points at the end of the campaign might have been excusable - ending 43 behind his McLaren team mate Jenson Button definitely wasn't.

Hamilton's star quality explains why he is [1.9] to be back in the top three drivers this season. But even with a car that, by all accounts, will be far more competitive it's still far too uncertain whether Lewis himself will be properly focused.

David Coulthard has warned today that Hamilton's relationship with his glamorous girlfriend could still cast a shadow on his performance - especially if it means frequent flights to LA. The BBC1 pundit said: "I don't think it is going to be good if you are clocking up lots of miles in between events."

Hamilton's camp insist that his approach will be different this year. They believe his decision to move his home from Switzerland to Monaco will help him be more focused. And Nicole's break with The X Factor means she can spend more time in Europe to cut down on his travelling.

But it still leaves a doubt to suggest that if anybody from the Woking team will give Red Bull a run for their money this season it is still more likely to be Button. He is [10.5] in the Drivers' Championship betting and, based on last season, that looks far more like value.

Five things you might not know about David Coulthard
1. Born March 1971 in the tiny Scottish village of Twynholm, he was born literally on four wheels - his mum was still on the trolley going into the labour ward!

2. His grandfather had driven in the Monte Carlo rally, and father Duncan had been Scottish karting champion before giving up racing to concentrate on running the family haulage business

3. He suffered from bulimia as a teenager as a result of keeping his weight low enough to be more competitive in kart racing.

4. His business interests include a string of hotels - the Dakota in Edinburgh won the title of Scotland's best hotel restaurant in 2008. Until two years ago he owned the Columbus in Monaco, but sold it for more than £30million.

5. He met the Spice Girls at the height of their fame, but they didn't know who he was. He introduced himself as "I'm David Coulthard, the driver", and got the reply: "Oh, right, what time are you coming to pick us up?"

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Opta Big Match Stats: Man United set to regain top spot

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Sir Alex Ferguson has had the beating of Mancini in the Premier League

"Manchester United have won five and lost none of the last six Premier League games against their city rivals."

Michael Lintorn has examined the Opta evidence to judge what bets to place on the Manchester derby, from which Chelsea may emerge as the true victors...

Manchester United have won five and lost none of the last six Premier League games against their city rivals
Given that each of those clashes took place in the aftermath of Manchester City's landscape-altering takeover, this is a hugely impressive record for Sir Alex Ferguson's side to boast. Coupled with their remarkable home form, which Opta reveal reads 19 straight league victories at Old Trafford, the hint is that the chance to back Manchester United at odds greater than evens is one not to be rejected.

There have been five 90th minute or later goals scored in the last eight matches in all competitions between the rivals, three of them to win the match for Manchester United
This stat could prove invaluable for in-play bettors, but it is also useful as an indicator to expect more goals in the second half than the first. A glance at the archives shows that such a bet would have been successful in five of the last six derbies, while the other ended goalless. In addition, there has been more action after the break in seven of Manchester City's eight league games to date, with 25 of the 33 goals in those fixtures scored in the second period.

None of the eight previous teams to have netted more than 20 goals after eight games in a Premier League campaign have gone on to win the title - both these sides have exceeded the 20-goal mark
Okay, so this Opta pearl doesn't relate to the outcome of Sunday's match, but it offers a fascinating insight into the oft-dismissed concept of peaking too soon. Chelsea, who came a Fernando Torres sitter at Old Trafford away from breaching the barrier themselves, are just three points off the pace and, provided they justify their odds of [1.4] to triumph at QPR, certain to close the gap on at least one of the pacesetters on Sunday. Is this consequently a good time to back the Blues for the title?

Recommended Bets:
Manchester United to win @ [2.14]
The second half to feature the most goals @ [2.2]
Chelsea to win the Premier League @ [4.2]

Click here to read even more from Opta about this encounter

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