US PGA 2011 Betting: Five punting pointers

US PGA Championship / Paul Krishnamurty / 05 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Rory remains the man to back in Georgia

"Rory's relative failure in the Open is easily dismissed, due to the unsuitable bad weather. He remains the best second-shot player around, and the man to beat."

With under a week to go until the beginning of the final Major of 2011, Paul Krishnamurty provides five useful pointers for those who fancy a punt on the USPGA.

The PGA has become the most predictable major

Historically, the PGA Championship tended to be seen as the Major likeliest to produce an upset, but recent renewals have bucked that trend. Whereas all the three other majors have seen a spate of shock winners, the PGA has become the most predictable. From 2004 to 2008, the Wanamaker Trophy was shared between Tiger Woods, Vijay Singh, Phil Mickelson and Padraig Harrington - all proven major champions, top or very near the top of the world rankings. Last year Martin Kaymer won en route to becoming world number one. The sole exception was Y E Yang in 2009, and even then the rest of the places were filled by world-class proven performers.

Atlanta Athletic Club is another second shot course, favouring the best long iron players

This trend may not be entirely coincidental. All major venues strive to remain challenging in the face of improving technology, yet PGA Championship organisers are always loathe to make the fairways too narrow or the rough too penal, so as not to humiliate the 20 club professionals in the field. Instead of the tee shot, the challenge tends to lie in the quality of the second shot. The effect is usually to separate the best from the rest.

Atlanta Athletic Club appears to meet the usual criteria. A recurring theme throughout the course is the importance of finding the correct part of often treacherous greens. Tiger Woods played there earlier this week and described the putting surfaces as firm, fast and tough, which will again ensure a strong premium on the most accurate, best controlled second shots.

Rather than recent majors, Firestone may provide the best form guide

Studying figures from the last major is of limited use, because the Open Championship was played in completely different conditions. Georgia in mid-August is not going to see cold strong winds and torrential rain, and this course isn't a links. Darren Clarke may be a shorter price than at Sandwich, but for me, doubling up at Atlanta would represent an even bigger shock. With less rough and lower scoring than usual, the US Open at Congressional played more like a USPGA, although rain neutralised the greens. Assuming the forecast of firm, fast conditions proves correct, there is little to learn from either event.

More relevant form is being earned right now in hot conditions at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. Like next week's venue, Firestone is a long, par-70 with fast greens, although it isn't playing at it's toughest. Anyone thriving at Firestone will not only head to Atlanta able to boast good recent form, but will have proved they have the game for the PGA layout.

Power is an advantage, although bombers won't be able to overpower the course

At 7.467 yards, the Highlands Course is very long for a par-70. Short-hitters are going to be seriously challenged to find the green in regulation on the second and 18th holes, both par fours over 500 yards. The third and 16th, both over 475 yards and either uphill or into the wind, are no picnic either. However, while that might penalise the very shortest hitters, this course isn't a big-hitters' paradise either. There are few, if any, chances to drive greens, and whereas length might be an advantage to shorten dog-leg holes, there is also plenty of risk involved. Likewise, well-guarded, difficult greens on the two par-fives might reward a conservative approach.

In short, we're looking for players with the very best long games. As is usually the case at Firestone, the key stats to follow are usually greens in regulation and total driving, and it might also pay to check the numbers at www.pgatour.com for approaches and gir from over 175 yards.

Back Rory McIlroy @ [12.5]

Results from Firestone withstanding, one man stands out across all the criteria - the favourite. Rory McIlroy has tournament pedigree, finishing third in the last two PGAs, and has traded below [4.0] in four of the last five majors. He ranks second amongst the PGA field this year for total driving, and 11th for greens in regulation. Rory's relative failure in the Open is easily dismissed, due to the unsuitable bad weather. He remains the best second-shot player around, and the man to beat.

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: A posse of punting possibles

Timeform Radio Tip / Graham Cunningham / 22 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will Salisbury suit either of today's two bets running at the Wiltshire course?

"Leviathan must go well in Salisbury's 15:50. No flash story here. He's simply a reliable handicapper on a fair mark with conditions to suit."

Graham Cunningham sees opportunities everywhere - will any of these four bring home the bacon?

There are days when you just can't find a horse you are keen on and others when a posse of punting possibles present themselves.

Today falls into the latter category and the following points occur.

First, Kathleen Frances looks a very solid win and place option in Carlisle's 16:10 on the basis that she's a quietly progressive filly who hails from last year's winning stable having caught the eye again at York recently.

Second, Bop It looks a fascinating longshot for Carlisle's 14:30. Granted, he didn't live up to debut promise last time, but that York debut represents very solid form and Bryan Smart's team are in peak form.

Third, Leviathan must go well in Salisbury's 15:50. No flash story here. He's simply a reliable handicapper on a fair mark with conditions to suit.

And fourth, Ardlui also looks well worth noting in Salisbury's 16:20. Henry Candy is another trainer enjoying a successful time of it and this well-bred Galileo colt could be very well in off an official mark of 85 based on the way he powered clear of a subsequent winner in a Thirsk maiden.

Recommended Bets
Back Kathleen Frances win and place Carlisle 16:10
Back Bop It win and place Carlisle 14:30
Back Leviathan win and place Salisbury 15:50
Back Ardlui win and place Salisbury 16:20

Andrew Sheret serves up a pair of promising Tuesday evening bets, including one returning to the track after a lay-off and another looking to end a losing run......

With British golf fans jubilant and tennis enthusiasts hopeful, it's a quiet day in racing. Terry Norman, however, reckons he's found a promising afternoon bet....

Fresh from a super day's tipping at Royal Ascot yesterday, David Cleary is back for the slightly less glamorous racing on offer today. But don't let that stop you from making some money......

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Simon Rowlands: Look to the US for Good Friday punting

USA / Simon Rowlands / 22 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

There is plenty of good racing in the US on Friday

"The feedback...suggests that an increasing number of British and Irish punters are taking racing in the US seriously. If you want to join them, or if you are already one of their number, Good Friday need not seem such a dull betting prospect after all."

Simon Rowlands explains why Good Friday needn't be a blank day on the racing front...

I am guessing that whoever came up with the term "Good Friday" to describe the day two days prior to Easter Sunday was not a fan of British or Irish horseracing. April 22 this year shares the dubious distinction with Christmas Day and the two days preceding it of being the only dates to have no racing scheduled in this part of the world.

But fear ye not. For verily there may be an alternative to death by a thousand barbecues or watching Raiders of The Lost Ark (yet again). Countries do not come much more God-fearing and bible-thumping than the USA, and yet religious considerations do not stop the citizens of that nation from staging - and betting on - a large number of race meetings this Friday.

In days gone by, US racing would have been a complete mystery to me and therefore of no interest from a betting point of view. But times change, and so, even, do I. One of my tasks in the last year has been to develop a US form product for Timeform, a product which was launched in November and which can be found on the "form/results" section of the Horse Racing tab on Betfair.

It provides a quick and simple guide to all significant racing in USA and Canada - every horse in every race, every day - along with a star-rating system that has proved to be notably successful (somewhat to my surprise!) at identifying likely winners. The strike-rate for five-star horses is just under 30%.

There is also a US section to the Timeform 1-2-3 tips on this site, a service that has shown more than 40% profit on stakes since it was launched.

The feedback, including from those tuning in to Timeform Radio and who have downloaded podcasts, suggests that an increasing number of British and Irish punters are taking racing in the US seriously. If you want to join them, or if you are already one of their number, Good Friday need not seem such a dull betting prospect after all.

Highlight of the day is the Grade 3 Doubledogdare Stakes at Keeneland, for fillies and mares over 8.5 furlongs on a synthetic surface and due off at 22:23 BST. Timeform ratings have little between: Washington Bridge (rated 113); Denomination, Check The Label and Milwaukee Appeal (all rated 112); and It's Tea Time (rated 111). However, it should be noted that both Check The Label (the Morning Line favourite at 7/2) and Denomination have small penalties.

Washington Bridge is consistent at this and a higher level on a range of surfaces, having posted ratings of 110 or more on her last four starts. She makes appeal for place as well as win purposes. By contrast, Check The Label has one run which stands out a bit (and against rivals which have not set the world on fire since) and has a layoff to overcome. She looks worth a place lay given the forecast odds.

Aqueduct's main race is the one-mile $60k Noble Nashua Stakes at 21:43 BST. Stormy's Majesty (rated 117) is the class act here, and the Morning Line favourite at 5/2, but he carries a 7 lb penalty and faces stiff opposition from Mine Over Matter (rated 109 and forecast at 3/1) and some other useful types.

The fact that Stormy's Majesty has been absent since December, along with Mine Over Matter's notable consistency (has run to over 100 on Timeform ratings on all last six starts), swings things marginally in the favour of the latter in my book.

If the barbecue goes on too long, or if you fall asleep in front of Raiders of The Lost Ark and wake up after midnight, there is always the night meeting at Prairie Meadows, where the $60k Goldfinch Stakes (due off at 03:37 BST) sees another appearance from 95-rated All About Allie. A 10 lb penalty could bring her back to Joe Ja, but not necessarily the others, and a reverse Exacta (go to "Tote" button on Betfair) on horses 1 and 6 could pay dividends.

The incomparable James Willoughby will be punditing on the US action on Timeform Radio on Friday evening - turn on, tune in but, whatever you do, don't drop out - though I suspect that even he will have called it a day long before Prairie Meadows' main race comes round!

Visit the Timeform Free Form Site to get your guide to racing in the US & Canada at http://www.timeform.com/free/.

The Timeform Radio big guns come out for the big one with Paul Jacobs asking Kentucky Derby-related questions of TVG presenter and handicapper Rich Perloff, Timeform's head of handicapping for North America Simon Rowlands and Timeform's North American correspondent James Willoughby. And if that lot can't find you the winner, nobody can!...

With no racing in the UK on Good Friday, there's no better time to check out Timeform's US Tips, which are still showing a healthy level-stakes profit*.......

Two plays and a lay for Thursday from Timeform's profitable US service......

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