US PGA Championship 
/ Paul Krishnamurty / 05 August 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Rory remains the man to back in Georgia
"Rory's relative failure in the Open is easily dismissed, due to the unsuitable bad weather. He remains the best second-shot player around, and the man to beat."
With under a week to go until the beginning of the final Major of 2011, Paul Krishnamurty provides five useful pointers for those who fancy a punt on the USPGA.
The PGA has become the most predictable major
Historically, the PGA Championship tended to be seen as the Major likeliest to produce an upset, but recent renewals have bucked that trend. Whereas all the three other majors have seen a spate of shock winners, the PGA has become the most predictable. From 2004 to 2008, the Wanamaker Trophy was shared between Tiger Woods, Vijay Singh, Phil Mickelson and Padraig Harrington - all proven major champions, top or very near the top of the world rankings. Last year Martin Kaymer won en route to becoming world number one. The sole exception was Y E Yang in 2009, and even then the rest of the places were filled by world-class proven performers.
Atlanta Athletic Club is another second shot course, favouring the best long iron players
This trend may not be entirely coincidental. All major venues strive to remain challenging in the face of improving technology, yet PGA Championship organisers are always loathe to make the fairways too narrow or the rough too penal, so as not to humiliate the 20 club professionals in the field. Instead of the tee shot, the challenge tends to lie in the quality of the second shot. The effect is usually to separate the best from the rest.
Atlanta Athletic Club appears to meet the usual criteria. A recurring theme throughout the course is the importance of finding the correct part of often treacherous greens. Tiger Woods played there earlier this week and described the putting surfaces as firm, fast and tough, which will again ensure a strong premium on the most accurate, best controlled second shots.
Rather than recent majors, Firestone may provide the best form guide
Studying figures from the last major is of limited use, because the Open Championship was played in completely different conditions. Georgia in mid-August is not going to see cold strong winds and torrential rain, and this course isn't a links. Darren Clarke may be a shorter price than at Sandwich, but for me, doubling up at Atlanta would represent an even bigger shock. With less rough and lower scoring than usual, the US Open at Congressional played more like a USPGA, although rain neutralised the greens. Assuming the forecast of firm, fast conditions proves correct, there is little to learn from either event.
More relevant form is being earned right now in hot conditions at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. Like next week's venue, Firestone is a long, par-70 with fast greens, although it isn't playing at it's toughest. Anyone thriving at Firestone will not only head to Atlanta able to boast good recent form, but will have proved they have the game for the PGA layout.
Power is an advantage, although bombers won't be able to overpower the course
At 7.467 yards, the Highlands Course is very long for a par-70. Short-hitters are going to be seriously challenged to find the green in regulation on the second and 18th holes, both par fours over 500 yards. The third and 16th, both over 475 yards and either uphill or into the wind, are no picnic either. However, while that might penalise the very shortest hitters, this course isn't a big-hitters' paradise either. There are few, if any, chances to drive greens, and whereas length might be an advantage to shorten dog-leg holes, there is also plenty of risk involved. Likewise, well-guarded, difficult greens on the two par-fives might reward a conservative approach.
In short, we're looking for players with the very best long games. As is usually the case at Firestone, the key stats to follow are usually greens in regulation and total driving, and it might also pay to check the numbers at www.pgatour.com for approaches and gir from over 175 yards.
Back Rory McIlroy @ [12.5]
Results from Firestone withstanding, one man stands out across all the criteria - the favourite. Rory McIlroy has tournament pedigree, finishing third in the last two PGAs, and has traded below [4.0] in four of the last five majors. He ranks second amongst the PGA field this year for total driving, and 11th for greens in regulation. Rory's relative failure in the Open is easily dismissed, due to the unsuitable bad weather. He remains the best second-shot player around, and the man to beat.
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