The Punter 
/ Steven Rawlings / 21 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Jason Day - One of The Punters picks in Arizona
“Day has everything in his locker and he’s a potential superstar but he very much fits the mould of a player that worries his way out of strokeplay events. He should have won far more than he has to date but this format should help.”
With a strategy involving finger crossing, The Punter's not overly confident as he looks at this week's matchplay extravaganza...
Tournament
Exclusively for the world's top-64 players, or 66 if two players withdraw as they have this year, the WGC World Match Play was first played in 1999, when Jeff Maggert beat Andrew Magee in a totally forgettable final.
Although outside the top-64, Ernie Els and George Coetzee get into the field courtesy of a Phil Mickelson family holiday and a Paul Casey snowboarding injury.
The event is a straight knockout tournament starting tomorrow. Thursday is the round of 32, Friday the round of 16, and the quarter-finals are on Saturday. Then on Sunday the final four play out the two semi-finals before competing in either the Championship Final or the Consolation Match.
Venue
The Ritz-Carlton Golf Club, Dove Mountain, Marana, Arizona
Course Details
Par 72, 7,833 yards.
Designed by Jack Nicklaus in 2008, the Ritz-Carlton is a long desert track enjoying the spectacular backdrop of the Tortolita Mountain Range. There's plenty of room off the tee but if you stray into the desert you'll almost certainly lose the hole. Many a tie will be decided on the exciting drivable par four 15th. This will be the fourth year in-a-row that the Ritz-Carlton has hosted the event.
Useful Sites
Brackets
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all five days, 5.00pm Wednesday, 7.00pm on Thursday and Friday, 5.00pm Saturday and 3.00pm Sunday.
Last Five Winners
2011 - Luke Donald beat Martin Kaymer 3 & 2
2010 - Ian Poulter beat Paul Casey 4 & 2 (36 holes)
2009 - Geoff Ogilvy beat Paul Casey 4 & 3 (36 holes)
2008 - Tiger Woods beat Stewart Cink 8 & 7 (36 holes)
2007 - Henrik Stenson beat Geoff Ogilvy 2 & 1 (36 holes)
Typical Winner
Although a long course, all three Ritz-Club champs could hardly be described as monster hitters off the tee. An accurate and solid game has so far paid dividends.
Matchplay is a very different format to strokeplay and as Paul Krishnamurty points out here, some take to it and some don't. The last two winners in particular, are examples of players seen at their very best in this format. Both Luke Donald and Ian Poulter have extraordinary matchplay CVs and it was no surprise to see the pair fight out the final of last year's Volvo World Match Play.
In strokeplay, the usual format encountered week in week out, players have to beat around 70 players over the weekend in any given tournament and many a player that worries his way out of victory in that format can thrive in this one. You only have to beat one man at a time; you don't have to worry about others elsewhere on the course closing with a low round or whether you need to defend a lead or attack the course. It's simple, you just need to beat your opponent and I always completely dismiss any fears I have about players in-contention records at matchplay events. Although probably not the case anymore, world number one Luke Donald was definitely a worrier in strokeplay for many years, yet he appeared to have nerves of steel whenever he tees it up in this format.
Market leaders
Always a popular choice, the in-form Rory McIlroy heads the market at around [15.0], closely followed by Tiger Woods. Rors hasn't the greatest of records in the event though and he crashed out to Ben Crane 8 & 7 in round two last year. Of the two, I marginally prefer Tiger but his recent record isn't too hot either and although he has a lot to prove after his final round flop at Pebble Beach, he first has to get past Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano and that might not be a simple task.
I respect Luke Donald's chances and he looks to have a reasonable draw but at [18.5] he's considerably shorter than the [46.0] I took about him twelve months ago and I'm happy to let him go.
Sergio Garcia showed his hand far too obviously on Sunday at Riviera when he closed out the event with a stunning 64 and at just [21.0] he's readily overlooked.
I've got a sneaky feeling about Lee Westwood this week. I haven't backed him yet but if he keeps on drifting (currently out to [23.0] from an opening price of [18.5]) I may have to get him onside. His record in this event is awful but he's a very solid Ryder Cupper and having thrown away the Dubai Desert Classic last time out he has something to prove to himself. He's in fine form and he has the added incentive of making it three in-a-row for England.
I couldn't put anyone off Martin Kaymer at [27.0] or Ian Poulter at [34.0] but they haven't quite made my staking plan.
Betting Strategy
I've made no secret of my dislike of matchplay for betting purposes and this week usually turns into one long moan for me. My opinion changed somewhat last year though, as not only did I pick out Luke Donald here, I also managed to back Ian Poulter at the Volvo. I'm not daft enough to think I've got it sussed though - I think matchplay betting is as close to buying a lottery ticket as golf betting gets and I'm entering the week with caution.
I've picked out just six from the get-go, spread out across the four brackets and that's my idea of the best strategy. Try to spread your bets with the ultimate goal of getting all four semi-finalists. Of course, that's nigh on impossible but if you can get somewhere close, you can then start backing your selections next opponents and try and build a book that way. The first two days are key and if they all fall by the wayside earlier on you have to decide on a boring bet free weekend or a potentially expensive tournament. Fingers crossed for the first few days then! Can finger crossing be classed as a strategy? I told you I don't like match play!
Selections
Gary Player Bracket
Jason Day @ [38.0]
I'll be hoping that Ian Poulter, arguably the world's finest matchplay exponent, takes a tumble early on because if he doesn't there's a potential meeting of Day and Poults in round three and that would be tough. Prior to that though, the top-class Australian has to overcome Rafael Cabrera-Bello and then either Simon Dyson or John Senden - tasks I strongly fancy him to achieve.
Day has everything in his locker and he's a potential superstar but he very much fits the mould of a player that worries his way out of strokeplay events. He should have won far more than he has to date but this format should help. The track looks perfect and he fared well on debut last year, losing narrowly to J.B Holmes in the last 16.
Bobby Jones Bracket
Kyle Stanley @ [60.0]
I know I'm not alone by any means but I really fancy this guy could be the next big thing and given he's already won in the desert (successful at the WM Phoenix Open) I thought he was worth chancing here on debut. Although big-hitters haven't so far dominated, logic would suggest the long track should give them an advantage and I was particularly impressed with how well Stanley played at Riviera last week. That was his first outing since his win in Phoenix and it was his first look at Riviera - tied 24th was a very solid effort.
Mark Wilson @ [170.0]
I'm in complete agreement with Paul, who has made Wilson one of his Find Me A 100 Winners. Wilson is continually overlooked and is so again here.
Ben Hogan Bracket
Ben Crane @ [85.0]
As already mentioned, Crane battered Rory here last year. He has a really tough opening match against Bubba Watson but he's been in good form this year and he looked a fair price at [85.0].
Louis Oosthuizen @ [95.0]
A great exponent of desert golf, Louis comes back after a paternity break so he could be a bit rusty. Prior to that he was in very good form though and he's the relentless, solid and steady type to grind his way through round after round and I thought he too looked a little overlooked at such a big price.
Zach Johnson @ [120.0]
Zach has a couple of horrid early rounds. First he has to overcome Hunter Mahan and then he has to beat either Graeme McDowell or Y.E Yang, just to get him through to the last 16 but he's as tough as teak and a hard opponent to beat himself. He's also in decent nick this year and as a multiple winner, I thought he was worth chancing.
Sam Snead Bracket
Justin Rose @ [80.0]
Justin might just be coming into this event under the radar. He played well at Riviera last week, looks to have a decent draw and he'll be happy to be out the limelight with several Englishmen receiving far more attention than him.
I'll be back later, or maybe tomorrow, with a preview of the PGA Tour event, the Mayakoba Classic, and I'll kick off the In-Play Blog on Thursday morning.
I haven't had a really good look at the matches yet, though I don't often get too involved. If I do place any round one match bets though, or if I add to my original six picks before the kick off, I'll add the details as a comment.
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