Match Previews 
/ Stuart Jones / 03 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Can Leonardo Ghiraldini's Italy upset Brian O'Driscoll's Ireland?
"Ireland's offensive work this season has been second to none and, with Jonny Sexton pulling the strings, they should pose the kind of threat that the Italians frequently come unstuck against."
With his side decimated by injury, Declan Kidney has been forced to field some lively youngsters for Ireland's trip to Rome. So will BOD and co. get off to a winning start on Saturday? Stuart Jones selects the best bets.
Italy have propped up the Six Nations table in each of the three years Nick Mallett has been at the helm, but, with 2011 being the South African's last season in charge, he will be keener than ever to see the Azurri avoid the dreaded 'wooden spoon'.
Declan Kidney's Ireland are the first side to visit Rome in this year's competition and the Italians will take confidence from the fact that the visitors are missing a number of key players. Ulsterman Stephen Ferris was the latest to add his name to a casualty list that already featured seven other players, with Tommy Bowe, Shane Horgan, John Hayes, Jamie Heaslip, Andrew Trimble, Rob Kearney and Geordan Murphy all missing.
Kidney has come under fire in the past for not blooding youngsters soon enough, but his hand has been forced on this occasion, and the highly-promising Leinster pair of Fergus McFadden and Sean O'Brien get deserved starts. O'Brien has put in some outstanding performances this season, playing a major part in Leinster's impressive Heineken Cup form, and should prove an able replacement for teammate Jamie Heaslip in the number eight jersey.
The fact that the Irish backline is made up largely of Leinster players bodes well for their chances. Their offensive work this season has been second to none and, with Jonny Sexton pulling the strings in the number ten slot, they should pose the kind of attacking threat that the Italians so frequently come unstuck against. The back three of Fitzgerald, Earls and McFadden have pace to burn and the last-named's already mature style of play will inevitably cause the opposition problems.
Matching the physicality of the opposition is never normally a big problem for Nick Mallett's side. Marco Castrogiovanni and co relish a tussle at the set piece and breakdown, whilst inspirational captain Sergio Parisse is amongst the strongest ball carriers in the world.
However, it's an all too familiar story regarding the lack of quality backs at their disposal. First-choice Craig Gower is a long-term absentee and they simply don't have a specialist fly-half to fill that void. On the plus side, they do have a couple of exciting prospects to call upon; classy centre Tommaso Benvenuti has five tries to his name in the Heineken Cup and the emergence of Edoardo Gori at scrum-half has meant that Mauro Bergamasco can sleep easy at night.
Looking back at the last five encounters between the two sides in Rome, it was rather surprising to see just how high scoring previous games had been. The average number of total points came out at 56, with Ireland's 28-17 win in 2005 the lowest scoring encounter.
It's a big ask to expect two sides to come out firing in their first game of the tournament, but the bookies have a tendency to go low on points in fixtures involving Italy, and a bet on over 43.5 points at [1.91] makes plenty of appeal.
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