The Punter 
/ Steven Rawlings / 07 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Martin Kaymer – Can he contend at the Emirates?
“Kaymer comes into the event without any of the pressures of last year and in a weaker field, at a much better price, and off the back of an extremely encouraging week in Qatar, I simply had to back him.”
Our man takes a good look at the last leg of the Middle East Swing, where Rory McIlroy's a warm order, but is he value?
Tournament
This will be the 23rd staging of the Dubai Desert Classic, the final leg of the Race to Dubai's Middle East Swing.
Venue
Emirates Golf Club, Dubai, UAE
Course Details
Par 72, 7301 yards. The Majlis course, designed by Karl Litten and opened in 1988, has hosted the event since its inception. Like last week's venue, Doha GC in Qatar, the wind is often a factor, especially in the afternoons. The front nine ends with a stretch of three tough holes in four - the 6th, 8th and 9th are all strong par fours, so the back nine is the scoring nine, with three par fives (the 10th, 13th and 18th). Water is in play on ten holes. A good all round game is required here but an ability to hit it long off the tee and to putt on Bermuda certainly won't go amiss. Over the last few years, good scrambling has been a key stat too.
Useful Sites
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days - starting 6.00am Thursday and Friday, 9.00am Saturday and 8.00am on Sunday.
Last five winners
2011 - Alvaro Quiros -11
2010 - Miguel Angel Jimenez -11 (Playoff)
2009 - Rory McIlroy -19
2008 - Tiger Woods -14
2007 - Henrik Stenson -19
Typical Winner
It certainly helps if you're long off the tee but it's not absolutely imperative. You do need to hit plenty of greens though and if you don't, you need a brilliant short game to save pars. There have been one or two shock winners over the years but the title usually goes to a top-class contender.
Market Leader
It's impossible to crab favourite Rory McIlroy. He's in fine form, his first Tour win came here in 2009, and he clearly loves this place. He's led after the first round in each of the last three years, so an argument could be made for a trade at least, but he's simply too short for my liking at just [5.4]. Especially when you bear in mind how poorly he's finished the event in the last two years. He was 10th last year and 6th in 2010.
Second favourite, Martin Kaymer, recovered well last week in Qatar after his surprising missed cut at his beloved Abu Dhabi Golf Club. He's always struggled at Doha in the past, so his top-ten finish caught the eye.
Lee Westwood will feel as if this event owes him one, he really should have won here two years ago. He's played the event 13 times in total though and other than that effort in 2010, his record's quite ordinary and I'm happy to overlook him once again.
Peter Hansen, fourth best at [24.0], ticks the form and course form boxes boldly and he'll have an army of followers but as detailed in yesterdays De-brief, he's not one to trust in the mix and I can't take to him at all.
Selections
I swerved Martin Kaymer in last year's renewal at a lot less than he trades at this time around and rightly so. I was wary of the fact that he'd just become world number one, and that he was placed in a high profile three-ball, alongside Tiger Woods and Lee Westwood. He comes into the event without any of those pressures this time around and in a weaker field, at a much better price, and off the back of an extremely encouraging week in Qatar, I simply had to back him. His form figures here read 2-4-4-31 and if he hadn't flopped last year, he'd have been a point or two shorter.
Defending Champion, Alvaro Quiros, isn't happy with his game and comes here after two disappointing efforts. A missed cut in Abu Dhabi was followed by a very ordinary effort in Qatar but I'm going to stick with him. The big problem last week was putting and that could be down to the particularly slow greens. He actually topped the Driving Distance stats and ranked 6th for Greens In Regulation, so although he's bemoaning his form, the rest of his game seems to be in good order. Given he traded at heavy odds on in 2010 and quite frankly blew it on that occasion, and given he made two triple-bogeys and came from ten back after day one last year to win, I felt he was a big enough price to take a chance on this time around.
The first bet I struck this week was on Thomas Bjorn. The Dane got blown away on day one last week but recovered brilliantly. I thought the rejuvenated Bjorn, who won this back in 2001, would have been no bigger than [25.0] this week so taking the [30.0] available yesterday didn't take a lot of pondering over.
Young Dane, Thorbjørn Olesen, didn't back up a good performance in Abu Dhabi, finishing well down the field last week in Qatar but he was too big at [130.0] here, and last up is Thongchai Jaidee. The Thai veteran put in a much improved performance last week and should have gotten himself into the playoff here two years ago.
I'll be back later with a preview of the US Tour's event, the AT & T Pebble Beach National, and I'll kick off the In-Play Blog on either Thursday or Friday.
Steve runs the rule over this week's US PGA Tour event, what's it going to take to win at Pebble?...
Pre-event pick Ben Crane comes up a shot shy but Steve was still happy to see Kyle Stanley win in Phoenix and he couldn't have been more impressed by Paul Lawrie's success in Qatar......
Steve takes a look at the state of play in Qatar, where he fancies a low round from someone might just nick it. And in the States, there's a warning for anyone tempted by the current leader......
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