/ David Cleary / 07 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
All roads lead to Cheltenham. But which race?
"Currently the shortest-priced horse in the market for the Neptune not entered elsewhere is Batonnier, who got off the mark over hurdles beating another entry here Broadbackbob in the Grade 2 novice on Trials day last month."
David Cleary tries to work out what some of the different Cheltenham markets may look like nearer race day and the key events between now and then.
The two longer distance novice hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival provide an extreme example of a problem common to many of the races at the meeting when trying to find an ante-post option. For although both the Neptune Investments (Baring Bingham) and Albert Bartlett (Spa) have attracted a healthy entry, the vast majority also hold other engagements. Only around a third of the entries in each race has that as its sole novice option, and a few in each are likely to feature among the handicap entries which are not yet out. Also, quite a few of the sole-entry horses are what look like vanity runners as well. In the Neptune there are no more than ten that look serious contenders with just that race as a Cheltenham target, though five of those are trained by Nicky Henderson. It seems likely that one or two of those could go for the EBF Final at Sandown the previous weekend.
The relative strength of the two races will depend a lot on which race the connections of Fingal Bay and Boston Bob target. They are the stand-out staying novices on either side of the Irish Sea and were they to go for different races would likely be a short price for their respective event. The pair are unbeaten in seven starts over hurdles between them, showing form well up to the standard required to win at Cheltenham, and though all their runs have been at around two and a half miles both are likely to be at least as effective at three miles.
Currently the shortest-priced horse in the market for the Neptune not entered elsewhere is Batonnier, who got off the mark over hurdles beating another entry here Broadbackbob in the Grade 2 novice on Trials day last month. That form wouldn't be a patch on Fingal Bay's best, but both have potential to progress further. Simonsig and Sous Les Cieux, discussed in the article on the Supreme Novices', would certainly have stronger claims were they to be routed here. Given such uncertainty, it is hard to offer an angle into the Neptune.
The Albert Bartlett looks more fertile ground. While it's possible both Fingal Bay and Boston Bob will turn up here, the percentage call is that both of them won't (Fingal Bay's price on Betfair certainly suggests he's much more likely to run in the Neptune). Also those with just an entry in the Albert Bartlett look a stronger lot than their equivalents in the Neptune.
They include Folsom Blue and Ipsos du Berlais. The former has won his last three starts over hurdles and was an impressive winner at Clonmel last time; he has plenty more to offer, particularly when stepped up to three miles. The same is true of Ipsos du Berlais, who ought to be three from four over hurdles. He was beaten fair and square when third to Boston Bob in a Grade 1 novice at Navan in December but looked short on experience that day and might make more of a race of it another time. The problem with those two, along with Make Your Mark and Sea of Thunder, who are also prominent in the betting ante post, is that they are all in the same ownership. It would be surprising if they all ran. Mount Benbulben, second to Boston Bob at Navan, has the form to be involved in either this or the Baring Bingham but perhaps not the potential to improve of some of the others mentioned.
The most significant British trial may well prove to be the River Don at Doncaster, over three miles on good ground. The race was steadily run and the first two, Rocky Creek and Gullinbursti did well to pull so far clear. Rocky Creek was a ready winner on just his second start over hurdles and has plenty more to come. Were Boston Bob to go for the Neptune, then the prospect of Ruby Walsh riding Rocky Creek could see his price shorten a fair bit.
These two races are hard to have a firm view on without knowing where Fingal Bay and Boston Bob are going. In contrast to most other Festival races, there is a shortage of significant trials still to come. Rocky Creek is about the price he should be for the Albert Bartlett, though makes some appeal, given the prospect of his shortening in the market. He's currently available on Betfair at [14.0].
Key dates
Deloitte Novice Hurdle, Leopardstown, February 12
Prestige Novices' Hurdle, Haydock, February 18
Next declaration stage, February 21
Sidney Banks Memorial Novices' Hurdle, Huntingdon, February 23
National Spirit Hurdle, Fontwell, February 26
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