Timeform Daily Racing Tips: Lean margin

Timeform Radio Tip / David Cleary / 26 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

David's backing Lean Burn at Uttoxeter

"Lean Burn has optimum conditions, with a decent pace over a sharp two miles on the cards."

David Clearly has come up with a pair of selections that stand out on a terrific Sunday afternoon...

An excellent weekend of racing on both sides of the Irish Sea continues with the highlights the Irish Derby at the Curragh (due off at 15:50) and the Summer National at Uttoxeter.

Warm favourite Carlton House is the most likely winner of the Irish Derby, looking set to emerge best of the four to chase home Pour Moi in a tight finish at Epsom, the run of the race there suiting the other trio Treasure Beach, Memphis Tennessee and, to a lesser extent, Native Khan better. That said, he is short enough and there may be value elsewhere, with Seville making some appeal each way or win and place. He didn't handle Epsom and, while he ought not to beat Carlton House on Dante running, the likely emphasis on stamina on a conventional track will suit him well enough to ensure he's in the first three at least.

The Summer National at 16:20 is one of the highlights of the summer jumping programme and this afternoon's renewal looks very open. Those that look a little overpriced at the time of writing would include The Last Derby, Brooklyn Brownie and Grand Slam Hero but a better bet on the Uttoxeter card is Lean Burn in the handicap hurdle at 15:15. He was well held last time but that was a really competitive 0-120 handicap at Bangor that has worked out well. He's running at least two levels lower this afternoon and has optimum conditions, with a decent pace over a sharp two miles on the cards.

Recommended Bets
Back Lean Burn @ [11.0] in the 15:15 at Uttoxeter
Back Seville win and place/each way @ [8.0] (win) in the 15:50 at the Curragh

Terry Norman provides a pair of promising Saturday afternoon selections......

There's nothing too tempting for David Johnson on the Flat today so it's off to Wales for the Timeform Radio tips...

Graham Cunningham sees opportunities everywhere - will any of these four bring home the bacon?...

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US Masters Tips: Victory Margin market

US Masters / Steven Rawlings / 24 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Phil Mickelson on 18 last year, moments after scuppering the Punter’s wager

“The stats suggest that two strokes should be favourite and anything over [4.5] will be a very fair price.”

Mickelson may have scuppered his bet last year but Steve's playing the percentages again this time around...

I've looked back over the last 30 years results at Augusta and the thing that sticks out like the most painful of sore thumbs is Tiger Woods' demolition job in 1997, when he won by a staggering 12 strokes. Given how close it is most years that really was a remarkable achievement, the likes of which I doubt we'll ever see again.

It's usually a tight affair and only four times in that period was the margin any greater than three.

Thanks to Phil Mickelson's icing-on-the-cake 72nd hole birdie, three was the margin last year, as it was two years earlier when Trevor Immelman won. Prior to that, the only other three-stroke win was Wood's 2002 success.

With ten occurrences, two strokes is the most common winning margin. The event has gone to a play-off seven times and has been won by just one stroke six times, so another way to play the market could be to lay the higher margin outcomes, especially given that Woods isn't the force of old and it's hard to see anyone else streaking away with it.

That last gasp birdie by Lefty scuppered my two stroke margin bet last year but I'm going try again this time around. The stats suggest that two strokes should be favourite and anything over [4.5] will be a very fair price.

An Augusta ace is perfectly possible, but patience will be rewarded......

Dan Fitch takes a look at the golfers who made winning majors into a habit....

Before making your Masters bets consider these five punting principles from our golf betting expert Paul Krishnamurty...

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