The Punter's Live Golf Blog: The Trophee Hassan II and the Shell Houston Open

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 03 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Phil Mickelson on his way to a record equalling 63 yesterday

“The lefty boat hovered tantalisingly close to shore all evening but every time I went to jump, I stopped myself, convinced I’d get a bit bigger if I waited. The boat is now on the horizon and I just have to accept it.”

First it was Anthony Kim, now it's Phil Mickelson. The Punter's Augusta picks are flying but how's he doing this week?

10:25- April 3, 2011

Anyone that reads my column with any sort of regularity will know I'm a huge Phil Mickelson fan and after he shot a course record equalling 63 yesterday to assume command in Humble Texas yesterday, any such reader would probably assume I'm now aboard the great man for this week's title. They'd be wrong.

As Lefty started his charge last night, I spent my time sorting out my position on him for next week and I was happy enough that, after numerous trades in and out, I'd got him covered for Augusta at an average of just over [14.5]. But I can't pretend I didn't then spend an hour or so feeling sick that I hadn't backed him in-running to win here. To say he played well last night is a sizable understatement and although I did want to back him, I quite simply missed the boat.

You nearly always get a chance with Phil, they'll be a drive in the water somewhere or a silly missed par putt from three feet that will cause a huge price spike, and usually an overeating price spike to boot, but no such hiccup occurred last night. The Lefty boat hovered tantalisingly close to shore all evening but every time I went to jump, I stopped myself, convinced I'd get a bit bigger if I waited. The fact that he birdied the notoriously hard final hole summed it up really. He was relentless and his price just got shorter and shorter. The boat is now on the horizon and I just have to accept it.

Mickelson is tied for the lead with Scott Verplank, with Aaron Baddeley and one of my in-running picks, Chris Kirk, just a shot back. And with Anthony Kim and Steve Stricker lurking, within two and three strokes respectfully, Phil will have to keep the pedal down later if he's going to enter next week's first major with a win under his belt and although I wouldn't put anyone off backing him at around [3.0], I'm not going to. It's never easy to back-up a really low round and having resigned myself to missing the big prices, I can certainly live with missing the short one, should he win. I have had one more play though; on a player I very rarely back...

Hunter Mahan off the pace is a very different beast to Hunter Mahan on the pace, as I pointed out in the AT & T De-Brief. He confirmed the flaky leader theory at Doral recently when finding it impossible to lead all the way and now this looks like an ideal opportunity to test the other side of the theory. Four off the lead with a round to go, on a course where low scores are perfectly possible, looks just the scenario to suit Hunter and he's been backed at [32.0].

I'd written yesterday that Rhys Davies looked the most likely winner in Morocco and after a decent third round he's now tied for the lead with a round to go, so did I manage to back him yesterday? No, I didn't. But I did back the other co-leader David Horsey at an average of [15.0] so it's not all bad news.

Half watching the golf and half watching the cricket, Davies appeared to be struggling early on and after Horsey had birdied the third hole I thought he looked a bit big. Once he'd holed out from the fairway on the 6th the price was massive. Davies rallied after that though, birdying five holes in seven from the 8th.

It's not exclusively a two-horse race (pardon the obvious pun) but I'd be slightly surprised if one of the two leaders didn't win now. If they are going to get beat I hope it's by George Coetzee, one of Paul Krishnamurty's Find Me A 100 Winner picks this week. Coetzee's already traded at the first lay-back price and very nearly hit the second one yesterday when he streaked to a four shot lead. He's now two off the lead. And Paul picked David Horsey last week too, fine form indeed.

09:10- April 2, 2011

I'm still far from gripped by the action in Morocco where I'm still being cautious, and with 11 players separated by just a single stroke it's perhaps not a bad thing. Last year's winner, Rhys Davies has found some form from somewhere and looks the most likely winner and had he been a fraction bigger I may well have backed him. He's tied for the lead with promising Dutch youngster Joost Luiten on -6 with a group of eight a shot back on -5.

I have added one more, taking a ludicrously big [75.0] about Argentine Julio Zapata, one of those tied for 3rd on -5. He's won numerous titles in his homeland and may have enough experience to hang about all weekend. I thought he should have been about [40.0].

My in-running master plan at the Shell didn't go brilliantly. Chris Kirk did well enough; shooting three under to take up the running but the other two were poor. Josh Teater failed to break par and the nerves got to first round leader Jimmy Walker, as he shot two over par, but both players aren't out of it and are only two back of Kirk.

The massive move of the day came from one of Dan Geraghty's picks, defending champ Anthony Kim, and that wasn't bad news for me either. I backed Kim for next week's Masters at the start of the year but he's been quite badly out of form since his tied 6th at Torrey Pines in January. I had the wherewithal to top-up for next week as he made birdies early on yesterday but rather stupidly I didn't back him for this event. Now just one back he has every chance.

This could be starting to be something of a 'horses for courses' type track as the 2009 champ Johnson Wagner is bang there too. He sits alongside Kim after an impressive second round.

Of my original wagers only Ben Crane has a chance. Despite dropping a shot at his final hole he's moved up to -6 and is within three of the lead, so I'm not without chances going into the weekend, fingers and toes crossed!

11:25- April 1, 2011

As if the Trophee Hassan II wasn't hard enough, the European Tour website's leaderboard was constantly inaccurate yesterday and no doubt it will be again today, so if you're betting in-running be very careful. It's hard to believe what a pig's ear of a job they make of updating the scores week after week and a frozen leaderboard is a common occurrence, and somewhat suspiciously it's nearly always on-stop about half an hour before the TV coverage starts!

My sole pick, Freddie Andersson-Hed, was soon out of the reckoning with an atrocious start. He actually ended his day by birdying three of his last four holes but it was all too little too late.

I haven't had another bet and I won't for a while yet. I can't trust the leaderboard at all so I'm going to wait until the TV coverage starts at 1.00pm before I do anything but I'll probably wait until round two is done and dusted anyway. It's fair to say this one hasn't quite captured my imagination.

What a shame Ben Crane didn't have Andersson-Hed's finish. Just as the Swede was finishing up in Morocco in style, Ben was spoiling a great first round in Houston by dropping three shots in the last three holes - double-bogeying the last after finding water with his tee-shot. A common theme for my picks unfortunately!

Stuart Appleby, who started on the 10th, wasn't having the greatest of days but on -2, with a third of his round to go, he wasn't out of it either, but he is now. Not content with driving into the water on the par-5 4th to make bogey, he did it twice on the next hole! That led to a nine and the end of his chances. Ouch.

Given all the water about it seems a bit strange that driving accuracy just doesn't seem to matter here but it really doesn't. First round leader Jimmy Walker avoided the aqua and shot a very impressive, course record equalling nine under par 63 and yet ranked 138th for Driving Accuracy!

I'd highlighted in my preview that being up with the pace early here appears an essential pre-requisite and I've made plays on the strength of it. I recognise that with just five years worth of course form it's a risky strategy; especially considering the inexperience atop of the leaderboard but it's a strong enough trend to take the chance.

Of the five Redstone winners to date, two have led all the way, two were just one back after round one and the only other winner, Adam Scott, had ended the first round three back of Stuart Appleby but made up the deficit on the 72nd hole when Apples found the water off the tee.

If the run of every winner having to be within three of the lead after day one continues, then only four players can still win! I may well have taken over-simplifying to a new level but I've backed three of them, leaving out the most experienced.

Walker's two clear of Nick O'Hern and Josh Teater and three clear of Chris Kirk, with a group of four players four back. I've left out O'Hern because he's just hopeless in-contention and I've taken [9.6] about Walker and [40.0] about the other two.

All three of them are looking for their first PGA title but all three have won on the Nationwide Tour. Coincidently, all three have a morning tee-time today.

Of those in the group four back of Walker, Steve Stricker looks the biggest danger but hopefully he'll be miles back by the time he tees off in the afternoon!

Pre-Event Pick
Trophee Hassan II

Freddie Andersson-Hed @ an average of [135.0]

In Running Bet

Julio Zapata @ [75.0] - after round two
David Horsey @ an average of [15.0] - during round three

Pre-Event Picks
Shell Houston Open

Stuart Appleby @ [55.0]
Ben Crane @ [60.0]
Gary Woodland @ [75.0]
Chad Campbell @ [120.0]

In Running Bets

Jimmy Walker @ [9.6] - after round one
Josh Teater @ [40.0] - after round one
Chris Kirk @ [40.0] - after round one
Hunter Mahan @ [32.0] - after round three

Freddie gets the nod in nigh on impossible Morocco and there's a team of four in Texas, where the picture's somewhat clearer......

It's not been a great week for our man, as both round three leaders hang on to win but Steve's looking forward to Augusta now, where Rose may just be a value bet......

Steve's in-running plays haven't exactly shone and Karlberg's flopped but Lara and Bubba could yet save the week.......

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The Punter's picks for the Trophee Hassan II and the Shell Houston Open

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 29 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Stuart Appleby – The Punter’s most obvious pick in Houston

“Not only has Stuart Appleby won here and should have won here twice but he also won the title in 1999 and was runner-up in 2003. In short, Apples loves Houston and [55.0] was plenty big enough.”

Freddie gets the nod in nigh on impossible Morocco and there's a team of four in Texas, where the picture's somewhat clearer...

This week's Race to Dubai event, the Trophee Hassan II in Morocco, looks a nigh on impossible puzzle to solve. It's a pro-am with a distinctly second division field staged over two courses and two different courses to those used last year to boot! I simply did not know where to start, or whether it was even worth starting and I wasn't a million miles from not even having a bet before the off, but where's the fun in that? And anyway, one player looked way too big - Sweden's Freddie Andersson-Hed.

It's less than two months since Freddie was finishing 7th in the Dubai Desert Classic, a far better event than this one and that came just a week after a missed cut in Qatar, so a couple of weekends off recently needn't be a huge negative, especially considering he shot 67 last Friday, ten shots better than he'd shot on Thursday.

Freddie was a winner last year at the Italian Open, finished tied 2nd at the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, was an excellent 6th at the HSBC Champions event in China and is far too good to have been as big as [140.0] to win such a weak event. And I see I'm not alone, Paul Krishnamurty has him as one of his Find Me A 100 Winner picks this week too.

Selection:

Freddie Andersson-Hed @ an average of [135.0]

There's much more to go on in the States at the 64th Shell Houston Open, staged for the sixth year running at the Redstone GC Tournament Course, so here are a few pointers...

Paul Casey, the 2009 champ, is the only European to have ever won the event.

Although water comes into play on 10 holes, driving accuracy at Redstone appears almost irrelevant. Last year's winner, Anthony Kim, actually finished last of those that made the cut for fairways hit.

It's not essential to be long off the tee either. Although the last two winners, Kim and Casey, and Adam Scott, successful in 2007, were all in the top-10 for driving distance, the other two Redstone winners, Johnson Wagner and Stuart Appleby only ranked 53rd and 27th respectively.

It's not easy to establish whether putting or accurate iron play is more important - some of the five winners here have hit plenty of greens and some have had a great week with the putter.

We also have to add in the quandary of which players are really up for it and which are readying themselves for next week. Phil Mickelson for one will almost certainly be thinking about Augusta. When interviewed after the event last year he said this wasn't an ideal course to prepare for Augusta, stating that he has to use his driver all week to prepare for the Masters but that with all the water in play he knows he's going to put himself in trouble a lot, and last year he did.

Confused? So was I. Maybe I should have written confusing stats instead of pointers! But fortunately there is one very good pattern emerging that could well lead to profits in-running. Just like Augusta next week, it seems you really have to be up with the pace at Redstone.

In 2007 Stuart Appleby led from start to finish. Then a year later he messed up the final hole to let in Adam Scott and to scupper a repeat of the feat. Twelve months later Wagner led all the way and Paul Casey led from round two onwards in '09, having been tied for 4th after day one. And then last year Kim's end of round positions were 3-4-1-1. I know it's only five years form but it does look a strong trend.

Given all the above, I've taken it easy here with just four modest plays from the get-go and I'll be looking to build a profitable portfolio in play.

The shortest priced and most obvious selection is Stuart Appleby. Not only has he won here and should have won here twice but he also won the title in 1999 and was runner-up in 2003. In short, Apples loves Houston and [55.0] was plenty big enough.

My other three are all Texas residents. Ben Crane has been off with a rib injury so there's a slight risk there but he's quite sensible and tends to withdraw before the off if he's not right. If he is right, [60.0] was generous. He's been in decent form this year and has two top-25 finishes from three starts here, despite very poor opening rounds.

Gary Woodland looks a good fit for Redstone where his big-hitting should be a plus, although he did miss the cut here on his only previous outing two years ago. The big downside is that he may already have done his winning. It's possibly a lot to ask to hope he'll win again, just two weeks after his impressive victory at Copperhead but he's a big enough price to take the risk.

And last up is Chad Campbell, who really should have won here in '08. I must be mad but he gets one more last try!

Selections:

Stuart Appleby @ [55.0]
Ben Crane @ [60.0]
Gary Woodland @ [75.0]
Chad Campbell @ [120.0]

I'll be back on Friday with the Live Golf Blog.

It's not been a great week for our man, as both round three leaders hang on to win but Steve's looking forward to Augusta now, where Rose may just be a value bet......

Steve's in-running plays haven't exactly shone and Karlberg's flopped but Lara and Bubba could yet save the week.......

Mickelson may have scuppered his bet last year but Steve's playing the percentages again this time around......

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Trophee Hassan II Betting: Spanish trio the ones to follow

Golf Bets / Mike Norman / 29 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Alvaro Velasco is back on the main tour after topping last season’s Challenge Tour money list

"Incredibly, Carlos Del Moral was six over par after just 11 holes on Thursday, but he then played the next 61 holes in exactly the same number as eventual winner Paul Lawrie."

It's another low key affair on the European Tour this week so Mike Norman is pinning his hopes on a trio of Spanish players, two of which have been very consistent in 2011.

Throughout this season Mike will give one selection in each of the Winner, Top Five Finish and Top Ten Finish markets every week a European Tour event is being played.

The Gulf Swing apart, it's been pretty dire stuff on the European Tour so far this year, and with the US Masters just around the corner I'm afraid we've got another low-quality field at this week's Trophee Hassan II.

Welshman Rhys Davies was a bit of a 'find' in 2010 and he's back in Morocco to defend this week, albeit at a completely different venue to where he secured his maiden Tour victory. His form tailed-off somewhat once he was being touted as a candidate for Colin Montgomerie's Ryder Cup team but a reproduction of anything he showed last spring will see him go well at odds of [55.0].

Davies was of course plying his trade on the Challenge Tour the season before last, and it's another Challenge Tour graduate - and two of his Spanish compatriots - that make up my trio of selections this week.

Winner

Rafael Cabrera-Bello continued him impressive run of figures at last week's Open de Andalucia; his 11th place finish was his sixth consecutive top-30 finish on the European Tour. I confess to knowing very little about how the Golf du Palais Royal (it's been 12 years since the Moroccan Open was played here) and Golf de L'Ocean courses will play during the next four days, but the indications are that with wide fairways on both courses, and therefore many greens to be hit in regulation, then someone who can putt well will stand a great chance of winning. Cabrera-Bello ranks fifth in Putts per GIR on the Tour this season which is highly encouraging.

From the footage that I saw of this emerging Spaniard last week he was regularly leaving his approach shots just marginally outside decent birdie range, so it was testament to his ability and consistency that he climbed the leaderboard as the week progressed. If he can dial in his approach shots just a few feet closer this week then the [24.0] currently available in the Winner market could look very big come Sunday afternoon.

Top Five Finish

One player who may well break through on the European Tour this season is that Challenge Tour graduate I referred too earlier - Alvaro Velasco. True, Velasco has played on the main Tour previously - mainly in 2008 and 2009 where he recorded just six top-10 finishes in 55 events - but the relegation to golf's second tier did him no harm at all last season. The 29-year-old recorded six top-10 finishes from just 16 events; his two victories and one second place finish enabling him to finish top of the Challenge Tour money list.

Velasco has finished in the money in seven of the eight events he has played this season, with his best result coming at the prestigious Dubai Desert Classic where he finished in a highly-credible tie for fourth place. A reproduction of that form will give us a great run for our money at odds of [15.0] in this market.

Top Ten Finish

We won't get rich backing Carlos Del Moral at [6.0] but he represents an extremely solid selection. Like Cabrera-Bello he has been very consistent this season, making the cut in all six events he's played and recording four top-25 finishes (including a fifth place finish when he was a selection two weeks ago). And his tie for 36th place last week was far better than it suggests. Incredibly, Del Moral was six over par after just 11 holes on Thursday, but he then played the next 61 holes in exactly the same number as eventual winner Paul Lawrie. He also made a staggering 19 birdies in those 61 holes, more than any other player in the whole field.

Recommended Bets

Back Rafael Cabrera-Bello at [24.0] in Winner market
Back Alvaro Velasco at [15.0] in Top Five Finish market
Back Carlos Del Moral at [6.0] in Top Ten Finish market

Total pts bet this season (one pt bet per selection): 27
Total pts returned: 10.75
2011 European Tour season Profit/Loss: -16.25

The European Tour visits Spain this week for a tournament hosted by loveable veteran Miguel Angel Jimenez, but Mike Norman finds reasons to oppose both Jimenez and his classy countryman Alvaro Quiros....

There's a new venue for the European Tour this week but Mike Norman is not put off by having no course form to go on, he's been studying hard he tells us....

There are some marquee groups teeing off at Doral tomorrow but there's value to be found right through the card on day one of the latest WGC event....

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