Arkle Chase News: Don't overlook Menorah warns Hobbs

News / Timeform / 01 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Menorah and Richard Johnson

"I do think he has been a bit unlucky, his schooling at home has always been very good."

Philip Hobbs believes the stronger guaranteed pace in the Racing Post Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival will be of great benefit to Menorah.

The former classy hurdler, who was rated 159 (7 lb higher than his current chase figure) over timber by Timeform, has a tendency to give the odd fence a clout in his races since being sent over bigger obstacles.

Menorah was a faller at Doncaster when last seen, but Philip Hobbs expects the faster pace a week on Tuesday will help his jumping in one of the hottest renewals of the race for years.

He said: "I do think he has been a bit unlucky, his schooling at home has always been very good.

"In his races he jumps 90% of his fences very well but of course 90% is not good enough, so we hope we can get everything together on the day.

"A strong pace will suit him much better - these muddling novice chases haven't been ideal.

"Sprinter Sacre looks as though he might be exceptional, Peddlers Cross obviously disappointed last time.

"Cue Card would be a danger if he was back to his best and he'll probably make the running, so we'll see.

"His schooling has been brilliant since he fell. Maybe Doncaster might even have taught him a lesson, you never know," the Minehead handler told At The Races.

Menorah is currently trading at [15.0] for the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham on March 13, with Sprinter Sacre the [2.32] market leader, Peddlers Cross second best at [5.5] and last year's Supreme Novices' winner Al Ferof at [6.4].

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Timeform ratings are in fine form! Among 5 top-rated winners at Kempton on Saturday was Nacarat (BSP [5.58]). Click HERE for today's cards & ratings.

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Paul Nicholls: Don't forget about Denman!

Latest News / Paul Nicholls / 02 December 2011 / Leave a Comment

Denman is 'a seriously big price' at 26 for the Gold Cup, according to Paul Nicholls

"We saw how Kauto Star’s Gold Cup price plummeted after the Betfair Chase, and I can tell you now that Denman will be as fit at Leopardstown at the end of the month as Kauto was at Haydock."

Amid all the excitement about stablemates such as Kauto Star and Master Minded, Denman has been out of the spotlight in recent months. But Paul insists there is plenty to come from 'the forgotten horse'...

It is not often that one of the best horses in recent decades slips under the radar. But does anyone remember a horse called Denman?

You may vaguely recall him. Big sort, who we have had a bit of luck with since he joined us in 2005 after winning his sole start in an Irish point.

Yes, that's the one. The 10-length winner of the Sun Alliance in 2007; the Hennessy winner in 2007 and 2009 who managed to squeeze in a seven-length defeat of Kauto Star in the 2008 Gold Cup in between. And runner-up in two other Cheltenham Gold Cups besides.

But how many calls have I taken about him this season? I am struggling to recall one outside of the usual stable tour visits.

I know we have been fortunate enough to enjoy success after success on big Saturdays this season, with Kauto Star, Big Buck's, Master Minded and any number of potential stars beginning to show their hand.

But I am still a touch surprised at how Denman has failed to attract any column inches.

That actually suits me just fine after the "should he, shouldn't he?" nonsense with Kauto before his win in the Betfair Chase. But I can tell you that the "Forgotten Horse", as I shall call him for now, is in great order as we prepare him for the Lexus at Leopardstown on December 28.

Rather like Kauto Star, I suspect that too many people remember Denman for his disappointing sign-off to last season, in his case at Aintree. But focus on his Newbury run - leading him in after the race there, you would have sworn he had won his third Hennessy, not finished third - or his second in the Gold Cup, and then we are talking.

And talking that he looks seriously big price at 26 on Betfair for the Gold Cup next March.

We saw how Kauto Star's Gold Cup price plummeted after the Betfair Chase, and I can tell you now that Denman will be as fit at Leopardstown at the end of the month as Kauto was at Haydock. He will be 100%. It would be asking him too much to win in the manner Kauto did, but this horse is not to be dismissed lightly in any company, even at 11.

Put it this way, I would like to see someone go in his box and tell him, anyway!

Susie May looks after him this season and is doing a great job. He goes well for a girl, and is certainly not the easiest to handle as he can be a very awkward so-and-so.

We took him for a racecourse gallop this morning - he will have another in a fortnight's time - and he went really, really well. He went 2m under Daryl in company with Tidal Bay (Nick Scholfield) and Noland (Harry Skelton), and looked great.

And now we will put some real hard graft into him, stoking the work into him, and he can take it, too.

He will have two or three canters up the hill every day apart from Sunday, as well as an hour and an quarter on the walker each day. As well as regular fast work too.

He came in with Kauto a fortnight after everything else, on August 1, and was as fat as a pig. But he knows he isn't on holiday any more, and is getting meaner and leaner. But he is thriving on the work and his appetite for the job is still readily apparent.

So the Lexus, a race he won in 2007 before winning the Gold Cup that season, is the plan and then straight to Cheltenham.

I have always said that I hope Kauto Star and Denman, the best of friends, will spend their retirement together in a field somewhere. And I have always said that when they do retire, I will make a comeback in the saddle to take Denman hunting, with Ruby on Kauto. But that is hopefully a long way off just yet.

Because the last thing that Denman would want is for his great mate to be solely in the Gold Cup limelight, without getting a look-in of his own.

And what a sign off it would be were he turn up again Cheltenham in March.

Forgotten for the time being maybe. But certainly not gone - not just yet.

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US Open Reaction: Salute magnificent McIlroy but don't back a repeat of the Tiger era

Golf > General > US Open Reaction: Salute magnificent McIlroy but don't back a repeat of the Tiger era

View Market General / Paul Krishnamurty / 21 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Woods and McIlroy together in California last year

"Golf and golf betting are completely different than they were during the Tiger era, and it would be unrealistic to expect Rory or anyone else to emulate Woods' dominance."

Paul Krishnamurty was as impressed as anyone by the young Irishman's performance at Congressional. However, it's unlikely that he will emulate Tiger's other-stratospheric feats and punters should remember that.

For now, we must bask in the moment. We've just witnessed an incredible feat, and a new British sporting hero has emerged. With some of the other 'icons' that represent, say, our football teams in mind, we should celebrate the fact that Rory McIlroy seems such a likeable, genuine bloke. It is unbridled good news for British golf, in particular Northern Ireland, which has now produced the last two US Open winners. Rory's breakthrough is exactly what the sport needed, especially with its talisman Tiger Woods increasingly resembling a spent force.

Having spent a relatively quiet trading weekend pondering Rory's sensational performance, I've concluded that it was the fourth best I've ever seen. For the record, the other three were all produced by Tiger - in no particular order, his first Masters victory, by 12 strokes just a few months after turning pro. His 15-shot victory in the 2000 US Open at Pebble Beach, and again when landing this major in 2008, despite playing 90 holes with a broken leg.

I couldn't agree more with Steve Rawling's analysis that after such a performance, Rory is the real world number one, even if the rankings don't quite reflect it yet. Moreover, having captured the public imagination in spectacular style, he's certainly the punters' favourite, as illustrated by the massive gamble underway for next month's Open Championship. McIlroy's odds for the Sandwich showpiece have halved into [7.4] over the last few days, and were he to win in the meantime, would probably shorten to Tiger-esque levels.

At this point, serious punters must take a step back. No matter how good they are, everyone has their price, and I would struggle to manufacture an argument for backing any golfer nowadays at such short odds. Ultimately, golf and golf betting are completely different than they were during the Tiger era, and it would be unrealistic to expect Rory or anyone else to match Woods' former dominance.

Tiger transformed golf single-handedly. Before that first Masters title, Woods shared favouritism with much older players like Greg Norman, Nick Faldo and Fred Couples. Within months it became clear that they were yesterday's men. That isn't the case with Luke Donald and Lee Westwood, who are at their peak right now and remain as likely as anyone to win big events.

For roughly a decade, Woods was playing a different game to the rest. He had seemingly super-human ability, and a machine-like temperament, capable of stepping up a gear whenever required. I always argued that Tiger's only sporting equivalent was Sir Donald Bradman, whose 99.99 Test average remains in a completely different stratosphere to anyone else. However good Rory is or will become, it is unlikely that will ever be said of him.

Woods inspired a new generation, that would take several years to emerge. McIlroy is the first to reach super-stardom, but there is no shortage of alternatives. The USA has Rickie Fowler, Italy has Matteo Manassero, Japan has Ryo Ishikawa. Emerging golf superpowers like South Korea can boast numerous brilliant youngsters. My favourite is Aussie Jason Day, who did me an enormous favour yesterday by winning 'without McIlroy'. To finish runner-up on both his Masters and US Open debuts, two majors that usually reward experience and penalise novices, is a huge achievement. Day has less top-notch experience than Rory, and could well reach the same level over the next year or so.

Whoever fares best amongst them, dominating that lot will be impossible in my view. Moreover, by the time Rory hits 30, there's bound to be another dozen or so youngsters emerging, and prompting exactly this type of discussion.

More immediately though, we must look to Sandwich, where Rory's chance depends on the weather. In calm conditions, McIlroy is probably the best links player around. Even before he turned pro, he'd mastered the secrets of links golf, growing up in Northern Ireland. However, in windy conditions, Rory's high ball-flight has looked a serious handicap, and he lacks the verstility to cope. Take last year's Open for example, where he began with 63 in benign conditions at St Andrews, only to follow up with 80 when the weather turned for the worse the following day.

With his reputation and popularity at an all-time high, I expect the money will continue to flood in before the Open, but punters would be well advised to check the draw and weather forecast before parting with any cash.

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Serie A Betting: Don't underestimate teams with little to play for

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Palermo boss Delio Rossi

"Parma may have improved lately, but they’re still not as good a side as Palermo, and I’ll certainly be laying Parma at what is a ridiculously short price."

In years gone by a club that needed to win against a club that had nothing to play for meant just one outcome, but perhaps not anymore says Dave Farrar.

Parma v Palermo

A few weeks ago, Parma's fans were getting used to the fact that they'd be supporting a Serie B side again next season, but in the last two weeks the team has dredged up a couple of remarkable performances to beat both Inter at home and then Udinese away, and now Parma find themselves three points above the drop zone with others fading fast. The job isn't done yet, though, and another resurgent team in the shape of Palermo will provide stern opposition on Sunday.

Parma are [2.02] to win, and it's easy to see why that price is as short as it is; the home team have it all to play for, the away team are safely in the top 10, and so, as the Serie A way goes, Parma will be gifted the win. We'd do well to remember that, at the start of the month, Parma welcomed a Bari team here which had pretty much already been relegated. It was a marriage of convenience if ever there was one but Bari won 2-1 and the cynics had discovered that the ground had moved beneath them. And trust me, if this match is to be a fix in favour of the home team, then Parma would be [1.3] to win, not [2.02].

Parma may have improved lately, but they're still not as good a side as Palermo, and I'll certainly be laying Parma at what is a ridiculously short price. Despite their relatively static position in the table, Palermo's players have good reason to be motivated. The club's maverick President, Maurizio Zamparini, has said that Delio Rossi will be in a job next season, but given the respect that the players have for Rossi, and the trigger happy nature of Zamparini's stewardship so far, they'll want to make sure that they finish as high up the table as possible and give Zamparini no cause whatsoever to sack Rossi for a second time in the calendar year.

I'm tempted by the [4.6] about a Palermo win, and those of you who like to split your stakes and lay one team while backing the other should take advantage of that price. I'm not getting greedy though, and will lay a Parma team for whom a draw wouldn't be a disaster.

Recommendation: Lay Parma against Palermo @ [2.02]

Fiorentina v Udinese

Another team with absolutely everything to gain from a victory, Udinese, travel to Florence, and the men from the Friuli are being priced up far shorter than an away side would normally be for a trip like this. The reason for that, of course, is once again the perception that Fiorentina aren't at all bothered about winning, while Udinese are desperate to. That's why we're able to back Fiorentina at [2.6] and that's well worth doing.

Udinese will very possibly have to do without their three best players on Sunday; Gokhan Inler is definitely out through suspension, Alexis Sanchez has probably played his last game for the club after picking up a muscle injury, and Antonio Di Natale is struggling after reporting that he's feeling unwell.

While the excellent Udinese coach Francesco Guidolin must try and make the best of the players that he has available, it's somehow hard to see the Fiorentina coach Sinisa Mihaijlovic sending out a team and allowing them to play at anything other than their best. There are players with points to prove, most notably Adrian Mutu, and with Riccardo Montolivo and Valon Behrami rejoined by Juan Vargas in a powerful looking midfield, there's every reason to suspect that Fiorentina's front three could have a fun afternoon.

La Viola won this fixture 4-1 last season, and while I can't see that kind of scoreline, the home side should certainly be backed at a price which is based on motivation, rather than reality.

Recommendation: Back Fiorentina to beat Udinese @ [2.6]

Dave Farrar believes both his featured games will provide plenty of goals this weekend, but perhaps the best bet could be for Lazio to grab a famous victory at Inter....

After this weekend's action we're closer to knowing who will be winning the major European leagues and that includes Serie A, after Napoli lost at home to Udinese. It's now AC Milan's to lose, says Ben Lyttleton....

Inter are all but out of this title race in the eyes of Dave Farrar and it's left to AC Milan and Napoli to fight to the bitter death. They should both win pretty comfortably this weekend......

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Serie A Betting: Don't rule out the Milan home defeat

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 25 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Antonio Cassano (ineligible in Europe) returns to the side but it may not be enough to beat Napoli

"I’m tempted by the [5.3] which is available about Napoli causing a shock, but without Lavezzi they’re likely to be happier with a draw than they might have been."

There's a long way to go yet in this season's Serie A race and they may well drop points as soon as Monday night when Napoli come calling. Elsewhere Udinese can spring a bit of an upset of their own.

Palermo v Udinese

The Palermo president Maurizio Zamparini has been winning friends and influencing people again this week, telling the press in Sicily that the recent poor run of the men in pink and black is "all the coach's fault."

Delio Rossi and the Udinese boss Francesco Guidolin will be able to compare notes on Signor Zamparini, as Guidolin has been fired three times from the Palermo hotseat. Guidolin is in the happier position at the moment, with his Udinese side the team of 2011 so far, and now that Alexis Sanchez is back from suspension, they're likely to give Palermo a real run for their money. Fabrizio Miccoli is out with an injury for the home team, and with Palermo having lost their last two matches in disappointing fashion, Udinese may just be a bit of value at [3.5] to go to the Renzo Barbera and win.

Recommendation: Back Udinese to beat Palermo @ [3.5]

Roma v Parma

While European football fans were concentrating on the Champions League in midweek, there was a significant and slightly surprising result in Serie A, but it's one that will have passed many people by.

In their first game since Claudio Ranieri left the club, Roma went to Bologna and won 1-0 in what was a pretty dull game. The result was significant because Roma don't really do dull, having conceded fourteen goals in their previous four Serie A matches, but in a new formation, and with a new impetus, they despatched a decent Bologna side fairly comfortably.

It seems too simplistic to say that senior players had fallen out with Ranieri, and that the group had stopped trying, but rumours coming out of the club suggest that this was the case, and that Roma might be set for a focused and successful end of the season. Caretaker manager Vincenzo Montella is organised, intelligent, and popular, and that might be enough.

Roma should certainly be too good for Parma, who have hidden from the outside world this week after a desperate 2-2 draw against Cesena, and they're only four points away from relegation after a terrible 2011 so far. It could well be a second clean sheet in a row for Roma, and they're always dangerous going forward, so rate good value at odds against to give the visitors a goal start on the Asian Handicap.

Recommendation ROMA -1 on Asian Handicap @ [2.1]

Milan v Napoli

The Monday evening game in Serie A is unquestionably the match of the weekend, and quite possibly the ninety minutes that will define the rest of the season. Milan go into the weekend three points clear of Napoli, and five points clear of Inter, although by the time that these two play on Monday night, Inter could well have reduced the gap to two.

Milan are no shoo-ins to win the title, and this is the first of seven really difficult games which face them on a difficult run-in. The Rossoneri are definitely too short at [1.74] to finish the season as champions, with a trip to Juventus to come next week, and the Milan derby to follow not long afterwards.

The game is being played on Monday night because of Napoli's Europa League match against Villareal, and once the initial disappointment of being eliminated has abated, the Neapolitans will probably see that their ability to focus on Serie A is a good thing.

Tottenham exposed Milan's occasional lack of inspiration in front of goal, and Napoli are able to do likewise, although they will be seriously hampered by the absense of the suspended Ezequiel Lavezzi. I'm tempted by the [5.3] which is available about Napoli causing a shock, but without Lavezzi they're likely to be happier with a draw than they might have been.

Milan are still missing Andrea Pirlo, but those of you who were unimpressed by them in the Champions League should remember that the Serie A version of Milan features Antonio Cassano, who can provide the creativity which they so sorely lacked against Spurs, but is ineligible to play in Europe. The Napoli win can't go unbacked purely on value terms (after all both Roma and Juve have won at Milan this season), but it should be supported with a bet on under 2.5 goals at [1.83]. Napoli will stifle for a half, and then try and sprit away a win. They may well succeed, but I doubt that it will be pretty to watch.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 Goals in Milan v Napoli @ [1.83]
Napoli to win @ [5.3]

There's a long way to go yet in this season's Serie A race and they may well drop points as soon as Monday night when Napoli come calling. Elsewhere Udinese can spring a bit of an upset of their own....

The Tinkerman has gone but whoever replaces him at Roma - and it might yet be the current Chelsea boss - will need to overhaul an ageing squad, says Ben Lyttleton....

Both Fiorentina and Sampdoria look sharp in front of goal so it's worth backing overs when they meet this weekend, says Dave Farrar. Meanwhile, how fortunes have changed since the last time Udinese met Brescia and an entertaining Saturday night...

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