"Punters with short memories would do well to remember that this is a filly who was good enough to finish second to Danedream in last year's Arc on a day when the next five home were proven Group 1 winners like Snow Fairy, So You Think, St Nicholas Abbey, Meandre and Sarafina."
Day two of York's Ebor Festival and fillies take the spotlight from Frankel. The Fugue dominates the market for the featured Yorkshire Oaks, but Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham feels a French raider could provide a stronger value angle in the second instalment of his in running blog.
French raider Shareta the Oaks value
The first point to make about this Thursday's Yorkshire Oaks (due off at 15:40) is that several fillies who would have enhanced the race - notably Snow Fairy, Dancing Rain and Great Heavens - are missing from the field.
The second point to make is that The Fugue gives the strong impression she is the clear pick of the four three-year-olds on show.
And the third point is that The Fugue might still have her hands full if French raider Shareta brings her A-game to the Knavesmire.
Some people seem to think The Fugue could struggle to stay this trip after quickening smartly to land Goodwood's Nassau Stakes over ten furlongs. Personally, I think that view is deeply flawed. The Fugue came home powerfully from a poor position after a torrid passage when third behind Was and Shirocco Star in the Oaks and is out of a Ribblesdale runner-up who has produced a two mile winner at stud.
In short, I suspect The Fugue will take a deal of beating - and she certainly deserves to be favourite - but Shareta's best form gives her similar claims and her style of racing makes her a viable back to lay alternative.
Punters with short memories would do well to remember that this is a filly who was good enough to finish second to Danedream in last year's Arc on a day when the next five home were proven Group 1 winners like Snow Fairy, So You Think, St Nicholas Abbey, Meandre and Sarafina.
Four more defeats have followed, but I'm happy to excuse several of them and Shareta looked much more like her old self when splitting Meandre and Danedream in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud.
Meandre followed that win with another G1 success in Germany, while Danedream left her homeland to land the Betfair King George at Ascot.
The form looks very solid, then, and Shareta's freewheeling style could see her trading at a fair bit shorter than the current 4.67/2 and bigger if Lemaire can secure an unhurried time in front.
Fierce pace could help Cheongsam strike Gold in Lowther
Plenty sound judges will expect John Gosden and William Buick to have struck already by the time The Fugue lines up.
And they may be right given that Newfangled is trading at around 1.8810/11 for the Lowther Stakes at 14.30, but I'm prepared to oppose this unbeaten filly for the simple reason that she raced with fierce aggression when dominating Royal Ascot's Albany Stakes and could face stern competition for the lead here from the very speedy Rosdhu Queen and battle hardened French Listed winner Baileys Jubilee.
If I'm right in expecting a searching pace then the stage could be set for at least one long priced holdup filly to have a say.
Step forward The Gold Cheongsam, who was almost five lengths behind Newfangled in the Albany but has thrived since and made short work of a host of winners from a BHA mark of 89 at Newmarket on her latest start.
When your fancy needs to find five lengths to take revenge on her main rival you want a price for your money.
And at that price I'm happy to take my chances with a view to trading out at much shorter if she proves as progressive as I suspect she is.
(Editor's note - Unfortunately Graham's fancy The Gold Cheongsam is now a non-runner, but we've left Graham's thoughts on the race un-edited as he mentions how he expects the race to pan out from a pace angle)
Rocky looks on solid ground
The rest of the York card is tough from a punting viewpoint, but Rocky Ground and Anderiego both warrant a positive mention in the 14.00 and the 15.05 respectively.
Rocky Ground faces a host of useful winners in the DBS Stakes but looked smart on his Yarmouth debut and shaped as if firmly on the up despite being pipped when odds on at Newmarket on his latest start.
Limited evidence thus far suggests he's the sort of easy goer who will catch the eye in running, while Anderiego is thriving under the skilful care of the up-and-coming David O'Meara and holds clear back to lay potential for the Betfair, Don't Settle For Less Handicap judged on the way he has quickened to win two useful handicaps over this course and distance recently.
Thursday Recommendations
Back Rocky Ground in the 14.00 and lay off at 3.55/2 in running
Back Anderiego in the 15.05 and lay off at 3.55/2 in running
Back Shareta in the 15:40 and lay off at 2.56/4 in running
There are no comments on this article.
No comments:
Post a Comment