The Punter 
/ Steven Rawlings / 10 June 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Francesco Molinari at the storm threatened Italian Open
“The market is assuming some very good rounds this afternoon in Italy and it could well be right but I felt Molly was worth getting onside at over [8.0].”
Molinari hits the front in Turin but will he kick on? And in Memphis it's as much a case of whom our man didn't back as who he did...
13.25- June 10, 2011
Although somewhat contradictory to my post this morning, I've just sat and bit by bit got a small bet on Francesco Molinari matched at [8.4]. The market is assuming some very good rounds this afternoon in Italy and it could well be right but I felt Molly was worth getting onside at over [8.0], given he's still tied for the lead, though possibly not for long...
10:30 - June 10, 2011
I appear to be in a state of paralysis at the Italian Open - unable or unwilling to add to my initial wagers. Obviously I regret not getting Francesco Molinari onside, as he's making relentless progress up the leaderboard again this morning - indeed he's now reached the summit. But something stops me from taking the plunge on him now. Perhaps it's the memory of him getting into the thick of things here two years ago before messing up completely?
With the rain-softened greens scoring is very low and anyone making a bogey goes backwards very quickly so I envisage a fast changing leaderboard today and given the threat of delays due to yet more rain forecast, I'm more than happy to bide my time.
Of my three pre-event picks, Alejandro Canizares is currently five behind Molly but he hasn't started his second round yet and Gary Boyd, who was also one of this week's Find Me A 100 Winner picks, is just one back with eight to play this morning. George Coetzee looks out of it.
I may regret not backing Molinari but I'm chuffed to bits with how I've played the St Jude Classic so far. I could very easily have layed out plenty of cash before the off, fancying quite strongly the first four in the market. What I didn't fancy was their prices however and letting them all go un-backed has proved a great tactic. Zach Johnson and David Toms look out of it. Brian Gay is six off the lead and I'm not convinced by Lee Westwood.
Of my two bets before the off, Ben Crane yet again struggled. He's been suffering from various ailments and whether there's still an injury issue or he's just gone off the boil I've no idea. Either way he appears to be out of the reckoning all ready but there's better news with Heath Slocum. After a decent finish to his first round, Heath sits on -2, just three off David Mathis' early lead.
The market is headed by Lee Westwood (on -1) and Robert Karlsson (-4) but I'm not overly tempted by either. Westwood's game didn't look as sharp as it has been last night and Karlsson may be a bit too close to the lead too soon and I fancy he might wobble a bit today. I have added three more picks though...
Y E Yang looked a fair price beforehand at around [80.0] and after a level par start [70.0] is more than fairly priced. I've backed Stephen Ames more times than I care to remember but he's done me more than the odd good turn. He's finally shown a modicum of form and after shooting -1, I felt he was worth a very small investment. And finally, from far leftfield, check out veteran Steve Flesch's scorecard. Woefully out of form, his first nine of four over par was far from a shock but he then shot -4 on the front nine - his second nine. Did something click? I felt it was worth throwing a few quid at him at over [300.0] to find out. He's a multiple winner and he's been known to find form from nowhere before.
Italian Open Pre-event picks:
Alejandro Canizares @ [90.0]
George Coetzee @ [130.0]
Gary Boyd @ an average of [160.0]
In-running play:
Francesco Molinari @ [8.4] - After round two
St Jude Classic pre-event picks:
Ben Crane @ [50.0]
Heath Slocum @ [120.0]
In-running plays:
Y E Yang @ [70.0] - After round one
Stephen Ames @ [140.0] - After round one
Steve Flesch @ an average of [320.0] - After round one
Instinct and the market say one thing, but the stats say another. Do you back YES or NO to an ace at Congressional?...
Steve's been thumbing through the record books and if past results are anything to go on, it's going to be tight......
Loath to back the short-priced runners, it's a quiet start this week for our man but he has picked out a few outsiders to get the ball rolling......
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