Premier League 
/ Andrew Atherley / 04 May 2011 / Leave a Comment 
United prevailed when the teams met in Europe but who will win on Sunday?
"The value goals bet on Sunday has to be over 2.5 goals at [2.12]."
Manchester United v Chelsea is once again the defining showdown of the Premier League season and a couple of key trends are well worth noting for Sunday's clash at Old Trafford, says Andrew Atherley.
The two modern-day giants of English football have shared the past six titles between them and in that time the head-to-heads have been as tight as might be expected. Eight of the 22 meetings have ended all-square (a draw rate of 36%) while Chelsea have won eight and United six.
The first noteworthy factor is the under/over 2.5 goals pattern. Unders might be expected to be well in the ascendancy in light of the overall tightness of the contests, but the split is not that great (55-45 in favour of unders).
And there appears to be a Jose Mourinho factor in the stats. When the master of the suffocating game was in charge at Stamford Bridge, 70% of United-Chelsea clashes had under 2.5 goals, which is in line with the generally more defensive approach that prevailed in the Premier League during Mourinho's time in England (Rafa Benitez at Liverpool also appears to have been an influential factor in the same trend).
Since Mourinho left, matches have swung towards over 2.5 goals (58%) and the past three meetings at Old Trafford have had overs, which indicates a more open approach in recent seasons.
In fact, if the Mourinho years are stripped out of the figures for the past 10 seasons, 58% has been the overall percentage of overs in United-Chelsea matches. If the Mourinho-Benitez era is seen as a blip in the general trend for the Premier League to be entertaining and high-scoring, which the overall league figures for under/over 2.5 goals suggest to be the case, the value goals bet on Sunday has to be over 2.5 goals at [2.12].
The other notable trend for Sunday's match is that the home win has become the dominant result in top-four showdowns, which means Chelsea will have to turn that around to snatch the victory that would blow the title race wide open.
Overall in the past 10 seasons the home team has won 50% of top-four clashes, with an away win rate of 26%, but since the start of last season 16 out of 23 (70%) have gone to the home team.
Prior to the start of last season, the 10-year average for home wins in top-four clashes was 48% and now the 10-year rolling average is 50%, which indicates even-money or just above for a home win is fair value.
With United [2.48] for the win on Sunday they look the team to be with, especially as their 10-year home-win average in top-four clashes is 59%.
Another sign of the trend towards higher goals tallies in the Premier League has been evident in matches between the bottom six teams, who now look to be the only remaining candidates for the drop.
This weekend's big match in that category is West Ham v Blackburn on Saturday (bottom versus fifth-bottom) and the value will be over 2.5 goals if it follows the prevailing trend.
Sixteen of the 27 bottom-six clashes this season (59%) have had over 2.5 goals, which reflects (but outstrips) the current league average of 54% over 2.5 goals. The return to higher-scoring tallies in the Premier League may still not be factored fully into the odds (just four seasons ago the overs average was a lowly 45%) and, with desperation also taking hold at this stage of the season, overs looks the value call in West Ham v Blackburn.
Recommended Bets
Over 2.5 goals in West Ham v Blackburn at [1.83]
Over 2.5 goals in Manchester United v Chelsea at [2.12]
Manchester United to beat Chelsea at [2.48]
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