Tipping 
/ Mark Powell-Bevan / 02 May 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Who will handle the Chester bends the best?
"Mount Athos was bought from John Hills for 190,000 guineas last October and immediately started to pay some of that back when successful on his first start for David Wachman, taking a Dundalk handicap in April in good style."
Those looking at the Chester Cup on Wednesday could be forgiven for mistaking it for another famous handicap, with the names of no less than three Grand National winning trainers appearing alongside horses towards the top of the betting, but Timeform's Mark Powell-Bevan reckons it's better to concentrate on the Irish-trained contingent...
Amongst those horses trained by National winners is Overturn, handled by the most recent one, Donald McCain, who saddled Ballabriggs to success at Aintree in early-April. Overturn himself has a mixed background, having won the Northumberland Plate on the Flat in 2010, in between three wins over hurdles at Ayr (including the Scottish Champion) and the Galway Hurdle. McCain knows what it takes to have a big winner under both codes and Overturn was right back to his best when third in the latest renewal of the Scottish Champion. Overturn is clearly well handicapped off a BHA mark of 99 judged on his high-class hurdles form and the draw (stall 1) has been kind for a front runner as he is.
Dirar is another towards the head of the market representing a Grand National winner, in his case Gordon Elliott (Silver Birch in 2007). Elliott is one of the emerging stars of the jumps game, as highlighted by a couple of wins at this year's Cheltenham Festival, and is no stranger Flat success, either, Dirar having provided him with a landmark success on the level when taking the Ebor at York under Jamie Spencer last year. Dirar finished third to Overturn in last summer's Galway Hurdle and showed his current well-being with a creditable eighth in the County at Cheltenham, but he's got a bit on his plate back in a handicap from a mark of 107.
The final one of the trio of National winners is David Pipe, who landed the Aintree showpiece with Comply Or Die in 2008. Pipe is another to have already tasted big-race Flat success, having won this very race last year with Mamlook, who is back for a repeat bid. However, the 2010 race was a muddling renewal where position counted for as much as form and, with a 4 lb higher mark to contend with this time around, Mamlook looks to have plenty to do, for all he too is another to have shown his well-being over jumps this spring.
Ahead of all three of those in the betting is Mount Athos, the winner of last year's Melrose handicap at York. Mount Athos was bought from John Hills for 190,000 guineas last October and immediately started to pay some of that back when successful on his first start for David Wachman, taking a Dundalk handicap in April in good style. Unlike those already mentioned, Mount Athos has his stamina to prove, as he will be stepping up four furlongs in trip, but the Chester Cup is rarely the test that some of these staying handicaps can be and there's every chance he will stay as he attempts to give his owner Dr Marwan Koukash another Chester Cup winner after Bulwark in 2008, especially as he will likely be given a waiting ride after coming off worst of all with the draw.
Red Cadeaux was among the market leaders for the 2010 renewal of the Chester Cup and is so again, having shaped well when second to Cosmic Sun (reopposes) at Kempton on his reappearance, leaving the impression he'll come on for the run after disputing a strong pace. Red Cadeaux was unlucky not to finish closer last year, hampered at either end of the race, and even though he has an 8 lb higher mark this time, he has to come into the reckoning. Cosmic Sun is closely matched with Red Cadeaux and, although he's now 10 lb higher than for the first of his two polytrack wins this year, it wouldn't be a massive surprise were he to step up again given the form of the yard.
There are a number of others to consider, among them Admiral Barry, who progressed rapidly through the handicap ranks last season (won valuable handicaps at Galway and the Curragh) and was the long-time ante-post favourite for last year's Cesarewitch at Newmaket (poorly drawn and never a threat). The draw has been much kinder to Admiral Barry on Wednesday and he's the type to continue his progress this year, so he's one to have on side along with Mount Athos, who's unexposed for his new yard and could overcome the outside box, hopefully under one of those textbook Spencer rides.
Recommendations
Back Mount Athos @ [11.0] and Admiral Barry @ [12.0] in the Chester Cup
Two backs and a lay for Monday from Timeform's US team......
A really big week of racing in Ireland kicks off with three Bank Holiday meetings and we have got one bet at each........
Timeform go through the runners for the Jubilee Handicap......
No comments:
Post a Comment