Tuesday, March 15, 2011

FA Cup Betting Preview: Stoke City v West Ham United

FA Cup RSS / Maxliu / 12 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Scott Parker lead West Ham to victory over Stoke?

Can Scott Parker lead West Ham to victory over Stoke?

"Although I like the 3.7 on West Ham on value grounds, I’m going for the draw at 3.45."

Has Avram Grant got the cup competition midas touch or can Stoke avenge last week's defeat when the Hammers go to the Britannia on Sunday?

The Britannia Stadium is a tough place to go for even the sturdiest opponents. Stoke have made their home a veritable fortress in recent years, so much so that the likes of Sir Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger regard a win there as a considerable achievement.

But West Ham, who travel to Stoke for an FA Cup quarter-final on Sunday, boast an impressive record in the Potteries, having won there twice in the last three seasons. They picked up their first points of the season at the Britannia in a 1-1 draw back in September, knocked Stoke out of the Carling Cup and won 3-0 when the teams met at Upton Park last weekend.

Talismanic skipper Scott Parker had an injection before the game last week so that he could play through the pain barrier. He's a doubt for Sunday but Avram Grant says the midfielder is desperate to play and, considering how important Parker is, I expect to see him turn out. For Stoke, Matthew Etherington has handed Tony Pulis a massive boost by passing a fitness test following a back injury.

Match Odds

West Ham know how to beat Stoke and Avram Grant has a canny knack of taking struggling sides far in Cup competitions. Remember the Hammers' journey to the semi-finals of the League Cup this season, the relegated and bankrupt Portsmouth he led to the FA Cup final, even his run to the Champions League decider with a divided Chelsea squad.

Grant rallies his players to block out league form when it comes to knockout competition. But he needn't do that on Sunday because the Hammers are attempting to win their third match in a row. Stoke's favouritism at [2.16] is down to the Britannia's reputation as a tough place for away teams. Their form is poor, they've won only one of their last five - in the last round of this competition against Brighton - but, although I like the [3.7] on West Ham on valie grounds alone, I'm going for the draw at [3.45].

Over 2.5 Goals

Two of the three matches between these teams this term have broken the 2.5 goals barrier. The game that rewarded unders backers was at the Britannia. West Ham have scored three goals in each of their last two away games - against Blackpool and West Brom - but Tony Pulis' team have a considerably better defensive record than both those sides. Grant has said that he will adapt his team to combat Stoke's physical play so this one could well be tight. Back under 2.5 goals at [1.74] and, if you're feeling brave, back under 1.5 at [3.2].


Booking Odds

There were three bookings - all for Stoke players - at Upton Park last weekend and five yellows in the league clash here in the autumn. The quarter-finals of the FA Cup should yield a feistier contest, with the likes of Scott Parker and Rory Delap set to mix it up in midfield, so I'm backing nine points or above.

To Qualify

Having beaten Stoke twice at Upton Park this season the Hammers will be happy to take a draw and get psyched up for a replay in front of their own fans. Yes, Avram Grant's priority is to remain in the Premier League but he and the club's owners understand the importance of a Cup run. If things do end even on Saturday, I'd be putting all my eggs in the East Londoners' basket. So back them to qualify now at [2.3]. If it ends a draw you'd collect on that bet as well as be in a good position in this market as West Ham would become favourites ahead of the replay at Upton Park.

Best Bet: Back West Ham to qualify @ [2.3]
Recommended bet: Back the draw @ [3.45].

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