Italian Football 
/ Dave Farrar / 18 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Will Alberto Gilardino be celebrating on Sunday?
The last three matches between Bologna and Palermo point to a feast at the Dall’Ara, and there’s every reason to play over 3.5 goals at [3.4]
Both Fiorentina and Sampdoria look sharp in front of goal so it's worth backing overs when they meet this weekend, says Dave Farrar. Meanwhile, how fortunes have changed since the last time Udinese met Brescia and an entertaining Saturday night is expected in Emilia-Romagna.
Fiorentina v Sampdoria
It's not a vintage Serie A weekend, and so this game at the Artemio Franchi probably counts as the most attractive tie. Fiorentina have had quite a week: Sinisa Mihaijlovic's previously dour side suddenly turned into the great entertainers, producing an astonishing performance by coming from behind to win 4-2 at Palermo, and then counting themselves a little unlucky to lose at home against Inter.
There's no question that Mihaijlovic has decided, perhaps momentarily, to change his footballing philosophy. He's realised that the players that La Viola have are more suited to going forward, and there's certainly a sense that the Serb has let the team off the leash: great news for the likes of Adrian Mutu, Alberto Gilardino, Riccardo Montolivo and Adem Ljajic. Despite losing, Fiorentina created chances against Inter, and are likely to do so again against a Sampdoria side which has also found some much needed threat in front of goal.
Samp scored three in a single half against Bologna last weekend, and yet reverted to type in the Derby della Lanterna against Genoa in midweek, losing 1-0 and failing to show any kind of creativity. It's always been my opinion, though, that you can pretty much discount form from the Genoa derby, as the pressure on both sets of players is unbelievably high, and I expect beleagured coach Mimmo Di Carlo will once again send his team out to attack.
Over 2.5 goals is understandably trading at odds against, as neither of these sides is renowned for being involved in high scoring games, but the change of philosophy from the home team, coupled with Di Carlo's determination to potentially go down fighting, means that we could be set for a surprisingly open game in Tuscany this weekend.
Recommended bets: Back over 2.5 Goals in Fiorentina v Sampdoria @ [2.34]
Udinese v Brescia
I've raved in this column before about the wonderful job that has been done by the Udinese coach Francesco Guidolin and the Zebrette's revival continued under him as last week's victory against Cesena made it four wins out of five and took Udinese to within two points of fourth place.
Guidolin knows that if his team can keep going then they're in with a major chance of a Champions League place, something that seemed an impossible dream when they played Brescia in October: back then, Udinese were bottom of the table. Brescia's fortunes have waned as Udinese's have waxed, and Beppe Iachini's team is now in the bottom three. I don't think that things will get any better for them at the Friuli, but with the excellent Alexis Sanchez suspended, Udinese may not be their usual fluent attacking force and could take a little bit longer than usual to break Brescia down. Over 2.5 goals is trading at [1.85] at the moment and that's too short, although may be worth a look in Betfair's in-play market.
I prefer to think that Udinese will win relatively comfortably and, even though Brescia have managed to grab some unlikely goals away from home this season, backing the home side at [7.0] to win by two goals to nil, with at least one of them almost certainly scored by Antonio Di Natale, is the most intelligent play.
Recommended bet: Udinese to win 2-0 @ [7.0]
Bologna v Palermo
Palermo have been doing the job for us in recent weeks in terms of the over 2.5 goals market, and there's no reason to desert them as they travel to another side who are a threat in front of goal. Four of Bologna's last six matches in all competitions have featured at least three goals, and with Palermo determined to bounce back to form after their humiliating defeat at home against Fiorentina last week, we could be set for some real entertainment in Emilia-Romagna on Saturday evening.
Palermo have a defensive injury crisis heading into the game, and with the knowledge that they're in danger of conceding, Delio Rossi seems certain to send his team out in an attacking frame of mind. The last three matches between these teams also point to a feast at the Dall'Ara, and there's every reason to play over 3.5 goals at [3.4]
Recommendation Over 3.5 Goals in Bologna v Palermo @ [3.4]
Both Fiorentina and Sampdoria look sharp in front of goal so it's worth backing overs when they meet this weekend, says Dave Farrar. Meanwhile, how fortunes have changed since the last time Udinese met Brescia and an entertaining Saturday night...
Napoli's trip to Roma offers good punting opportunities but the even better prospects lie in Palermo v Fiorentina where two selections scream out as big value, says Dave Farrar....
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