Spanish Football 
/ Tobias Gourlay / 18 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Levante should be able to improve on the result of their previous visit to Real Madrid.
"Mourinho's current team seems to have recovered its mojo and will be further encouraged by Barca's failure to beat Sporting Gijon"
Tobias Gourlay assays the weekend's Spanish Primera Division action, starting with Levante's return to the scene of an infamous defeat.
Valencia v Sporting Gijon (Saturday 1700 GMT)
Chronology demands this be our first match.
In-play bettors: don't forget Valencia's late-goal habit. Strikes in the last 15 minutes have changed the results of seven of their last eight matches.
Real Madrid v Levante (Saturday 1900 GMT)
Real Madrid get an opportunity to reduce Barcelona's lead at the top of La Liga to two points temporarily. Jose Mourinho's team is in action on Saturday evening, while the champions do not play until Sunday night.
Levante are the lambs to this weekend's slaughter at the Bernabeu. Earlier this month, Luis Garcia's men became the first to beat Villarreal at El Madrigal this season. That highly surprising result probably means little in the face of Real's toweringly perfect home record. Remember too that it is now eight years since one of Mourinho's clubs lost a league game at home. Ah, and also that Levante lost a Copa del Rey game 8-0 here just before Christmas.
Mourinho's current team seems to have recovered its mojo and will be further encouraged by Barca's failure to beat Sporting Gijon a week ago. You won't get much of a price backing them for the straight win, however. And the nature of their most recent home victories is erratic - they have scored four in a couple, while others have been 1-0s.
Time to get creative... What about Levante to score? They have found the back of the net in 10 of their previous 12 away matches this term, while Real have leaked three goals in as many games in the Spanish capital. A lay price of [2.04] in the Real Madrid Clean Sheet market looks too long for their Valencian visitors to grab a consolation at some stage.
Barcelona v Athletic Bilbao (Sunday 2000 GMT)
Barcelona lost to Arsenal in midweek. And last weekend they drew 1-1 with Sporting Gijon. Dani Alves says there is no need for alarm bells, but is the team now beginning the comedown from the peaks of physical fitness they scaled at the end of last year?
Even if that is the case, they will probably get by Athletic Bilbao at the Camp Nou on Sunday. The Lions might battle fiercely at home in San Mames, but usually roll over on visits to the Big Two. They lost 5-1 at the Bernabeu earlier this season and by the same score on last season's trip to the Camp Nou. Since Joaquin Caparros took charge in 2007, they have been beaten in all matches they have played away to Spain's biggest and best.
This column's been championing Pedro's work for a little while now and has picked up some support from a surprising source. Although he is now a couple of starts without a goal, he might still offer value in the To Score market, the more so because of Athletic's record of conceding heavily in this sort of fixture.
Real Sociedad v Real Mallorca (Monday 2000 GMT)
This week, you will have to wait until Monday evening for the best money-making opportunity in Spain. Real Sociedad have scored first in 10 of their 11 games at Inoeta this season, while this weekend's visitors to the Basque country, Real Mallorca, have conceded first in seven of their last eight away matches against teams in the middle third of La Liga. Look for a price somewhere close to evens when the Next Goal market matures and, if it's there, get involved.
It's an awfully long journey from the Balearics for Michael Laudrup's squad and losing won't improve their mood. Unfortunately for them, the numbers say the home side are excellent value for the win at [2.2]. Martin Lasarte's Sociedad have earned a lot of column space with their Barcelona-lite approach to the beautiful game, playing aggressive, attacking football from the first whistle. So long as they are underrated by the layers, that will continue to be the case.
Best Bet: Back Real Sociedad at [2.2] to beat Real Mallorca
Recommended Bet: Lay Real Madrid Clean Sheet at [2.04] v Levante
Tobias Gourlay assays the weekend's Spanish Primera Division action, starting with Levante's return to the scene of an infamous defeat....
Atletico Madrid's own coach does not really believe in them any more. And neither does Tobias Gourlay....
Real Madrid tried very hard to keep pace with Barcelona in the first half of the season, but are now paying for their exertions, reports Tobias Gourlay in his weekly Spanish football column....
No comments:
Post a Comment