Thursday, February 17, 2011

Champions League Betting: Roma v Shakhtar Donetsk

Champions League RSS / Tobias Gourlay / 15 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Eduardo has converted one in every two chances he's been given in this season's Champions League.

Eduardo has converted one in every two chances he's been given in this season's Champions League.

"Shakhtar should certainly create a few chances against a team that lacks a true holding midfielder and whose defence is often isolated."

Shakhtar might be rusty, but they can still dent Claudio Ranieri's hopes of extending his tenure at Roma much longer, says Tobias Gourlay.

Roma coach Claudio Ranieri is missing first-choice goalkeeper Julio Sergio and playmaker David Pizarro on Wednesday night. At least one of Francesco Totti and Jeremy Menez should return to the team after starting on the bench at the weekend.

Shakhtar Donetsk have not played a competitive game for more than two months. Mircea Lucescu's side overcame similar calendar-related disadvantages to win the UEFA Cup a couple of years ago, but this is the first time they have have been put to the test in the knockout stages of the Champions League. Brazilian playmaker Fernandinho is still recovering from a broken leg and will not take any part in this game.

Match Odds

Shakhtar qualified from their group ahead of Arsenal. Lucescu, who has coached in Italy and tasted success in the Stadio Olimpico with Pisa and Brescia many years ago, has assured Roma that his team will be 'hard to beat' in this tie.

The market is listening, to some extent, and makes Roma less likely to win than not ([2.12]). Although the Italians' poor domestic form - one point from nine in February and 8th place overall in Serie A - also has something to do with this.

Under / Over

Roma are the only team among the last 16 who have not kept a clean sheet in the Champions League this season. Shakhtar scored seven times in three group-stage away games, which all went Over 2.5 Goals. The visitors' lack of a match fitness is a concern, but the numbers say Over 2.5 Goals is too long at [2.24]. All three of Roma's group-stage home games went that way too.

To Score

Shakhtar should certainly create a few chances against a team that lacks a true holding midfielder and whose defence is often isolated. Who better than Eduardo to be on the end of those chances? Well, there are probably a few you can think of, but the ex-Arsenal striker has scored three goals from only six shots in the competition so far.

Meanwhile, Roma forward Marco Borriello has scored in four of his last five Champions League appearances. With creative support from Totti or Menez or both, the Italian international should get opportunities to further improve his good record.

Best Bet: Back Eduardo To Score at [6.0]
Recommended Bet: Back Marco Borriello To Score at [3.0]

You can now follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

Shakhtar might be rusty, but they can still dent Claudio Ranieri's hopes of extending his tenure at Roma much longer, says Tobias Gourlay....

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