Champions League 
/ James Eastham / 14 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Rafael van der Vaart is on offer at a better price than the stats would suggest
"Attack is normally the best form of defence where Redknapp is concerned, while 52% of Milan’s home games in all competitions this season have had over 2.5 goals."
There's not much to choose between these two according to the several stats at our disposal and the one price that stands out is that on the over 2.5 goals, says James Eastham.
Introduction
Antonio Cassano, Mark van Bommel and Urby Emanuelson are ineligible, while Andrea Pirlo, Kevin-Prince Boateng and Massimo Ambrosini are injured. Gennaro Gattuso and Mathieu Flamini are set to start in midfield, with Alexandre Pato likely to partner Zlatan Ibrahimovic up front.
Luka Modric and Gareth Bale are doubts, with latest reports suggesting Bale has been ruled out. Rafael van der Vaart looks like he will recover in time to feature.
Match Odds
Looking at group-stage form, you have to say the teams have a 50-50 chance of going through. Spurs picked up 11pts to qualify ahead of Inter, while Milan collected 8pts to finish second behind Real Madrid.
Spurs have 47pts from 26 Premier League games (1.81pts a game) and Milan 52pts from 25 Serie A games (2.08pts a game), although the Premier League rates higher in Uefa's co-efficient rankings.
Milan's home figures are good rather than outstanding: W1-D1-L1 in the group stages was unimpressive but they're a better W8-D3-L2 in the league. Spurs earned just 2pts from three away games in the group phase and lost at Young Boys Berne (3-2) in the final qualifying round.
Milan's price of [1.80] to win on the night seems fair, and the 'To Qualify' prices are right as there's little to choose between the teams.
Under / Over
Spurs' four away games in the competition have averaged 5.5 goals a game. We're unlikely to see five or six goals here but I'd rather back over 2.5 goals at [1.95] than unders at a similar price. Attack is normally the best form of defence where Redknapp is concerned, while 52% of Milan's home games in all competitions this season have had over 2.5 goals.
To Score
Ibrahimovic proved he can score against English opponents by netting against Arsenal in last season's competition. Milan's four-goal top scorer in this season's tournament heads the 'To Score' market alongside team-mate Pato at [2.4]. Robinho is [2.75] and Clarence Seedorf, potentially competing against the Brazilian for a place in the starting line-up, [6.0].
Rafael van der Vaart, with two goals, is [4.5]. That's a good price on a player who has scored 12 times in 23 games in all competitions since moving to north London. Based purely on those stats, van der Vaart's price would be around [2.0].
Best Bet: Milan v Tottenham over 2.5 goals @ [1.95].
Other Recommended Bet: Rafael van de Vaart in the 'To Score' market @ [4.5].
There's not much to choose between these two according to the several stats at our disposal and the one price that stands out is that on the over 2.5 goals, says James Eastham....
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