The Punter 
/ Steven Rawlings / 13 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Phil Mickelson after his fourth Pebble Beach success
“As Mickelson was propelling himself up the leaderboard at a rate of knots, Woods was missing putts from a few feet and dropping shots like confetti at a wedding. He seems to have lost that steely nerve and the once invincible now looks vulnerable. “
Phil Mickelson wins the AT & T Pebble Beach National as Tiger Woods falters in the mix once more. Read Steve's thoughts on this week's events here...
It all came down to putting at the Dubai Desert Classic - Raphael Cabrera-Bello rolled in the vital ones, particularly for birdie on the 17th, whilst Lee Westwood missed chance after chance and the Spaniard prevailed by one to win his second title, following his win at the Austria Open in 2009.
In the States, Phil Mickelson played some inspired stuff to claim his third AT & T Pebble Beach title in eight years and his fourth in total. For the third week in-a-row on the PGA Tour someone had entered the final round with a substantial lead, only to let it slip. This week it was the turn of Charlie Wi. The Korean four-putted the first green to make double-bogey and was always up against it after that. To his credit, he rallied to claim second place, birdying the last three holes.
My Bets
I entered the weekend with very high hopes in Dubai with both Thomas Bjorn and Martin Kaymer right in the thick of it but by the time they'd played three holes on Sunday I knew I had no chance. In stark contrast, I entered the final round at the AT & T with very little hope of turning the week's fortunes around and then up popped Lefty - backed before the off at [26.0].
Few things in life give me greater pleasure than watching Mickelson in full flow when I've backed him and his eight under par 64 was a joy to watch. There were par saves from 20 feet plus, a tee-shot to within a few feet, an eagle and birdies aplenty. This was vintage Lefty and not for the first time it came from almost nowhere.
I layed plenty of my wager back, at all rates down from [1.88] to [1.01], but it was a tremendous result and one I'll remember for a long time.
Players to swerve
I'd highlighted Lee Westwood's record when he's right in the mix yesterday and it makes for even worse reading today. Incredibly, he's now zero from twelve when he's either tied for the lead, leading by one, or trailing by one, going into the final round. If he's built up a decent lead, like he did recently at both the Thailand Golf Championship and Nedbank Challenge, he's able to coast home but without clear water between himself and the field, he seems to struggle. As already stated, his putting yesterday was dreadful and I fancy nerves have something to do with that and he remains one to treat with caution when bang in-contention on a Sunday.
Only two weeks ago I wrote "There is a slight chance that the ruthless and clinical closer that Woods once was is a thing of the past and he may just be worth taking on at short odds the next time he finds himself in with a good chance. I fancy he's bound to be shorter than he should be." So who did I fancy as the danger at the AT & T with a round to go? Tiger Woods.
Apart from a short spell on Friday, Mickelson hadn't impressed and I fancied the leaders, Wi and Ken Duke might struggle and that Woods looked a fair price at around [3.85]. Mercifully, I didn't back him because he was quite frankly abysmal. Where's the old Tiger gone? As Mickelson was propelling himself up the leaderboard at a rate of knots, Woods was missing putts from a few feet and dropping shots like confetti at a wedding. He seems to have lost that steely nerve and the once invincible now looks vulnerable.
I'm sure those that followed Paul Krishnamurty's advice and layed Tiger in both the top-five and top-ten markets had resigned themselves to paying out but the once mighty Woods was so bad yesterday that his three over par 75 saw him slip from third place to 15th to put his layers in clover.
What have we learnt for next year?
Don't back Rory McIlroy over the weekend in Dubai, a pattern has definitely emerged. In each of the last four years he's started off like a rocket but when he gets to the weekend the rocket starts malfunctioning. Even when he won the event in 2009 there were stumbles over the last two days and he's worth taking on if he starts well again next year. As to why it happens? He often starts to tread water when he hits the front early in tournaments but I think there's more to it than that here. The course changes considerably as the week goes on. The smallest change in wind speeds changes the yardages significantly and the greens vary in speed from one day to the next and I'm not sure he's able to adapt as well as he should. We've all seen what he's capable off in benign conditions but I still have my doubts about him when it's not so easy.
The Race to Dubai moves from the Middle East to India this week with the Avantha Masters, where Cabrera-Bello will be attempting to go back-to-back. Whilst in the States, a first-rate field, including world number one Luke Donald, lines up at Riviera for the Northern Trust Open. I'll be back tomorrow with previews of both events.
Steve's out of the game as they close out the event in Dubai so he's taken a good look at the state of play in California where Tiger looks the man to beat......
Steve runs the rule over this week's US PGA Tour event, what's it going to take to win at Pebble?...
Our man takes a good look at the last leg of the Middle East Swing, where Rory McIlroy's a warm order, but is he value?...
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