Premier League 
/ Andrew Atherley / 01 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Good Long shots. Shane Long's West Brom are backing away from home against teams outside the top six.
"Against teams outside the big six, West Brom’s away record is won five, drawn two and lost one, which makes them one of the best-performing teams in that category."
A high-scoring match is expected when Manchester United travel to Stamford Bridge at the weekend and West Brom are worth siding with against teams outside the top six away from the Hawthorns, writes Andrew Atherley.
Sunday's showdown between Chelsea and Manchester United may not be the title decider we have come to expect in recent seasons but, with the prospect of plenty of goals, it should be as riveting as usual for armchair punters.
The emergence of a big six has made the Premier League a more exciting place, with the United-Chelsea monopoly starting to be broken up, and the intense competition for the top places has also heightened the entertainment factor.
Of the 18 matches played between the big six this season, 13 (72 per cent) have had over 2.5 goals and seven (39 per cent) have had over 3.5 goals. The main drag on those figures is low-scoring Liverpool, who have had the second-fewest matches with over 2.5 goals in the Premier League this season.
With Liverpool matches factored out of the equation, the percentage of matches with over 2.5 goals between the other five members of the big six is 83 per cent (50 per cent over 3.5 goals).
Individually, Chelsea and United follow the percentages. Chelsea have had four out of five over 2.5 goals in big-six clashes and United have had five out of six. Neither team has failed to score in that category, so everything appears set for another high-scoring match on Sunday and over 2.5 goals looks an attractive bet at [1.94]
Breaking down a team's form into its constituent parts often reveals a hidden gem - and West Brom's away record is certainly worthy of close examination.
Overall the Baggies appear to have been treading water this season and, with most of the media emphasis on the negative, the major talking point has been their poor home form.
Roy Hodgson's team have scored the fewest goals at home - a measly eight in 11 matches at the Hawthorns - and have won only twice in front of their own fans. The gloom deepened on Saturday with an FA Cup fourth-round 2-1 defeat at home to Norwich - a repeat of the scoreline in the equivalent Premier League fixture a fortnight earlier.
While fans at the Hawthorns have endured a miserable season, West Brom's travelling supporters have been rewarded with a much more enjoyable experience. With five wins out of 11 on the road, Hodgson's team rank fifth on away form in the Premier League and their record is bettered only by the four teams in the Champions League places.
On closer examination, the figures point to a betting angle. Three of West Brom's four defeats on the road have been against teams from the Premier League's big six and the other was against Swansea, who rank seventh on home form.
Against teams outside the big six, West Brom's away record is won five, drawn two and lost one, which makes them one of the best-performing teams in that category.
Nor is it a flash in a pan, because the Baggies have done well on the road ever since Hodgson took charge almost a year ago. In that period, West Brom's overall away record is won seven, drawn five and lost five.
Only two of those defeats were against teams outside the big six, from 13 matches played, and West Brom have a win rate in excess of 50 per cent (seven out of 13) in that category.
That makes them a solid, and probably underrated, proposition away to Fulham on Wednesday night. Their excellent success rate makes them worth considering for the win at [4.7] and their hard-to-beat profile is a good fit off +0.5 on the Asian handicap at [2.02].
Pick of the stats
Arsenal v Blackburn
Robin Van Persie has scored in eight of his last 10 home starts for Arsenal
Liverpool v Tottenham
Tottenham's 2-0 win at Anfield in May is the only defeat for Liverpool in 22 home games against top-flight opposition in all competitions since Kenny Dalglish's return
Recommendations
West Brom off +0.5 on the Asian handicap v Fulham at [2.02]
Over 2.5 goals in Chelsea v Man United at [1.94]
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